The Volokh Conspiracy
[Todd Zywicki, September 21, 2006 at 8:06pm] Trackbacks
Dear Mr. Fantasy:

Of all the things I've ever written in my day, I suspect this one will be read by far more people than anything else.

This is a situation where I would sincerely love it if someone could prove me wrong.

nunzio:

It's more respectable than writing Penthouse forum.
9.21.2006 8:19pm
A.S.:
Prove you wrong that it will be your most-read piece of writing? Or prove you wrong that Brady is no longer a starting quality fantasy QB? :-)

You overstate the case against Brady, though. "Two stud running backs" seems a bit far, and when Doug Gabriel gets integrated into the offense, they should have enough decent receivers.
9.21.2006 8:23pm
Attorney SF (mail):
Just out of curiousity, what makes you think "Dear Mr. Fantasy" has reliable insights as to how Brady will perform?

But since Ben Watson is my starting TE, hear's to hoping the NE passing game wake up.
9.21.2006 8:26pm
Ron Hardin (mail) (www):
What is it, soap opera for men?
9.21.2006 8:26pm
logicnazi (mail) (www):
Well I think you've just made sure it's true by getting all of us who have read your other stuff and were never going to read the Mr. Fantasy letter to click on the link.
9.21.2006 8:59pm
Stick with Brady (www):
I've got Brady as well (and Pennington on the bench backing him up...). My thought is that his game will pick up and we're just seeing a slow start. Was he worth the relatively high pick I took him with? Probably not. But if he's what you've got, I'd stick with him (unless you've got Rex Grossman hanging around . . .)
9.21.2006 9:20pm
Hei Lun Chan (mail) (www):
From their first two games the Patriots are happy to run the ball 40 times a game if they can every week, so I doubt Brady will pile up the yardage like he did last year; I'd expect a dropoff of 1,000 passing yards. But he can probably still throw for 25 TDs since they love running play-action on first-and-goal.
9.21.2006 10:51pm
guest:
That's the first I've read of Mr. Fantasy. If Mr. Fantasy thinks the Dolphins still have a strong defense, I wouldn't read him again. With Andre Goodman getting playing time in their secondary, even Batch lit them up. And playing the Bungles could make for a high-scoring game, which works well for fantasy QBs.
9.21.2006 10:59pm
AustinCityLights:
So what's the point? How about a semi-interesting post for once.
9.21.2006 11:12pm
Adam B. (mail) (www):
Re Brady, who would you start in his place? That's the only way to answer the question.
9.21.2006 11:52pm
Waldensian (mail):

What is it, soap opera for men?

Close: fantasy football is Dungeons &Dragons for middle-age guys.

It's at least as geeky as D&D, but apparently it gets an aura of respectability because it deals with sports rather than, say, goblins.
9.22.2006 12:38am
Lev:

He seems to have few playmakers to throw to, his timing and accuracy are off, his protection seems a bit questionable, and the Patriots seem to be enamored of a more ground-oriented game plan this year with their two stud running backs.


Sounds to me as if he isn't very good,or, being charitable, he is playing very poorly. Which would mean,


What is the likelihood that Brady will actually start producing like an elite fantasy quarterback and if he does, when will that finally happen?
9.22.2006 1:57am
Lev:
Dang, pressed the wrong button.


He seems to have few playmakers to throw to, his timing and accuracy are off, his protection seems a bit questionable, and the Patriots seem to be enamored of a more ground-oriented game plan this year with their two stud running backs.



Sounds to me as if he isn't very good,or, being charitable, he is playing very poorly. Which would mean,


What is the likelihood that Brady will actually start producing like an elite fantasy quarterback


He is already a fantasy quarterback...if you catch my drift.
9.22.2006 1:59am
Pete Freans (mail):
Depending on how much money you have riding on your league ("I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!"), I would begin doing your research for another QB. I think from a Fantasy Football perspective, Brady's better days are behind them.

That being said, these first two weeks have been both disappointing and surprising in every FF League. I drafted Shaun Alexander for example and he hasn't so far produced the numbers I've been looking for. I still think it's too early to press the panic button.
9.22.2006 7:55am
bartman:
The "prove me wrong" request in this case makes no sense, on several levels.

You did not state some hypothesis. You asked a bunch of questions:
"is it time to panic?"
"what is the likelihood that Brady wil start producing"
"when will he start producing?"

Questions are answered, not proven or disproven.

It seems to be that you're indirectly making a statement somewhere along the lines of "Brady is a bad pick." The only possible proof of that cannot be provided by any person (save, perhaps, Brady), but only by the passage of time.

Prognosticators may provide predictions based upon past events, trend analysis, gut feelings or the examination of chicken entrails, but those all fall fsr short of "proof." :-)
9.22.2006 7:58am
Richard Riley (mail):
Whatever it is, my office's porn/gambling site blocker won't let me see it. So yes, probably it will be the most popular thing you have written.
9.22.2006 8:39am
Pete Freans (mail):
Brady's better days are behind him rather and the Patriot's better days are behind them.
9.22.2006 8:55am
Witness (mail):
You must be a real fantasy football novice. Once you've played it a bit more, you'll realize that these so-called fantasy experts are just other players who somehow managed to stumble into getting paid for it. If you're a reasonably diligent football fan, you should be able to come up with these answers on your own.
9.22.2006 9:18am
ruddiger (mail):
>What is it, soap opera for men?

Actually, it's Fantasy Accounting. Sure, it's sports related, but it's still just crunching numbers.
9.22.2006 9:49am
anonVCfan:
From the site:

Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
I wonder whether publication on Mr. Fantasy is more or less competitive than the Harvard Law Review.
9.22.2006 9:56am
lucia (mail) (www):
I wonder whether publication on Mr. Fantasy is more or less competitive than the Harvard Law Review.

I suspect the most difficult challenge is getting published in Dear Abby. Being slated for Gerry Springer is probably also more competitive than Harvard Law Review.
9.22.2006 10:53am
JohnO (mail):
Well, how can you go wrong with the opinions of a twenty-five-year-old guy with unknown credentials who wears a baseball cap backwards.

Really, though, Brady has been a middling fantasy QB (much better in real life) other than last year. But I'm guessing the alternatives you have are probably very limited because if you took Brady you probably waited a loooong time to take another QB on the theory that you had your every week starter.
9.22.2006 11:00am
Traveler:
Todd:

I suspect you're right -- I received more feedback from a submission to Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ last year (from people I didn't even know were football fans, even) than from any past writings, radio spots, or even TV appearances...
9.22.2006 11:05am
NickM (mail) (www):
Todd, there's a simple way to fix that. Write a LTE to The Sporting News. They published one of mine several years ago (arguing that the Browns should draft Ricky Williams and sign Jeff George as a free agent rather than drafting Tim Couch).

Nick
9.22.2006 1:52pm
Realist Liberal (mail):
Brady was my starter with Aaron Brooks my backup. Of course I dumped Brooks (even though I'm a huge Raiders fan). Somehow Rex Grossman was still a free agent so he is now my starter until the Pats can figure out their WR situation. Just my two cents.
9.22.2006 4:39pm
JosephSlater (mail):
Holy coincidence, Realist Liberal: Brady is my starter and I also got Aaron Brooks as my backup. But how in the heck was Grossman still a free agent in your league?
9.22.2006 5:19pm
Zywicki (mail):
Realist Liberal--Alas, I tried to pick up Grossman this week, but despite Brady I have done pretty well the first two weeks. So a team with a worse record (and thus better waiver priority) got him.
9.23.2006 8:58pm

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