RealClearPolitics.com, the best of the poll sites this year, has rated the performance of the pollsters–both in the national race and at the state level. The state results differ slightly from the results I reported recently from Polipundit. RealClearPolitics reports in part:
At the national level the answer to the question is pretty straightforward. Ed Goeas’s GW-Battleground Vote Projection and Pew Research got it exactly right. Goeas’s final Battleground projection was Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.8, Nader 0.5 and Pew’s final allocation was 51-48-1.
CBS News/NY Times also nailed the final spread in the race (Bush +3), though they didn’t allocate undecideds which makes their final less impressive than Battleground’s and Pew’s.
Raghavan Mayur at TIPP also deserves a mention for outperforming almost all of the big media pollsters and coming in just a tick off the final results with their final Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.0, Nader 1.1 projection. Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports also had a solid final result with their Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5 final projection.
USA Today/CNN/Gallup finished poorly this year. Ironically, Gallup would have finished at or near the top of the list had they allocated undecideds 50/50 like Pew, as opposed to giving what appears to be 100% of the undecideds to Kerry.
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