The Volokh Conspiracy - "International Guarantees" and the "Peace Process":

Left-winger Aluf Benn, in Ha'aretz:

Katyushas and Qassam rockets, not demographics, now look like Israel's most pressing threat. Apparently, the international community, on whom Israel relied to deter Syria and Lebanon, and whose support was expected in the struggle against the Palestinians, has trouble coming up with the goods. The world is busy now with other problems. Another Israel-Arab war is the last thing its leaders need.

This, I'm afraid, is a key point. European governments and other members of the relatively responsible "international community" have been asking, or demanding, for some time that Israel take risks, especially territorial risks, for peace, in return for international support for Israel to live within its recognized borders. This has worked reasonably well in the case of Egypt, but Israel's withdrawal from Southern Lebanon and Gaza has not exactly mobilized the "international community" to crack down sufficiently on Hamas and Hezbollah. Indeed, while criticism of Israel has been relatively muted, nevertheless the predominant reaction to Israel's defense of its borders has been that Israel is "overreacting." I'd love to see what, for example, France's reaction would be if a neighboring country launched missles at its border cities and killed and kidnapped its soldiers!

The failure of international pressure to tame either Hezbollah or Hamas means that Israel's electorate is justifiably likely to take a significant turn to the right.

UPDATE: Schmuel Rosner of Ha'aretz already sees signs of the turn to the right:

I spent the morning of Wednesday talking to some hard-core left-wing Israelis. The thoughts they shared with me were quite clear: Hit them hard. Hezbollah, Beirut, Syria, whoever. Those who might have hoped for a more restrained response by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert should think again. It's not just the Arab leaders and the terrorists testing the new government - it's the Israelis too. And most Israelis already know that Olmert can be the moderate, restrained, rational kind of leader. Its Olmert the bully they want to see now - that is, if there is one.

	[David Bernstein, July 13, 2006 at 11:26am] Trackbacks "International Guarantees" and the "Peace Process": Left-winger Aluf Benn, in Ha'aretz: Katyushas and Qassam rockets, not demographics, now look like Israel's most pressing threat. Apparently, the international community, on whom Israel relied to deter Syria and Lebanon, and whose support was expected in the struggle against the Palestinians, has trouble coming up with the goods. The world is busy now with other problems. Another Israel-Arab war is the last thing its leaders need. This, I'm afraid, is a key point. European governments and other members of the relatively responsible "international community" have been asking, or demanding, for some time that Israel take risks, especially territorial risks, for peace, in return for international support for Israel to live within its recognized borders. This has worked reasonably well in the case of Egypt, but Israel's withdrawal from Southern Lebanon and Gaza has not exactly mobilized the "international community" to crack down sufficiently on Hamas and Hezbollah. Indeed, while criticism of Israel has been relatively muted, nevertheless the predominant reaction to Israel's defense of its borders has been that Israel is "overreacting." I'd love to see what, for example, France's reaction would be if a neighboring country launched missles at its border cities and killed and kidnapped its soldiers! The failure of international pressure to tame either Hezbollah or Hamas means that Israel's electorate is justifiably likely to take a significant turn to the right. UPDATE: Schmuel Rosner of Ha'aretz already sees signs of the turn to the right: I spent the morning of Wednesday talking to some hard-core left-wing Israelis. The thoughts they shared with me were quite clear: Hit them hard. Hezbollah, Beirut, Syria, whoever. Those who might have hoped for a more restrained response by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert should think again. It's not just the Arab leaders and the terrorists testing the new government - it's the Israelis too. And most Israelis already know that Olmert can be the moderate, restrained, rational kind of leader. Its Olmert the bully they want to see now - that is, if there is one.