Nate Silver — the fellow who built FiveThirtyEight.com into one of the more successful and sophisticated predictive electoral sites on the Web, and who was remarkably prescient in his electoral vote predictions in the 2008 Presidential election — has now cast his net over more profound and important prey: the world of international soccer. As soccer fans are well aware, the “official” rankings of the world’s national teams, prepared by FIFA, are, and have always been, absurd — widely discounted and often derided by serious fans everywhere. [A few years back, for example, the US team was ranked fourth (!!) in the world – and the current FIFA rankings have such oddities as Croatia at #8, USA at #11, and Switzerland at #13). Working with espn.com, Silver has devised the “Soccer Power Index” as a new predictive tool (just ahead, of course, of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa). Soccer’s a tough game to handicap in the best of circumstances, and I haven’t had much of a chance to study Silver’s lengthy explanations of his new algorithms – but Silver’s track record is too good to ignore, and if I were a betting man I’d certainly want to take a good long look at what he’s come up with.
Cornellian says:
I predict this will not be the most heavily commented thread in the history of the Volokh Conspiracy.
November 15, 2009, 10:40 amWonkoTheSane says:
For those who aren’t aware, before he became known for his political predictions, Silver was well known for his work on predictive modeling for baseball players.
November 15, 2009, 11:04 amLN says:
Silver’s election predictions were solid but not “remarkably prescient.”
November 15, 2009, 11:09 amguy in the veal calf office says:
Silver’s baseball projections, while weighty and complicated, aren’t much better than more simple models. His outliers are often ridiculous.
November 15, 2009, 11:19 amPersonFromPorlock says:
I haven’t the time, so just consider soccer bashed, with a couple of cutting asides about hockey.
November 15, 2009, 12:09 pmMark Field says:
I did read Nate’s description of his system. Seems reasonable to me, though I don’t believe it accounts for players out of position. To clarify, he basically weights the importance of prior games played and the quality of the players who played in it. But sometimes players fill in at positions other than their usual ones. For example, yesterday the US had Jonathan Spector as a central defender. He was there because of injuries to other players and is unlikely to play that position in the WC because his usual position is right back (sometimes left back).
If the system fails to account for players out of position, then it may overrate a team. If he does account for this, I missed it.
While I respect Nate’s work both at BPro and at 538, my instinct tells me the US is overrated at 14th.
I don’t know if you saw it David, but Beckham’s pass to Donovan in the second Chivas game (the one which led to the PK) was probably the greatest pass I’ve ever seen. The TV replay is good, but watching it live (at least from my seat) was awe inspiring.
November 15, 2009, 12:38 pmNessuno says:
David, you site the USA FIFA ranking at 11 as an “oddity”, and yet the SPI has them at 16…not a huge discrepancy.
And given the fact that the US got to the final of the Confederations cup and was handily beating Brazil until they decided to play the soccer equivalent of the “prevent defense”, why on earth would you denigrate them?
Not withstanding the major injuries to the American lineup (which aren’t accounted for on the FIFA rankings), you could make a strong argument that they should be higher.
November 15, 2009, 12:40 pmBA says:
The World Cup needs to be replaced with a BCS-like system. I see this ranking algorithm as a step in the right direction.
November 15, 2009, 12:48 pmSoronel Haetir says:
Wouldn’t out-of-position players tend to underrate a team? I’m assuming that a player normally is positioned where they are strongest, so filling in somewhere else would seem to indicate depth. I am also assuming that a fill-in player is generally not as good at a particular position as the person they are replacing.
What am I missing?
November 15, 2009, 12:53 pmjcm says:
Brasil 75% will be World Champion
November 15, 2009, 1:44 pmArgentina could be 25%.
All champions have been home club or previous champions but for Germany ( in Switzerland anyway) and Brasil ( in Sweden)
No european team has win ever outside Europe
Only Brasil has win in the other continent( Sweden 1958)
Brasil won in 3 out of 4 World Cups outside the two main host subcontinent ( Mexico 1970 , USA 1994, and Korea-Japan 2002). Argentina won the other (Mexico 1986, with the hand of god).
Most champions have won again in the next chance to do ( playing again in their continent or wherever in case of Brasil). Brasil was champion in 2002, so they are in post to repeat.
The first cup in a new subcontinent or continent have been won each time by Brasil.
But team that are playing at top level before the Cup fail in the first round.
Underachievers in the year previous to the Cup usually are bound to reach the final.Like France that crawled to the second round in 2006 in way to the final in 2006 against the Italy that was unable to defeat the USA in a blood full ,9 vs 10 men ,game in a their way to the Championship. No other team scored against the gambling scandal tainted Italy but the USA. The same Italy that in 1982 with a player back from a 3 years suspension for gambling that was saved by the referee in the game between Peru and Cameroon. And then defeated one of the best team ever to play soccer, the 1982 Brasilian team to go against Germany. Germany that reached the Final thanks to a fixed game, they signed a non agresion pact with Austria to oust Libya ( they defeated germany 2-1). So Argentina even with Maradona as coach , Argentina could be the champion. Spain will go out in the second round
Mark Field says:
Nate’s system, assuming I’ve read it correctly, tries to account for how strong a national team is in a given game by who’s playing. This is necessary because friendlies often are seen as occasions for coaches to try out new players. Just because you’re playing Brazil doesn’t mean you’ll get the full Brazil starting lineup you’d see in a WC final.
But if a player plays out of position, Nate’s adjustment could overrate the quality of the team. Spector may very start for the US in the WC, but it’s very unlikely to be at central defender. Thus, the US shouldn’t get “credit” for having Spector on the field yesterday (or at least not as much).
As for the depth issue, I see that as having, say, Danny Alves and Maicon at right back for Brazil, i.e., two players who deserve to start. To me, depth doesn’t mean forcing players to play out of position, it means having enough at a position that you can fill in a “lesser” player who nevertheless has that as his normal position.
November 15, 2009, 2:46 pmBaseballhead says:
No more than anyone else’s, and Silver’s written about the weaknesses in his projection system before. Baseball projections, especially for young players and guys coming back from injury, are far more hit-and-miss than, say, election politics. And compared to, say, Zogby or some of the other professional polling groups, Silver did hit the 2008 election projections out of the park.
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November 15, 2009, 4:18 pmUncleWin says:
Italy at #13, five spots behind Uruguay? Stick to politics.
November 15, 2009, 5:05 pmEli Rabett says:
Croatia is really good, with excellent players right now who play in top European leagues. Switzerland, ok, you may have a case
November 15, 2009, 9:36 pmguy in the veal calf office says:
The only team to win more away games in qualifying than home games is….Slovakia. I have no idea what that might mean.
November 16, 2009, 9:35 pmVisitor Again says:
jcm says:
Germany that reached the Final thanks to a fixed game, they signed a non agresion pact with Austria to oust Libya ( they defeated germany 2–1).
________________
to oust Algeria, not Libya
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I was wondering if anyone knew anything about these professional sports ? I am thinking about signing up for this sports handicapping service. It looks pretty promising and its backed by a clickback guarantee which means your going to get your money back if you don’t like the system or it simply doesn’t work. Has anyone tried a service like this?
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