Congrats to the US National Team, which punched its ticket to World Cup 2010 with a wonderful victory over Honduras last night (no small feat — the Hondurans were 8–0 in WC qualifying matches before their loss yesterday).
But the real drama is down in South America, with the Argentines. Argentina is on any soccer fan’s short list of teams that could easily win the whole tournament — with the single possible exception of Brazil, no country has as many spectacular, world-class players at all positions, and you could easily field two separate squads of Argentines that could hold their own against anyone in the world. Or so you would think, anyway — in fact, Argentina’s had real problems getting its act together during qualifying, and they’re hanging by a thread. They entered play last night (a home game against last-place Peru) in 5th place — only the top 4 from South American get an automatic qualification, with the 5th place team has to endure a two-game playoff against the 4th place team (probably Costa Rica) from the N. American division. In the midst of their qualifying campaign they appointed soccer god Diego Maradona as their coach — an odd, possibly inexplicable move (given, among other things, Maradona’s complete lack of any coaching experience at any level), and they had suffered three straight defeats and looked headed for the exit — a win against lowly Peru was an absolute must. [There’s a good highlights video of the game posted at the NY Times soccer blog] Argentina scores early in the second half to take a 1–0 lead, but, unbelievably, the Peruvians tie it up in the last minute of regulation time. With 4 minutes of extra time added on, the Argentines go on the attack, and at 3:55 get the winning goal — scored by Martin Palermo, a guy who had last played for the national team ten years ago when, in a truly mind-boggling feat of nerves and lack of composure, he flubbed not one, not two, but three penalty kicks in a game against Colombia — ah, sweet redemption!
The setup for the final match of qualifying this coming Wednesday couldn’t be more exciting — the standings now have Argentina in 4th place with 25 points, Uruguay in 5th place with 24 points, and Ecuador in 6th with 23 points. Argentina plays Uruguay (in Montevideo) on Wednesday — a win by either team (3 points) guarantees them the 4th qualification spot. A loss, though, could see Ecuador vaulting over them both if Ecuador can beat the Chileans in Chile (the Chileans, having already qualified in 3rd place, might be expected to put a somewhat weaker side on the field than they would in other circumstances). It doesn’t get any better than this, soccer fans — as a neutral observer (OK, it’s true, I bet $50 several months ago on Argentina to win the world cup [at 5–1], so I guess I’m not entirely neutral) it’s almost inconceivable that we might have a world cup without Argentina, but there you have it. If any of you have any business down in South America on Wednesday, don’t expect anyone to be getting any work done –
Martinned says:
After us Dutch missing out on the 2002 world cup, there’s an odd sort of satisfaction to see one of the other football gods in trouble like this. (Actually, there’s similar and even more satisfying trouble in Europe for Portugal, though their win yesterday should see them through.)
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October 11, 2009, 11:37 amPeteP says:
And President Obama has been nominated for the Heismann Trophy :-)
( sorry, couldn’t resist :-) )
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October 11, 2009, 11:54 amJohn Singleton says:
Shouldn’t that stat be the Hondurans were 8–0 at home? We beat them in the United States this summer.
If they were 8–0 in qualifying, they would’ve punched their ticket to South Africa long ago.
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October 11, 2009, 11:56 amAlberto Hurtado says:
As a Chilean-American let me tell you that we are not going to field a “scrub” or “lessor” team for the last game primarily because we know that we’ll have a chance to stick it to Argentina. Additionally, Chile’s technical director (head coach, in American speak) is a very prominent Argentinian and he will a) want to avoid any impression of impropriety and b) want to stick it to his country’s soccer federation for hiring Maradona to run the team. Oh it’s on!
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October 11, 2009, 12:07 pmMark Field says:
Albert Hurtado, I don’t understand your point. The best way for Chile to “stick it” to Argentina is for Chile to lose to Ecuador. Why, then, do you think Chile will do its best to win?
Turning to the post, it’d be a shame to watch a WC without Messi (or, for that matter, Cristiano Ronaldo; Portugal is in slightly better shape but still at risk). I truly cannot understand the decision to hire Maradona nor why the Argentine Federation has stuck by him.
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October 11, 2009, 12:57 pmVisitor Again says:
What a ludicrous decision by the Argentine Football Federation to install Maradona as technical director in the first place. While he remains an inspirational figure, he plainly lacks the attributes necessary for a national team coach. He’s incapable of managing his own life, let alone a national side.
He has selected more than 60 players in his short time in charge, and some of the selections and omissions have been mystifying. Lately, much to the dismay of many Argentina fans, he has brought in several older players, including Palermo, who is in his mid-30s.
I saw Palermo play for Argentina against Mexico at the Los Angeles Coliseum in the late 1990s, when he was still Argentina’s golden boy before his failure to put in three penalty kicks in a single match, against Colombia. Palermo did, however, score two goals in a recent friendly match defeat of Ghana, an occasion the Argentine match commentator, with the typical grace of those associated with Argentine football, marked by declaring “you @#$%^ nigger,” as heard at the 2:15 mark of this YouTube video. Some people hear the middle word as “fucking,” but I thought it was “bastard.” The third word, however, is unmistakable.
I will be fervently hoping Argentina go out this Wednesday, largely because of Maradona’s Hand of God goal against England and all that I’ve seen on and off the pitch when Argentina play. Yet I think Chile will field its strongest team against Ecuador although already qualified, just as maestro Fabio Capello fielded his first team against Ukraine yesterday although England already had qualified. England endured their first qualifying loss, 1–0. That almost ensured Ukraine will qualify at the expense of Croatia, who put England out of the European Championship final tournament in 2008. What goes around comes around.
So I think an Ecuador victory over Chile and a Uruguay victory over Argentina are too much to hope for. Not that that means I won’t be hoping for it. It is more likely, however, that Argentina will either qualify outright Wednesday or at least secure fifth place and a playoff with the fourth place CONCACAF team, Costa Rica or Honduras, at which point I would cheer for the CONCACAF team to put Argentina out.
As an England fan, I have hoped for a Germany victory in a match only twice in more than 60 years of following football–when they played Argentina in the finals of World Cups 1986 and 1990.
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October 11, 2009, 1:02 pmRuss says:
Um, Honduras was 8–0 at home, not in the tournament, or else they’d already be in.
Also, since Costa Rica is now in third, and playing a US team that has already made it, I’d wager it’ll be Honduras in that playoff against Argentina.
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October 11, 2009, 1:46 pmFedya says:
Cristiano Ronaldo
More amazing is that Bosnia qualified for the play-offs yesterday.
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October 11, 2009, 2:56 pmwlpeak says:
What’s Soccer?
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October 11, 2009, 3:46 pmVisitor Again says:
“maestro Fabio Capello fielded his first team against Ukraine yesterday although England already had qualified. England endured their first qualifying loss, 1–0. That almost ensured Ukraine will qualify at the expense of Croatia, who put England out of the European Championship final tournament in 2008. What goes around comes around.”
I think this excerpt from my earlier post is slightly inaccurate. I keep forgetting that in determining who finishes second in all groups except the single group that has only five teams, FIFA discards the results against the sixth, last place team. By my calculations, that means that Ukraine already have secured second spot in their group and thus a playoff spot and that Croatia is now out of the World Cup. Even the news reports from the wire services are getting this wrong. I don’t think I’m wrong on this, but please correct me if I am.
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October 11, 2009, 4:43 pmEdward Lee says:
Argentina at 5:1? That can’t possibly have been the best price around ~6 months ago, can it? I forget what their qualifying situation was back then, but on Betfair right now they’re 10.5:1.
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October 11, 2009, 5:12 pmjcm says:
The next WC will be win by Brazil or Argentina. Argentina has the greatest chance since teams that crawl into the Cup usually are the winners. Teams winning it all like Brazil usually fail in the final. But soccer´s God is brazilian
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October 11, 2009, 5:37 pmjcm says:
Argentina won yesterday thanks to an offside goal. But referees don t see fault by the big selections
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October 11, 2009, 6:24 pmAGD says:
I dont want to sound as a sore loser but as a Peruvian, could I just add that the referee did not call a clear penalty in favor of Peru and that adding 4 minutes of overtime was by far exagerated? I have to admit that we haven’t been at our best this qualifiers, but we did came close to tying the match with pretty much a reserve team (we’ve played the entire qualifiers without 5 of our usual starters).
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October 11, 2009, 7:53 pm[insert here] delenda est says:
I don’t particularly like them, but have you heard of the Spanish team? They speak the same language as the Argentinians, if that helps.
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October 11, 2009, 9:37 pmdave j says:
with the single possible exception of Brazil, no country has as many spectacular, world-class players at all positions, and you could easily field two separate squads of Argentines that could hold their own against anyone in the world
– have you heard of spain, holland , england and several other european nations. europe is where football is at, currently south american football is a lower standard. brazil will crumble against the spain or holland.
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October 11, 2009, 10:12 pmFedya says:
I thought that was only for determining which of the nine second-place teams was worst and will therefore miss out on the playoff. I’m pretty certain Norway will be the worst of the second-place teams.
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October 11, 2009, 10:52 pmredc1c4 says:
why all the fuss and bother about this?
its only soccer. let’s talk about something important,like college football.
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October 11, 2009, 11:12 pmjorge c. says:
mr. post: in South America there was three giants, Argentina, Brazil... and Uruguay!!! we (Uruguay) are now a bit “devaluated”, but we have, as Argentina 2 World Championships and 2 gold Olimpic Medals... and playing now with us are Forlán y Luis Suarez. so please wait and don’t bet... remember Maracana!!!
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Hugo Sanchez says:
Diego has killed himself by purposefully not selecting players from River Plate and relying on player from Boca. He even refused to play in River’s stadium due to his hate of River. He would have no one to blame but himself if they don’t go through.
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October 12, 2009, 12:42 pmVisitor Again says:
Fedya: I thought that was only for determining which of the nine second-place teams was worst and will therefore miss out on the playoff. I’m pretty certain Norway will be the worst of the second-place teams.
______
Yes, Fedya, you’re right (as was my first post).
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October 12, 2009, 1:06 pmspot says:
Thanks for this post– I might actually go out and watch these games and I never would have even known about it other than this posting.
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October 12, 2009, 1:59 pmRuss says:
redc1c4,
College football(FBS) is not a real sport. When the champion is determined by a bunch of journalists rather than playing it out on the field, it’s a “game,” not a sport. Sports produce real champions.
Boise State — the TRUE 2006 National Champions!
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October 12, 2009, 2:35 pmVisitor Again says:
I’m not surprised when the successor states to Yugoslavia do well in football. Yugoslavia nearly always fielded a superb national team, at one time hailed as the Brazil of Europe because of their beautiful football. It appears that one of the successor states will qualify outright, two will secure playoff positions, and one will miss the playoffs by the narrowest of margins. The two other successor states to Yugoslavia have turned in creditable performances.
Serbia have qualified outright by securing first place in Group 7 over France. Slovenia are almost certain to finish second in Group 3 because they are two points ahead of the Czech Republic and need only defeat pointless San Marino away in the remaining match to secure a playoff position. Bosnia have won a playoff position by securing second position in Group 5 behind only Spain and ahead of Turkey and Belgium. Croatia, a single point behind second-place Ukraine in Group 6 thanks to Ukraine’s 1–0 victory over 10-man England on Saturday, will probably fail to gain a playoff position by a hair, since Ukraine will meet pointless Andorra in the final match.
The other two successor states to Yugoslavia in the competition, Montenegro and FYR Macedonia, are well out of the running for the playoffs, but they are not group doormats.
Bosnia has a population of a bit more than four million, but given that it is in a region which has a superb footballing tradition, that is sufficient to field a first-rate team. It is true the Bosnian national side fared poorly at first, but that is not surprising given the domestic turmoil it has endured over the past two decades, and comparative stability has enabled assembly of a squad reflecting the true quality of the football of which Bosnia is capable.
By comparison, look at the United Kingdom, which FIFA allows to field four national sides since it is the birthplace of the modern game. England are in, but the other three, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are out. The successor states to Yugoslavia have done much better than the national sides from the U.K. The performances of these successor states reveals the astonishing depth of quality in the former Yugoslaviae .
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October 12, 2009, 4:53 pmjorge c. says:
hugo sanchez??? that hugo sanchez???
again, the first world champion was uruguay, winning 4 to 2 against argentina... in this side of world it’s called “un clásico” (a classic) uruguay/argentina have a long, long history of matches, some beautiful, some horrendous, but all of them, epics. i think none of you understand what it represents for us (argetinians and uruguayans)
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October 12, 2009, 5:19 pmVisitor Again says:
I think some of us–those who have followed the game for a long time–do understand even though the match is nowhere near as important to us. That’s because the national teams we support have their own rivalries. I’ve been an England fan since just after the end of World War II. Our biggest rivalry used to be with Scotland It was the oldest rivalry in international football since the two teams first met in 1872 in the world’s first international match. We played Scotland every year, but that tradition ended in 1990. Now I suppose our biggest rival is Germany, although the blood pressure also goes up very high when we meet Argentina in competitive play.
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October 12, 2009, 5:56 pm