"Makes you feel so, sort of, insignificant, doesn't it?"
To quote Monty Python. Tom Smith has the sad truth here. An excerpt:
A voice, crying in the wilderness, and then just crying
By Tom Smith
I just got some new data back from Lexis, with whom I am engaged in a massive citation study, but that's another story. This data concerns law review articles that are in their Shepard's database and how much they get cited. This data covers about 385,000 law review articles, notes, comments, etc. etc. that appear in 726 law reviews and journals, and looks at how often they are cited. Cited by other law reviews, or cases.
First of all, 43 percent of the articles are not cited . . . at all. Zero, nada, zilch. Almost 80 percent (i.e. 79 percent) of law review articles get ten or fewer citations. ...
Update:
Now they're really piling on. Does anyone else feel a midlife crisis coming on?
I can't say the same for Jim Lindgren, who just posted one of the most overtly political diatribes I have seen in a while, but without comments enabled. And unfortunately, the very first claim he makes is completely false.
"As the Washington Post reported: “According to the former Niger mining minister, Wilson told his CIA contacts, Iraq tried to buy 400 tons of uranium in 1998.” So Wilson had found evidence that tended to confirm the substance of the sentence in Bush’s 2003 State of the Union address: “The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.”"
If Lindgren had followed his own link to the Washington Post article, he would have seen that his claim was false and that the Post had retracted it. Again, it would have been nice to post this in his comments section, or to e-mail him, but the link with his name at the right side of the page goes nowhere.
The remainder of the post, including the WSJ's provocative (yet unsourced and unsupported) claim, could be the subject of many fruitful hours of discussion, I'm sure, but I won't take up any more of Prof. Zywicki's space to do so, and I apologize to him for this intrusion.
I'm not sure who's idea it was to make publications the billable hour of academia, but it's too settled to change now I think. Much like a substantial portion of the lawyer's time is all for naught (hundreds of hours spent on a case lost, smaller bits of hours preparing motions denied, etc.), so can a professor's. In that perspective, this isn't that big of a deal.
This marks the day Volokh's blog has jumped the shark. Lindgren's post is a complete joke. Anyone who would defer to PowerLine cannot be taken seriously. PowerLine openly admits that it does not write things critical of conservatives (see their FAQs). John Hinderaker has accused Jimmy Carter of committing treason, he has stated on video which is available widely on the internet that all people to "the left of Lieberman and Zell Miller" are against America and want it to fail. Yet, Lindgren relies on them. Give me a break --- of course what they are writing is completely favorable to the administration. They NEVER criticize the administration.
Moreover, as anyone who has worked on criminal law knows, we don't know what Fitzgerald knows, we are not privy to the grand jury, and Fitzgerald has been very good about leaks (unlike Lindgren's apparent hero Ken Starr), yet Lindgren states that we can know that it is unlikely that a crime can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt --- give me a f---ing break!
Finally, Jim's "analysis" that the poor administration was forced to possibly out a CIA agent because they had no other way to counter WIlson's charges is completely outrageous. I am sure they could have argued their case on the merits without it. I seem to remember the previous administration dealing with new unfounded accusations every week (Clinton sold Coke, Clinton fathered bastard children, etc.), yet they didn't see it necessary to out CIA agents and commit other crimes to counter these charges.
Professor, your blog has jumped the shark with the right-wing hacks you let post here. Lindgren and Zywicki are jokes. This place used to be a place to read thoughtful, reasoned, nonpartisan analysis from generally right-wing/libertarian intellectuals. Now, it's a sorry excuse for PowerLine and Instapundit.
On a side note, I used to think that those constant admonitions to keep comments polite, respectful, and on-topic were unnecessary.
If he (or anyone) wants to get into whether any law was violated, based on the facts as alleged, fine, but I thought this wasn't The Corner, and I like it that way.
(Also, fwiw, should this website routinely engage in the promotion, attack, support or opposition of federal candidates for election, where Lindgren is leading, and if y'all have spent >$1000 in server and other costs, then, arguably, depending on how the FEC lays down its pending regs, the Conspiracy may become a political committee with legally enforceable reporting and disclosure requirements. Just saying, is all.)
Back on topic: my Comment, published at 1996 U Chi Legal F 495, is still in the <10 zone.
Rarely do I use a law review article. I mean I can't even remember the last time I did.
I agree about the comments concerning Zirwicki; he posts too much and they're not as good as Volok's.
Now it's possible for articles to be uniformly cited, but most human artifacts involving popularity have what's known as a Zipfian distribution. If you crank the numbers, and the number of law review articles is substantially greater than the square of the average number of citations in law review articles, you will get many uncited articles just by a counting argument.
The fact that law review articles can be cited by cases makes things a bit more complicated, but this may be uncommon. Cases can be cited by law review articles as well, but it could be a fact that the majority of uncited entities are cases.
385K entities were checked. If the number of citations in the average entity is substantially less than several hundred, we will have over half of the entities going completely uncited — as a consequence of graph theory and the Zipfian distribution.
-dk
Excellent point--now that you mention it, I recall reading that for "great" scholars in general (such as Nobel Prize economists), the distribution of citations for each author was similar to this. So, for instance, Coase actually wrote many, many articles--but only a handful of them have been cited more than a dozen times. Most of his, or anyone else's articles, largely disappear.
I remember the author making the point that those who write famous articles (that are cited a lot) often also write a lot more articles than the average scholar. And only rarely do they accurately predict in advance which of their articles will turn out to be significant, and which will be largely ignored. Often they are remembered for something completely different from what they thought would be their legacy.
If only 80% of law review articles sink without a trace they are out performing, Sturgeon's Law.