The Volokh Conspiracy

Are U.S. Mass Shootings More Common Now Than Before?

I'd heard some suggest that mass shootings are more common now (in the post-Columbine era) in the U.S. than before; does anyone have some data as to whether this is so?

I have one seemingly reliable piece of data handy — the list in Gary Kleck's Targeting Guns, p. 144, reports on all the mass shootings Kleck knew of from 1984-1993, with mass shootings "defined here, somewhat arbitrarily, as an incident in which six or more victims were shot dead with a gun, or twelve or more total were wounded" (pp. 124-25). That list reports 15 mass killings, roughly evenly distributed from 1984 to 1993. (For those who want to check for completeness, the murderers are Ferguson, Ferri, Hennard, Doody & Garcia, Abeyta, Pugh, Wesbecker, Purdy, Farley, Simmons, Schnick, Cruse, Sherrill, Huberty, and Thomas.) My sense is that the frequency has not gone up materially since then, though I should note that this is just based on my likely quite faulty memory.

On the other hand, only one of those shootings (Purdy, in Stockton) was at a school, and it did not involve a student, unlike the Columbine murders and some of those that followed. My sense is that schoolyard shootings are indeed up since Columbine, but again I don't have handy data about how much. I'd also love to hear about data from before 1984; of course, Charles Whitman's murders in 1966, were at a university, but I do not know of any pattern of school or university mass shootings after that. (I would bracket the 1970 Kent State shootings, simply because they seem so radically different in motivation from the other killings that it's hard to see what sound policy analysis one could engage in that would group these shootings together with the other shootings I mention.)

UPDATE: A Better Where To Find has a long list, not claimed to be complete, of multiple-victim shootings, though with a somewhat different selection criterion than that given above, and limited to schools.

33yearprof:
Charles Whitman's murders in 1966 at the University of Texas were stopped when STUDENTS AND OTHERS began to shoot back with guns quickly retrieved from their cars. They got his head down and distracted him from his mission. Once they began shooting back the killing ceased.

Later, three men went up the Tower - two police officers with handguns and one civilian with a rifle. The civilian blocked one entry to the walkway while the officers entered it from the other entry, confronted Whitman, and killed him.

There was no SWAT in 1966 so the response was rapid.
4.16.2007 7:24pm
cathyf:
Note that the largest mass-murder at a school was not a shooting but a timed explosion combined with a suicide bombing. (I suspect this was the US's first suicide bombing, but maybe someone will correct me.) This was the Bath School Bombing in 1927. (Ok, technically the trigger for the car packed with dynamite and shrapnel was a gun, but it would be a stretch to call that a shooting.)

And there was a policy response of removing pyrotol, one of the explosives used in the bombing, from the market afterwards. It doesn't seem to have successfully outlawed suicide bombing, however.
4.16.2007 7:37pm
John Armstrong (mail) (www):
an incident in which six or more victims were shot dead with a gun, or twelve or more total were wounded


So I can kill five people and wound 11 without it counting? Arbitrary indeed.
4.16.2007 7:53pm
Bruce Hayden (mail) (www):
I know that we aren't supposed to be getting into policy issues (yet), but couldn't the increase in school shootings be a function of schools having become gun free zones? VT is one, as well as most, if not all, K-12 schools. Indeed, I am hard pressed to find somewhere in the U.S. that is as likely to guarantee that a mass murderer is unlikely to be faced with an armed response before he (almost invariably) has killed a bunch of people. At least in courthouses, invariably the sheriff's deputies providing security remain armed.
4.16.2007 8:00pm
Eugene Volokh (www):
John Armstrong: Don't we need some line, preferably one that's very easily administrable? How would you study in any objective way mass killings, unless you have some definition that is imperfect at the borderline but that generally tracks some plausible sense of "mass"?
4.16.2007 8:02pm
Bobbie (mail):
I'd also be interested in the numbers. It seems odd for incidents that are incredibly rare to be driving policy decisions.
4.16.2007 8:03pm
Jeffrey Poulin:
I would say based on some stats that I just managed to find, that the answer is a definate yes. Although the BJS stats that I am linking to are not counting six or more victims, it counts multiple victims (2 or more).

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/multiple.htm
4.16.2007 8:06pm
mhenner (mail):
I have a general sense that school shootings seem to occur in the Spring, between April and June.

Does anyone have data that would support or refute that impression?
4.16.2007 8:21pm
blcjr (mail):
Jeffrey Poulin,

From that same link:
The proportion of homicides involving two victims has increased but the proportion involving more than two has not changed
4.16.2007 8:36pm
Enoch:
It seems odd for incidents that are incredibly rare to be driving policy decisions.

Incredibly rare, but incredibly sensational!
4.16.2007 9:45pm
Stephen Aslett (mail):
This seems to be a pretty good place to start if you really want to compile data on such things.
4.16.2007 10:30pm
Elliot123 (mail):
When the data becomes available, will we see a correlation between concealed carry laws and mass shootings?
4.16.2007 10:50pm
AC (mail) (www):
Columbine actually was at the tail end of a rash of school shootings that began with Luke Woodham in Pearl, Missippi in 1997. If memory serves, there was at least three other "serious" school shootings between Woodham/Pearl and Columbine.
4.16.2007 11:39pm
AC (mail) (www):
Columbine actually was at the tail end of a rash of school shootings that began with Luke Woodham in Pearl, Missippi in 1997. If memory serves, there was were at least three other "serious" school shootings between Woodham/Pearl and Columbine.

I ought to preview . . .
4.16.2007 11:41pm
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):


It seems odd for incidents that are incredibly rare to be driving policy decisions.

Incredibly rare, but incredibly sensational!
Some of it depends whether the news media choose to report it. The two largest mass murders of the period 1984-91 in the U.S. were almost ignored. One involved 96 people killed when a labor union activist started a fire in a casino in Puerto Rico; the other involved 87 killed when an angry young man set fire to a night club in New York City to get back at his girlfriend. See details here.
Because neither incident could be used to justify gun control, they were largely ignored.
4.17.2007 12:36am
Abandon:
My concern is that there may be a subculture trend related to massive killings. Enoch was right to mention that such events may be incredibly rare to the point they become quantitatively unsignificant, they are, however, incredibly sensational. Permanent News networks, a relatively young mediatic institution, contribute to the killers' fame. Other medias, such as internet, make it easier for a cult to emerge.

If we are to conclude no cult is to be taken seriously, we nevertheless are reminded by the obsessive coverage medias display on these horrific episodes how easy it is for one socially maladjusted person to hit loudly the collectivity they felt aside instead of simply dying an anonymous suicide. Because that's what these events are, antisocial suicides.
4.17.2007 12:38am
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):

Permanent News networks, a relatively young mediatic institution, contribute to the killers' fame. Other medias, such as internet, make it easier for a cult to emerge.
You will probably want to read my article here. The Standard Gravure mass murder of 1989 was explicitly done as a copycat crime. The killer left a copy of Time covering Patrick Purdy's mass murder earlier that year open, and underlined in red "Calendar of Senseless Shootings." After previous attempts at suicide, Wesbecher changed his plans, and went out and bought guns (for the first time, apparently) identical to Purdy's. He even swapped one brand of AK-47 for another, to be more like his hero.
4.17.2007 12:50am
Bill Poser (mail) (www):
I don't think that any conclusion can be drawn from the DOJ data at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/multiple.htm, at least not for the 5+ victim data, which comes closest to Eugene's criterion for "mass murder". I ran a Runs test on this data and it revealed no trend. That's a non-parametric test, so with a more sensitive parametric test you might find a significant trend, but then you'd want to know something about the distribution, which I don't. Anyhow, I don't think it is safe to draw conclusions from such data by eyeball - you need to use the appropriate statistical techniques.
4.17.2007 12:56am
Stacy (mail) (www):
There seems to be a meme getting started that "gun free zones" necessarily become free-fire zones for psychotic mass murderers. I'm no gun control proponent, but I find that idea bizarre. The argument might work for career criminals who are relatively sane and looking for the safest venue to ply their trade, but a mass murderer is a totally different animal. The bell tower shooter certainly didn't seek out an unarmed environment. We'll find out more about the VT shooter in coming days, but I doubt that we'll find out he searched the nation for a "gun free" campus.
4.17.2007 1:02am
Bill Poser (mail) (www):
Stacy,

I think that the argument may be not that psychotic killers seek out gun-free zones but that, if they choose randomly (with respect to gun-density) the more likely other people are to be carrying, the greater the likelihood that the killer will be prevented from killing, or at least killed before he can kill very many.
4.17.2007 1:15am
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):

I think that the argument may be not that psychotic killers seek out gun-free zones but that, if they choose randomly (with respect to gun-density) the more likely other people are to be carrying, the greater the likelihood that the killer will be prevented from killing, or at least killed before he can kill very many.
Exactly. There are probably a few "psychotic mass murders" who never made national news because they got shot by victim #2 or #3.
4.17.2007 1:41am
EIDE_Interface (mail):
Ban all guns now to make America safe! Outlaw the NRA now!
4.17.2007 2:23am
K Parker (mail):
Clayton,

Actually I had heard of the San Juan casino/hotel fire, but only because I read about it in that creature of the moderate right, The Reader's Digest. I don't suppose Pauline Kael's successor and their buddies consider them part of the major news media, do they?
4.17.2007 3:55am
Malvolio:
I think that the argument may be not that psychotic killers seek out gun-free zones
Has anyone ever attempted a mass shooting at, say, a gun show or a policemen's convention?

I don't think so. These people are crazy, but they aren't stupid. They, for whatever reason, want to kill people and are compos mentis enough to realize that if they get killed themselves too early, they won't get to kill many others.

Of course, arming everyone won't solve the problem. If guns become too risky, there are other solutions, as Andrew Kehoe, Timothy McVeigh, Julio González, and Mohammed Atta, among others, have realized.
4.17.2007 3:59am
Bill Poser (mail) (www):

Has anyone ever attempted a mass shooting at, say, a gun show or a policemen's convention?

This doesn't quite prove the point. Avoiding high concentrations of arms is not the same as seeking out gun-free zones. In any case, I think one would need data we don't have to decide what the actual factors are since the number of incidents is so small. It could easily be the case that the psychos who do this just aren't motivated to kill people at gun shows or police conventions. Few if any of the cases I know of are completely random - they're people with a grudge of some sort and kill randomly only in the sense that they shoot at anybody in the institution they are pissed off at. They don't just go out and kill the next people they encounter.
4.17.2007 6:44am
Houston Lawyer:
If those wanting to commit mass murder know that their intended victims are armed, they don't start shooting. They must resort to suicide bombings.

Suicide bombings require considerably more planning than mass shootings. In addition, high explosives are much more controlled and controllable than firearms.
4.17.2007 10:08am
Christopher Cooke (mail):
Yes, Bruce you are right, gun control leads to mass killings. As proof of the reverse situation, where an absence of gun control has produced relative calm, one need look no further than Iraq, that island of calm admist massive gun and weapons ownership.

I actually think that our society has become more violent, at least in terms of media images, and that could be having an impact on our society, with such tragedies. It does seem too early to draw any policy lessons. Perhaps we can wait until the dead are buried, and the killer's motives are analyzed?
4.17.2007 11:10am
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):

I actually think that our society has become more violent, at least in terms of media images, and that could be having an impact on our society, with such tragedies.
Yup. But no one in the news media wants to address that. They might have to ask if the entertainment industry's continual pursuit of the next shocking slasher film is encouraging at least the very sick and messed up members of our society to violent action.
4.17.2007 12:27pm
Brian K (mail):
Clayton,

HAHAHA


Some of it depends whether the news media choose to report it. The two largest mass murders of the period 1984-91 in the U.S. were almost ignored. One involved 96 people killed when a labor union activist started a fire in a casino in Puerto Rico; the other involved 87 killed when an angry young man set fire to a night club in New York City to get back at his girlfriend. See details here.
Because neither incident could be used to justify gun control, they were largely ignored.


It is more plausible to believe that the Puerto Rico incident was ignored because it did not happen in the last. Since when does the news media report every incident that happens in foreign countries? (yes i know, peurto rico is technically a commonwealth of the US but that doesn't change things.)

And you interpretation of the night club fire is directly contradicted by the massive coverage of the more recent night club fire. that one didn't involve guns either.
4.17.2007 12:46pm
Brian K (mail):
I'm sorry...the sentence should read:

It is more plausible to believe that the Puerto Rico incident was ignored because it did not happen in the united states. (change in bold)
4.17.2007 12:51pm
Medical Student (www):
Simple question, but we're looking at the periods of pre-1984, 1984-1993, and specifically, post-Columbine.

Has the # of schools and the # of students changed greatly during these periods? Perhaps the # of shootings has increased, but not relative to the # of students/schools?
4.17.2007 2:15pm
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):

It is more plausible to believe that the Puerto Rico incident was ignored because it did not happen in the last. Since when does the news media report every incident that happens in foreign countries? (yes i know, peurto rico is technically a commonwealth of the US but that doesn't change things.)
Puerto Rico, USA. It is no more a foreign country than American Samoa.


And you interpretation of the night club fire is directly contradicted by the massive coverage of the more recent night club fire. that one didn't involve guns either.
Nor was it an intentional criminal act. The recent nightclub fire was a combination of negligence and stupidity.
4.17.2007 3:41pm
Brian K (mail):

Puerto Rico, USA. It is no more a foreign country than American Samoa.


Are you seriously contending that the news media treats puerto rico the same as any other state? I lived there for a short period of time and I can guarantee that this isn't the case. When was the last time that matters of internal puerto rican politics was reported on by the news media? how about the economic conditions? major acts of violence? droughts/floods? American Somoa just further proves my point as it is extremely rarely mentioned in the news with respect to the 50 states.


Nor was it an intentional criminal act. The recent nightclub fire was a combination of negligence and stupidity.

And your point? Neither involved guns.
4.17.2007 7:46pm
Abandon:
I actually think that our society has become more violent

I wouldn't go so far. Historically, I see more reasons to believe the level of violence in US, as in most countries throughout the world, has decreased rather than increased over the past decades/centuries.

We must distinguish violence and its coverage by the medias. Violence is more noticeable because its coverage is more overwhelming today. It doesn't mean you have more chances of dying a violent death today than before. Au contraire, I trust our existence is much more peaceful than it was the case for our ancestors.
4.17.2007 8:32pm
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):
Brian K is grasping at straws:

Are you seriously contending that the news media treats puerto rico the same as any other state? I lived there for a short period of time and I can guarantee that this isn't the case. When was the last time that matters of internal puerto rican politics was reported on by the news media? how about the economic conditions? major acts of violence? droughts/floods? American Somoa just further proves my point as it is extremely rarely mentioned in the news with respect to the 50 states.
Substitute "Idaho" for "Puerto Rico." The results are the same.
4.17.2007 9:22pm
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):

I wouldn't go so far. Historically, I see more reasons to believe the level of violence in US, as in most countries throughout the world, has decreased rather than increased over the past decades/centuries.
There are problems getting comparable data in completeness to previous centuries, but Joyce Malcolm's Gun Control: The English Experience indicates that murder rates fell to about 5% of their 14th century level by the 19th century.

There are similar comparability and completeness problems with American crime rates, but from the 17th century to the present Randy Roth's work suggests an order of magnitude reduction in murder rates in New England.
4.17.2007 9:25pm
mapgirl:
Brian K,

When was the last time you went to Puerto Rico? It's a US territory, but I was hard pressed to get by in English.

I think the problem isn't the gun laws. It's the sanity of mass killers and making sure that every child does not turn into one.

Rather than focus on gun control, how about focusing on bullying, teasing and how we respect one another as human beings. Mass killers aren't created overnight. A determined killer will kill, whether it's with a gun, a bomb, poison gas, etc. Just look at suicide bombers.

Get into their heads and their psychology and get them some help. Not when it's too late, but sooner than that. Everyone knows that lonely kid in 4th grade who reads alone all the time. When was the last time you reached out to someone who was lonely?

I know the killer seems to have shunned other people and human contact, but pathological disassociative disorders really do happen over time.
4.19.2007 6:17pm