A very interesting piece, and quite different from the articles we were seeing a year ago at this time, with all quoted sources insisting that at worst the market was in for a "soft landing", but most arguing for continued 8% to 12% annual appreciation. Especially interesting is Bob Toll of homebuilder Toll Brothers stating that we are in a "hard landing." Toll raised eyebrows last July by selling tens of millions of dollars of his stock (noted here) while still insisting that he believed in his company's prospects. At the time, Toll shares were selling for around (a split-adjusted) $50 a share; they are now down to under $25. I reported on this blog last July that Toll, in what I think were unprepared remarks at a real estate summit, predicted a 20% correction at the high end, and I advised that "It's time to run for the hills." Toll now says that the market is much worse than he envisioned.
Advantage: Volokh Conspiracy!