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Seems Like an Interesting Site for Political Junkies,

or those who are planned on acquiring the habit in the next few months -- Election Projection - 2006 Edition. The post I link to discusses why generic "Will you vote for the Republican or the Democrat in November?" questions may be of limited use in predicting actual results. "Generic polls may uncover a sense of dissatisfaction with the majority party in Washington, but they do not seem, as head-to-head polls show, to indicate a willingness to kick the bums out. It's as though the electorate has grown weary of GOP control, but doesn't see the Democratic candidate in these closely-held GOP districts as a viable alternative." True or not? I don't know enough to tell, but it seems interesting.

The "Blogging Caesar" nickname, on the other hand, doesn't work for me, even though I've read the explanation.

Micah:
Statistically, Republicans do tend to perform better than generic polls suggest. However, that does not make these polls useless. What is interesting is not the absolute values produced by these polls as much as the change from one year to the next. To the extent that Republicans are having worse performance in generic polls in year X compared to year X-1, they are likely to perform less well in voting in year X, compared to X-1.

Wishful thinking is not going to change that.
8.18.2006 2:04pm
Jacob (mail):
During the 2004 election, Election Projection was one of the two most popular "big map of red states vs. blue states" sites, along with Electoral-Vote.com (which just may or may not start up again soon). I knew many who would go to both sites everyday (the former's commentary leans far to the right, and the latter's commentary leans well to the left). Their methods to aggregate different polls were slightly different, but both managed to predict every state correctly in 2004's easily predictable Presidential race.

As for his "dislike of Republicans does not equal Democratic success" epiphany...that'd be a bit more interesting if it hadn't been repeated by every pundit in the past two years. One can get that kind of "analysis" on a Sunday morning talkshow.

And before political junkies flock there en masse, I would suggest they stick to parts of the site specifically about polls. Commenting and feedback, for example, is something the "Blogging Caesar" is rather touchy about:


One more thing, I hold a deep and abiding respect for the Bible. I believe it is the inspired Word of God. So, belittling its significance and undermining its truths by saying such things as "it has been translated many times over the years and the meaning has changed" is just something I cannot endure.


Let's just say he's a bit quicker to pull the censorship trigger than anyone on the Conspiracy is known to be.
8.18.2006 2:11pm
Ship Erect (mail) (www):
How many of these polls ask if the respondents actually know which party is in control of Congress? From MyDD: "In 2002, 72% of the electorate believed that Democrats controlled the House of Representatives. That year, Democrats lost 6 seats in the House of Representatives."
8.19.2006 2:19am
plunge (mail):
Why would a site dedicated to electing memeber of one party exclusively do anything other than spin for their side?
8.19.2006 12:17pm