Bloggers: Scaled-back health legislation is likely. Split on effects of Citizens United.

Last week’s National Journal poll of political bloggers asked “What’s the most likely outcome this year of President Obama’s health care reform initiative?” The plurality choice on the Left, and the majority choice on the Right, was “Scaled-back legislation will be enacted.” I agreed: “Remember, even after the defeat of Hillarycare, many of its sub-elements were later enacted even by Republican Congresses. While time ran out on Hillarycare in the fall of 1994, this year the Obamacare supporters have nearly a year left to get something done.”

The second question asked about the political effects of the Citizens United decision. Seventy percent of the Left thought it would help Republicans a lot. Only 6 percent on the Right thought the same, while another 33 percent thought it would help a little. The leading choice on the Right was “not much impact.” That was my view, based on empirical experience: “Based on the experience of about half of the states, which never restricted the free speech rights of people in corporations, it’s hard to see much of a partisan impact from respecting the First Amendment.”