Nominating "Another O'Connor":

My colleague Nelson Lund says it is impossible to nominate "another O'Connor" to replace O'Connor:

First, even if one assumed the ideal replacement for Justice O'Connor would be another Justice O'Connor, the president could not possibly identify such an individual. Justice O'Connor's generally cautious and pragmatic approach to law means many of her significant votes depended on highly personal judgments about the likely practical effects of court decisions. Picking another pragmatist would actually guarantee we will not get the same judgments we got from Justice O'Connor. Every pragmatist is different.

He also says it would be unwise to try to nominate another O'Connor:

Second, Supreme Court candidates perceived as moderate, or even moderately conservative, almost always turn out to be leftists. History is filled with illustrations, from Harry Blackmun and John Paul Stevens to David Souter. If President Bush tries to find "another O'Connor," we will almost certainly end up with someone much more like "another Souter."

Hans Bader (mail):
Lund is absolutely right that justices evolve to the left. (Only Byron White was an exception, going from being a moderate to being a moderate-conservative).

I wonder why. Perhaps it is because of two factors. First, judges have a very socially liberal peer group. Bill Clinton beat the elder George Bush by only 6 percentage points in 1992, but defeated him by a landslide (almost a 2-to-1 margin) among lawyers.

Second, Supreme Court justices get so much more press coverage than lower court judges, making their predominantly liberal peer group more aware of any decisions that deviate from liberal orthodoxy. That publicity increases the social cost to them of rendering non-political or conservative decisions. That may be why "stealth" nominees like Souter end up quickly becoming liberals after being appointed to the Supreme Court.

Judge Silberman of the D.C. Circuit has given this phenomenon a name: the Greenhouse Effect, named after New York Times Supreme Court reporter Linda Greenhouse.

Justices who have evolved to the left, such as O'Connor and Souter, have received fawning coverage from the Times after doing so. By contrast, the Times ran an editorial denouncing Justice White when he announced his retirement after three decades of service on the Supreme Court.
9.24.2005 3:52pm
lralston (mail):
I thought this was the most interesting editorial on the Clinton picks and the Bush options. Hope it is okay to post it in its entirety.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/
commentary/la-oe-cass24sep24,0,983371.
story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions
"Invoking the Clinton Precedent
By Ronald A. Cass
AS WE AWAIT President Bush's nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, all the talk is about precedent. Roe vs. Wade: What does a judge do when a precedent is based on shaky legal ground? The Ginsburg Precedent: How much does a nominee have to answer, and how do you draw the line? Yet the most important precedent hasn't been mentioned: the Clinton Precedent.

To refresh our memories, President Clinton had a chance to make two appointments to the Supreme Court. The first came with the retirement of Justice Byron White, a conservative who cast one of the two votes against Roe vs. Wade. And just one year before his retirement, White, joining three other justices, dissented in the 5-4 pro-abortion decision in Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania vs. Casey.

With the court so closely divided, what did Clinton do to preserve the balance? Did he replace White with another conservative, someone equally clear that there is no constitutional protection for abortion? He chose the former general counsel of the American Civil Liberties Union, a leading liberal law scholar whose special interest was women's rights: Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Any question how close she was going to be to White?

The president did what presidents always do. He picked someone he thought would be a good justice according to his own views. He didn't worry about preserving the balance on the court, and he certainly didn't worry about maintaining the court's division over abortion.

With a 56-44 Democratic majority in the Senate, Clinton didn't worry about much other than replacing White with someone his party approved of and the GOP would credit as sufficiently accomplished to do the job. Ginsburg, the strongly pro-choice liberal judge and former law professor, fit that bill. Whether or not you like her positions on legal issues, Ginsburg is a smart, skillful lawyer and judge. And she garnered 96 of 99 votes cast on her confirmation — including the overwhelming majority of pro-life Republicans.

Of course, today, with a 55-45 Republican majority in the Senate and a Republican in the White House, liberal Democrats are singing a different tune. Now, they say, we need the president to be sensitive to keeping the court as it is, to preserving the division on issues such as abortion.

It's understandable that liberal Democrats would care about the Supreme Court. For more than half a century, the court has been pivotal in reducing the authority of the states, increasing the power of the federal government, eroding protections of property rights, tilting the legal balance from favoring religious worship to favoring atheism, and finding rights in the Constitution that no creative thinker in the nation's first 175 years ever imagined.

Much of the liberal political agenda that could not muster support at the polls has been achieved through the courts. Would voters sanction government taking private property from one person to give to another? Would they approve banning the Pledge of Allegiance as an unconstitutional intrusion of God into our public life?

Unless courts keep altering legal rules to facilitate liberal causes, Democrats label judges conservative activists, and view anyone who supports them as wanting to take us back to the days of segregated lunch counters and back-alley abortions. It's a mantra that worked against Robert Bork, so why not use it against everyone else?

It's time to return to the understanding that presidents get to pick the judges they want, as long as they're qualified for the job, and that senators are voting not on whether a nominee conforms to their preferences but on whether he or she shows the competence and temperament necessary to the judicial role. It's time to recognize the Clinton Precedent as the benchmark for what presidents do."
9.24.2005 3:54pm
Challenge:
I think Bush can't even think of going with another O'Connor. Even another Roberts would be a bad idea (hell, he may have already nominated another O'Connor!). To keep his base happy he needs to nominate a solid conservative (and verifiably anti-Roe) jurist who isn't afraid to defend originalism and claim a judicial philosophy, like Roberts was.
9.24.2005 5:02pm
CrazyTrain (mail):
I cannot take anyone seriously who throws around the word "leftists" to describes Justices Blackmun, Stevens, and Souter. The term "leftist" has connotations of communism and socialism, none of these Justices are anything but capitalists, who may have a little more sympathy for criminal defendants than their colleagues. I never took Zywicki seriously; now I know I can't take his buddy seriously.
9.24.2005 5:03pm
WB:
Posner!
9.24.2005 5:07pm
Stubbs (mail):
I don't recall that O'Connor became an ideal for Democrats until she announced her retirement. It would seem that the Democrats' liking her started when they faced the possiblity of a more conservative replacement.

Someone should ask them now if the like Scalia and Thomas, so that down the road we know what the argument will be when they retire. Will we then similarly be told that these two have been acceptable, but more conservative replacements are not? (This may sound farfetched, but if conservatives really reverse the liberal tide over the coming decades, it is something even liberals would do well to consider now, is it not?)
9.24.2005 5:09pm
Frank Drackmann (mail):
The Nominee doesnt HAVE to be an attorney right?? I say nominate Condoleeza Rice, let the white establishment liberals black ball her so to speak..and I'll bet she will be as conservative as any mainstream candidate in the long run, the only downside is she is doing a great job in the cabinet, and she would be an excellent VP candidate in 08.
9.24.2005 6:09pm
Volokh groupie (mail):
Crazytrain, are the only people who you take seriously those that operate along your sematic rules? While leftist may certainly carry certain connotations, so does 'right-wing' and to some on this blog both 'aclu' and 'federalist society' carry revolting connotations. If you really start to deconstruct terms in such a way, you may never be able to read another substantive academic work again.

Blackmun, Souter and Stevens are certainly left of center (this hardly means they are the same brand of left of center or that being left of center is even a bad thing). Calling them leftists certainly isn't that great a crime, because we're hardly suggesting Scalia and Thomas are Oaskeshotteans when we call them right wing/conservatives.

And for someone who claims to not take Prof. Zwickyi seriously, you certainly jumped on the opportunity to comment on his post and jump all over his choice of words.
9.24.2005 6:12pm
Bruce Wilder (www):
Nevermind trying to define political labels, like "leftist" or "right-wing", what about trying to define, "wise" or "unwise" in the context of the choice of a Justice?

What is the goal here? Partisan advantage? Unimpeded expedience in the criminal justice system? A cultural and sexual counter-revolution?

I am not a lawyer, but I do read some of the more famous or newsworthy opinions, and I am not particularly impressed, either by the work of historically important justices or much of the current crop. The most serious problem, which I personally see, is that so little attention has been paid to building a defensible system of constitutional interpretation, abstract from substantive results. "Magister" means "teacher", but the Justices do not seem to know that their job is to continuously teach the People, what their Constitution means.

Thomas seems to me to think he has such a philosophy, but it is so radical, and so callous, and often obnoxious, that I shudder at the prospect that he should ever become anymore than a minority of one. Scalia's formalism has some appeal, but he often throws it aside, to vote purely visceral, personal preferences; Scalia is way too arrogant and volatile; he thinks he has strong principles, but he's wrong; he has strong passions, which are far more chaotic.

I won't continue opining on individual justices, because it would result in too long a post, but the more "pragmatic" justices often seem to think they are Congressmen marking up a bill, or bureaucrats in a regulatory agency, drawing up detailed rules. There seems to be an unavoidable necessity for doing that work, but I can see why many fear that it devolves too much into "judicial activism."
9.24.2005 6:45pm
TomHynes (mail):
I read and enjoyed Cass's opinion piece, but he made a blatant mistake about Kelso with this hypothetical:

Would voters sanction government taking private property from one person to give to another?

The answer of course is not "yes" but "hell yes". As soon as voters discover that they can take other peoples property with the ballot box they go wild. (I am paraphrasing a famous quote that I am to lazy to google) That is why the founding fathers put in the 5th amendment.
9.24.2005 9:57pm
SimonD (www):
My problem with O'Connor-style minimism is that the aversion to declaring bright-line rules seemed to become almost pathological with Justice O'Connor. The trouble with that, it seems to me, is - what are lower courts supposed to make of it all? What are legislatures supposed to make of it all? The proximate effect is that it makes it very hard to know what the law is at any given time; it introduces a level of capriciousness into the legal process. How are legislatures supposed to write laws which conform with the constitution, and which are safe from legal action, if the court refuses to make clear statements as to what the law is? And because lower courts will necessarily be left befuddled by myriad balancing tests and uncertainty, their decisions will always be questionable and endlessly appealed, keep pressure on the supreme court docket. And, most importantly, keeping the court at the center of the action, requiring people to constantly come back to the court to resolve every problem which could be fixed at the district level with a clearly articulated bright-line rule. In effect, minimism allows the court to say "keep coming back to us and we will answer your problems if we feel so inclined".
9.24.2005 10:15pm
Volokh groupie (mail):
By the way Crazy Train, how do you feel about Cass Sunstein's categories of jurisprudence in his new book? Scalia and Thomas conveniently get the fundamentalist tag while Brennan and his ideological compatriots are the 'perfectionists'. Lakoff-ian if anything, no?
9.24.2005 11:49pm
SimonD (www):
What's the difference between a fundamentalist and a perfectionist? Surely they're two different ways of saying that people are unwilling to compromise on those things which are important to them.
9.25.2005 2:19am
David M. Nieporent (www):
The term "leftist" has connotations of communism and socialism, none of these Justices are anything but capitalists,

Tell it to Susette Kelo.
9.25.2005 8:54am
anonymous coward:
"Supreme Court candidates perceived as moderate, or even moderately conservative, almost always turn out to be leftists. History is filled with illustrations, from Harry Blackmun and John Paul Stevens to David Souter."

History illustrates--all the way back to Blackmun? (And those guys, leftists? Words fail.) I suspect this leftward-drifting tendency is specific to the last few decades, not an ironclad law for lifetime judges.

The fact that a liberal scholar as widely noticed (I refuse to term him "influential") as Sunstein advocates "judicial minimalism" suggests to me that the leftward-pressing forces could be passing us by.
9.25.2005 9:37am
AppSocREs (mail):
I'd like to second WB on Posner. I cannot understand why this experienced and respected federal judge is never even mentioned as a possible Supreme Court justice. My understanding is that he has the best record for non-reversal on appeal of any sitting US judge or magistrate. He is a brilliant intellectual and writer with, what appears to my non-lawyerly view, a deep understanding of the philosophy, foundations, and history of US law. Can someone post why this judge's name has not been raised by any of the pundits I've read so far.
9.25.2005 12:55pm
Volokh groupie (mail):
The difference between perfectionist and fundamentalist is insignificant to me, but may carry some interesting connotations for those like crazytrain. It was also obviously a more acceptable difference to some of the audience at a recent ACS event I was at.

To anonymous coward, the fact that Sunstein advocates 'judicial minimalism' doesn't necessarily mean 'leftward' forces have passed us by. While Sunstein advocates minimalism and even seems to praise bipartisan restraint, the important question is whether he does so at all times. For example, if some of the famous Warren Era and 3 Muskateer era decisions were reversed, would most minimalists still stay true to their philosophy? Or is this claim to minimalism just a safe position considering that many arguably 'perfectionist' decisions have already became long standing precedent? It's possible the leftward forces haven't passed us by, but instead have already been dominating for a long time.
9.25.2005 1:01pm
lee piazza (mail):
I don't know whether voters would approve banning The Pledge of Allegiance but no one would have judicially tried had not the Congress added "under God" in 1954(after a campaign by The Knights of Columbus).
9.25.2005 1:47pm
Challenge:
"I'd like to second WB on Posner. I cannot understand why this experienced and respected federal judge is never even mentioned as a possible Supreme Court justice."

Well, he writes on controversial subjects. If you don't know the answer to this question, you probably have no idea of the kind of things he as written over his career, nor of the outcome of some of his decisions as judge (over-turning partial birth abortion bans and referring to the doctors who perform them as "heros", for one).
9.25.2005 5:11pm
Russell Wardlow (mail) (www):
As regards the effect on a Judge's philosophy of getting sent to the Supreme Court:

If you ask Bork, he'll make the point that judges don't necessarily "go left" so much as "go elite." That is, they adopt the views of the elite class of opinion makers of Washington culture. Right now those people are almost unanimously very liberal/left. But in the early part of the century (goes Bork's arguments) the "elite" were not cultural or academic authorities but rather businessmen. Hence, you ended up with what are now considered activist laissez-faire decisions like Lochner.
9.25.2005 11:06pm
Observer (mail):
Posner is the outstanding jurist of his generation, heads and shoulders above the rest. He is the successor to Henry Friendly and Learned Hand. He would be a brilliant choice.

President Bush will not nominate Posner, will not even consider doing so, for two reasons:

1) He would never be confirmed. Posner has written many controversial articles because he has an original, inquiring mind and he is willing to challenge orthodoxies. The petty minds in the Senate, both Democrats and Republicans, would never tolerate this.

2) He is unpredictable. While generally liberterian in outlook, I think no one would be able to predict how Posner would vote on social hot button cases. Overruling Roe v. Wade? Who knows?

Like Posner, but a tad less controversial, would be Judge Easterbrook, another U. Chicago antitrust law professor now on the 7th Cir. For my money, he's the second best judge in the country. If you've never read an Easterbrook opinion, do so, and try to imagine him writing Supreme Court opinions. What a joy! Clear statements, logical reasoning, no phony balancing tests... Again, not a chance of him being nominated or confirmed.
9.26.2005 10:49am
Russell Wardlow (mail) (www):
I'm a fan of Posner as a legal theorist, not a judge. He is way too activist. When you read interviews with the guy, he is completely frank and up front about the judge's role being to actively improve society. Him and say, Breyer, are very much alike in this regard, they just have different conceptions of what "better" actually means. Breyer thinks it means more equality of results, more socially liberal policies, etc. For Posner, it means more economic rationality in the law. But both of them seem remarkably eager to use the power of the courts to effect their agendas.
9.26.2005 12:41pm
qwer (mail) (www):
http://movies.isthebe.st/index.html
10.17.2005 5:11am