The Relationship between Guns and Burglary:

Do guns in the home deter burglary? Or cause burglary? Or both, in different ways, at different levels? If you'd like to study the topic, here's are some on-line starting points.

1. My article Lawyers, Guns, and Burglars, 43 Arizona Law Review 345 (2001), looks at previous national and international research, and argues that the high rate of defensive gun ownership in the U.S. deters home invasion burglary.

2. In the book Evaluating Gun Policy: Effects on Crime and Violence (Brookings Institution, 2003), Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig conduct a county-level study of the U.S., and find higher gun ownership rates associated with a small increase in burglary rates. The chapter (as a NBER working paper) is available here.

3. In the same book, I have a Comment which questions the Cook/Ludwig conclusion.

Although I do not agree with all the policy conclusions in the book, the book does present very interesting research, and among the most sophisticated arguments for gun control to be found anywhere.

Tom Holsinger (mail):
So far I've read only your comment (No. 3) and found it well done. Do studies of these subjects also account for different crime rates between rural and urban counties due to lesser opportunities for crime in rural counties resulting from the vast disparity in population densities between the two?

Poor thieves in rural areas need cars for access to victims far more than they do in urban areas. Etc.
4.26.2007 7:23pm
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):
Glad to see that Kopel points to the problems of determining direction of causality. I would also argue that using Guns &Ammo subscriptions as a proxy for gun ownership is very arguable. When I first became a gun owner, I subscribed to Guns &Ammo and a couple of other gun magazines, for a couple of years, in order to learn as much as possible. I don't subscribe to any gun magazines now. For me (and perhaps for a lot of others), such magazines were a learning tool for just joining the gun culture.
4.26.2007 7:32pm
Steve:
If you asked me for a common-sense reason why higher gun ownership would be correlated with higher burglary rates, my response would be that if you live in a less safe area, you're more likely to buy a gun for protection. It would never occur to me that higher rates of gun ownership make burglars more likely to break in to steal a gun; that seems like a far-fetched theory by comparison.

One thing that strikes me about your comment is that you treat legal gun ownership and illegal gun ownership as if they are entirely separate phenomena; in other words, the only potential downside of legal gun ownership is that those guns might be stolen and used in a crime, or turned against their owner. But it strikes me that there must be a correlation; if there was no such thing as legal gun ownership in the US, to take the extreme case, surely there would be far fewer illegal guns as well. Many illegal guns begin their life with a lawful purchase, or are hijacked from a lawful gun shipment; indeed, if there had been no demand for legal guns, many of the illegal guns in existence would never have been manufactured in the first place. You can't simply point to a specific lawfully-owned firearm and say "the likelihood of this specific gun being used to commit a crime is very low." The problem is more complex than that.
4.26.2007 8:16pm
dafydd (mail) (www):
I had a similar thought today: Has anyone correlated crime rate and population density? If yes, has it been normalized to minimize the economic effects?
4.26.2007 9:49pm
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):

Many illegal guns begin their life with a lawful purchase, or are hijacked from a lawful gun shipment; indeed, if there had been no demand for legal guns, many of the illegal guns in existence would never have been manufactured in the first place.
Good assumption, except that about 1/3 of handguns made in the U.S. are made for law enforcement--and I was astonished to see a study done by BATF some years ago that found that at least of guns confiscated in New York City (admittedly, an atypical situation), about 40% were stolen before they reached the first retail dealer. Some were stolen from the factory; some in transit to wholesalers; some in transit to retail stores.

Doubtless if there was no legal market for guns, there would be fewer guns available to steal. But there would instead be a market for illegal guns. Right now, anyone that illegally manufactures a gun has to be doing it for some reason other than money. If guns were illegal, and those intent on buying guns were criminals, I would not be surprised to see the price of handguns rise quite dramatically. (It's a "cost of doing business" for drug dealers and armed robbers.)

Any real machine shop can make guns very, very easily--and if you are going to break the law anyway, why not making submachine guns? The parts count is a bit less, and illegal makers won't be carrying liability insurance.
4.26.2007 10:05pm
eric (mail):
Anecdotally, even in rural areas with high crime rates, burglary seems to be very low. I would guess the high gun ownership coupled with the fact that it is hard to disappear quickly in rural areas makes that type of crime too risky.

There are types of crime that seem to be higher in rural areas, like making meth, etc.
4.26.2007 10:15pm
Brian G (mail) (www):
I hope the book is about 900 pages. This way, when someone has their house broken into and has no gun, they can use the book to defend themselves.

About 17 years ago, when I was still living with my parents, some guy was on the run from the cops and he decided to try and break into our back door. Both my father and I heard him and jumped out of bed. Needless to say, after seeing a few guns pointed at him, that guy decided that being captured by the cops wasn't such a bad thing after all. And yes, I would have shit him if he had gotten in the house before we got to him. Damn right I would have.

As a side note, my father was more pissed that my gun was much better than his than he was to find out I owned one. He went out the next day and bought a new one.
4.26.2007 10:21pm
eric (mail):

I would have shit him if he had gotten in the house before we got to him. Damn right I would have.


Best typo ever.
4.26.2007 10:38pm
Henry Schaffer (mail):
How about smuggling in guns? They are easily available outside the US, are non-perishable, and drug smugglers could easily bring in a ton of guns/ammo with every 20 ton load of drugs. I've read that guns are coming (illegally) into England from the continent - and expect that the US borders are even more porous.
4.26.2007 10:46pm
randomrandom:
i think this is worthwhile stuff. i find it interesting, though, that when the much clearer relationship between gun ownership and gun homicide is shown, there is a tendency of some pro-gun types to minimize its meaning. e.g., "guns don't kill people, people kill people"; "if handguns were illegal, criminals would still have them" (which is clever: all murderers are criminals => all gun-using murderers would have a gun).

my point is simply this: murders and burglaries are only a part of the gun control issue; when discussing their meaning, it's important to remember the broader context.
4.26.2007 10:48pm
randomrandom:
Henry Schaffer:

why would you expect that? I would expect that England has far fewer problems with smuggling from Europe than the US does with Mexico because many of our drugs and illegal aliens come from there.
4.26.2007 10:50pm
dearieme:
"higher rates of gun ownership make burglars more likely to break in to steal a gun": that would be a remarkable case of Ameican exceptionalism. In Britain - where legal guns are strictly controlled - if you want an illegal gun, you go to the right pub and buy one. Or even rent one for the weekend.
4.27.2007 12:27am
Mark Buehner (mail):
Was there a distinction made between home invasion and burglary of empty houses? As i understand it, burglary of occupied houses is actually more common than not in Britain, but very rare in the US. I would argue that question is the important one. Being at the mercy of a home invader is one of the primary reasons for a gun in the house to begin with. If it is shown that you arent any less likely to be robbed, but much less likely to be robbed while at home, that is a much stronger argument for guns.
4.27.2007 12:36am
Tom Holsinger (mail):
Henry Schaffer,

Bill Clinton and Janet Reno sold the Chinese exclusive rights to import guns illegally (exclusive = prosecution guaranteed to be impeded) into the U.S. in 1993. My by-then retired California Democratic party operative father pointed that out to me in 1995.
4.27.2007 12:44am
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):

How about smuggling in guns? They are easily available outside the US, are non-perishable, and drug smugglers could easily bring in a ton of guns/ammo with every 20 ton load of drugs. I've read that guns are coming (illegally) into England from the continent - and expect that the US borders are even more porous.
Smuggling guns into the U.S.? No problem. Smugglers will just hide the guns inside cocaine shipments. Customs will never see them.

Right now, a well-made 9mm handgun costs about $600-$700, and weighs about 2-3 pounds. That's about $200 a pound--and they are legal. If they were illegal, I would expect them to be worth about $1000 a pound. This sounds pretty profitable.
4.27.2007 12:18pm
gasman (mail):
Observational studies that seek associations are always limited in interpretation by the inability to infer causality.
Does low burglary rate imply deterrance is in effect, or is that the natural state for a given area regardless of the gun count?
In high crime areas, people might seek guns; thus crime causes gun ownership rather than gun ownership causing crime. Or even more difficult to impute, is there a viscious cycle with both forces in effect simultaneously.

Sometimes a natural experiment can take place, such as when a state initiates concealed carry. Then a control group can be used either of the same area using prior data for comparison, or a similar area, perhaps in a nearby state, with similar socioeconomic situations at the same time period. These can however be weak experiments because many of the concealed carry permits would not signify new gun ownership, but merely the same gun moving from an illegal to a legal status.
How might I use gun ownership data in making decisions about where to live? The same as knowing number of buildings with bars on the windows; if the locals think security is a big problem, then it's time to look elsewhere.
4.27.2007 3:00pm