Last week, I wrote a post posing some questions about Book 7 of Harry Potter and giving my predictions about the answers. Here's how I did.
Note: if you want to avoid SPOILERS, you should stop reading NOW.
UPDATE: Due to popular demand, I have put the spoilers below a fold. However, I think that the original prominent warning about spoilers (combined with the heading of the post, which is after all about "assessing my Harry Potter Book 7 Predictions") should have been sufficient.
UPDATE #2: Several commenters posit various reasons why some readers could not avoid the spoilers even despite the very prominent warning. None of these problems have ever happened to me, which is why they didn't occur to me when I wrote the initial post. However, some of the posited scenarios are plausible, and I will keep them in mind if spoiler issues come up in the future, and try to use folds to hide spoilers whenever possible. Sorry for any inconvenience caused by the intial post.
1. Is Snape good or evil?
My answer: good.
Assessment: Right on.
2. Is Dumbledore really dead?
My answer: Yes.
Assessment: Correct, but Dumbledore's spirit and portrait do make appearances in Book 7.
3. Which characters will live and which will die?
My answer: Characters I think will die: Voldemort, Snape, at least one Weasley (not Ron or Ginny), Hagrid, most of the Death Eaters.
Assessment: Right as to Voldemort (an easy case), Death Eaters (ditto), Snape, a Weasley other than Ron or Ginny, and predicting that none of the central Trio would die. Wrong about Hagrid. Did not anticipate deaths of Tonks and Hedwig. Some of the other minor characters who died were ones I thought might get the axe, but didn't bother to list in the post. Others (e.g. - Colin Creevey) came as surprises.
4. What are the remaining horcruxes?
My answer: I don't have any really good guesses on this one.
Assessment: I was right to think that my guesses weren't "really good." Still, not exactly an inspiring performance on that question.
5. What, if anything, is the most important theme of the series?
My answer: No one clear moral, but several different themes. One that is certainly present is a very skeptical view of government. Another is that universal values such as love, freedom, friendship, opposition to evil, etc., cut across racial, ethnic, and cultural divisions. As Dumbledore says in The Goblet of Fire (pg. 723): "differences of habit and language are nothing at all if our aims are identical and our hearts are open."
Assessment: Generally correct. Both skepticism about government and the transcendence of cultural differences through universal principles are key aspects of Book 7. Government proves utterly ineffective in combatting Voldemort; worse still, the Ministry of Magic becomes a fearsome tool for repression once Voldemort takes over. Voldemort is eventually defeated by a nongovernmental coalition made up of numerous different races, cultures, and Hogwarts Houses uniting around common principles. Of course, as I said in the earlier post, "it would be a big mistake to assume that these political and philosophical themes exhaust the series, or are even its most important aspect."
Hmmm. Generally Harry wins through perseverance, courage, help from others and, groan, his mother's love. Intelligence plays a back seat, just as it did in the original Star Trek.
You're just a mean person, aren't you?
The least you could have done was put spoilers below the fold.
I mean, I read the book already, but how many people are going to sign on to this blog, and see the spoilers right there? They won't even have the opportunity to look away.
I think he was evil, but still had the capacity for love.
Poor SOB.
I must concur. All spoilers should be "after the jump."
I had to avoid all blogs for the last few days just to avoid spoilers like this until I could procure and finish reading the book. Had I not already finished it I would be protesting rather more vociferously. I really hate spoilers as they are a bell that cannot be un-rung.
If anyone else is like me, it might be considerate to put the spoilers beneath the fold.
I've been working all weekend, so I'm only 200 pages in. Please, fix this, and I'll wait a few hours before returning.
It isn't really clear that Harry did die, only that he offered himself up for death. As for being the "Master of Death," that didn't really come in to play has he only possessed one of the 3 objects in the forest when he was struck.
The least you could have done was put spoilers below the fold.
There is a note in big letters at the start of the post saying:
"Note: if you want to avoid SPOILERS, you should stop reading NOW."
Warnings don't get much clearer than that.
Seriously, put it below the jump, or under black text. This is stupid.
Warnings don't get much clearer than that.
That's something of a cop-out, isn't it? People's eyes have a tendency to wander, even if against their will. That's why you put spoilers below the fold. Me, I've never read a single Harry Potter book and doubt I ever will, so I don't particularly care. But I think you erred here, and it can't be that hard to correct it, can it?
It doesn't take many words to give away a crucial issue. I don't see how one could POSSIBLY scroll past your post to other, earlier, posts without their eyes spotting key words like "Harry Potter" on the same line as "dies" (or whatever your spoilers are).
I don't think it's so unusual to scroll quickly without reading words (people do that all the time), or to stop reading after a warning that says "SPOILERS below" or words to that effect.
Is it so hard to apologize?
Ilya... without reading passages, yes. Without spotting 2 or 3 key words which everybody is thinking about? Not so much. But hey, you're obviously extremely confident in your own correctness on this issue, so I'm sure you must be 100% right and almost every other single commenter on this thread wrong.
I don't know about you, but I don't read one word at a time so a spoiler alert with 2 line returns doesn't help me much.
You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? Then who the hell else are you talkin' to? You talkin' to me?
Well I'm notthe only one here, so you might want to say who you are addressing and on what basis you make your statement, otherwise your post is more like litter than anything else.
It seems implausible that people who cared about this would be so careless online; especially now that the book has been out for a while.
Gil, originally Illya posted all of the spoilers on the Volokh Conspiracy Home Page, where they were difficult to miss, especially if you tried to scroll down to the next article. The carelessness was on the part of Illya, not the commenters. Their comments were meant to help alert Illya to the problem so that others might not suffer the same fate as they did. The version of this post you have come to has been edited to fix this problem.
Ahem. I got most of my predictions at least slightly right -- I was surprised by Fred, Lupin, Tonks, Snape and Colin dying, but not surprised at all that Harry was a Horcrux, that Dumbledore and Aberforth would give us lots of information, that Snape was not on Voldemort's side, and that the Trio would survive. I even got the "a teacher will die" thing right, though of course it would be a teacher who'd never even been named before. I also correctly predicted quite a lot of behavior: no "good" adult intentionally killed anyone underage (Crabbe died by his own hand, Colin was killed by Death Eaters, etc.,) a lack of total Death Eater retributive carnage (though maybe it was only the Malfoys that survived...,) etc. Lesser and cutesy characters really did survive in droves -- am I correct in my belief that even Grawp got through it all? I last spotted a shoe of his, but no body.
Stuff I didn't bother posting but turned out to be correct guesses? Mainly that I was sure that there'd be a lot of camping and we'd be almost entirely cut off from what was happening in the rest of the world. I thought the school would be closed and there would be all kinds of whining on the part of all the kids because they had nothing to do (I thought that would create an opening for a DA reunion of some sort); I was right that kids were kept out of the main action but wrong in that they were all (except for the Muggle-borns) at Hogwarts the whole year. Rowling let far more secondary characters participate in the final showdown than I'd anticipated.
I was also wrong in thinking that Rowling would tie up so many of these things she seemed to have prepped us for (the Weasley joke shop becoming a Death Eater supply facility, foreign wizarding connections becoming important, etc.,) which she didn't do. In fact, that's probably the most distressing bit for me, other than the dreadful epilogue. The key plot-turning elements, such as Kreacher's importance and Dumbledore's sister, were essentially introduced at the very last possible moment, comparing unfavorably with earlier novels where Rowling went out of her way to follow the "if a gun is used it must have been on stage and seen by the audience well in advance" rule. The Invisibility Cloak being so very unusual was another one: why on Earth does Hermione "Honestly, don't you two read?" Granger never bring up what is apparently so obvious?
And don't get me started on Snape-loved-Lily. We were dangerously close to Snape-loved-Harry near the end, which had me sputtering with indignation. Apparently all we can say in the end about him is that he had the emotional maturity of a teaspoon (making him fit right in, at the age of 40, with Ron Weasley, when the latter was 16.)
I think that this is pretty unfair. The man had abrasive personality, and was brilliant in his field and underappreciated. Into this class comes the son of a man who literally bullied and abused Snape. The bully then died a tragic hero, so that no one else realized his evil.
Then, as a bonus, the child is a super celebrity. The first thing the kid does? Gaffs off the professor, and didn’t even bother to read the book.
Then the professor is assigned the job of keeping the child safe, even though he is as much of an arrogant jerk as his father was.
Then the professor is assigned the job of infiltrating the evil organization, a job which specifically required him to hate the child.
Then the professor is assigned the job of teaching lessons to the child that require the professor to see inside his mind, and learn the child true self.
Is it surprising that over time, the professor would come to the conclusion that far from being arrogant bully like his father, the child is actually good piece, and that it generally hard time life? Would it also be possible that the strain and requirement of his double life would require the professor to hide this, and thus make the respect and admiration even stronger?
The poor man's solution to this, if there's no one to help code up folds correctly, is to blather on for about eight lines about things that aren't spoilers and/or to order your spoilers in order of least important to most.
I think there's an interesting side discussion that could be had in terms of the way people read. I tend to read more like a hard drive than a modem, 4K blocks at a time and then parse - probably why it only took me 2.5 hours to read Deathly Hallows. Thus, I had everything through the answer to #3 before I'd registered the header. I'm not sure why it's "implausible" to the professor that people read in different ways, although anecdotally, people who are spatial readers are often not good at sequential thinking, and thus make lousy lawyers. Maybe there aren't that many of us in law schools?
Although I have to admit to putting down my book to cry when Fred died.
It will be a few weeks before I read the story, and I'd rather have an idea of the general nature of what's going to happen before I do, so THANKS for the "spoilers."
It also in retrospect still makes no sense at all that Dumbledore would have been so bizarrely cryptic about the Hallows. Leaving clues pointing to them (that only got figured out by pure luck through Luna's dad's choice of attire) that ultimately were supposed to, what, show Harry that he shouldn't pursue them in the first place? Nothing would have changed in the story without them: even if Voldemort had gotten the Elder Wand without Harry knowing the backstory, he still would have lost in the end. Only the Ressurection Stone played a real role, and Harry had no need to know what it was there either.
I also still find Dumbledore a bizarre plot point. It's made into such a big deal that the characters cannot talk to him, and yet his portrait is there at the end to clear everything else up and talk things out with. Why didn't Harry, who spent so much of the book questioning Dumbledore's wisdom and motives, at least try a little harder to access this resource, perhaps via Nigelus playing go between? I would have at least liked to see some conversation between Harry and the portrait in which he demands answers and it cheerfuly reminds him that it is not in fact Dumbledore, and has only a ghost his personality complete with whatever memories Dumbledore chooses to leave behind... which in this case are few and irrelevant to the situation at hand. That would have been a crushing blow to Harry, but at least tied up that large gaping hole in the story.
Really? I always get only a line or two of Volokh articles. Sometimes not even that, just the title.
I'm reading volokh.com/rss.xml, which when I load up now shows quite a descriptions consisting entirely of "...". (Particularly Orin's, which is a shame.)
The strong disagreement - Harry may have a fraction of Voldemort's soul, but he is NOT a horcrux; see discussion on how a horcrux is the opposite of a living person after the recovery of the locket. Nagini is not a person for this purpose; no capability for positive emotion. (Rather unlike the other snake we see in the series, incidentally - the boa at the zoo.)
Weak disagreement; Harry's death. He certainly believed he was going to die, and from a certain point of view he did; but it's the flip side of the trick Joss Whedon used in Buffy to get 2 Slayers - his body almost certainly did NOT die; only one of the soul (fragments) resident. Harry didn't die (though he had what by any stretch can be called a near-death experience). I doubt his body was ever dead (foreshadowed by the Snatch Squads' comment that allowing a Death Eater to use the Kiss on him would not violate the Dark Lord's orders to take him alive - which shows a profound idiocy on their parts, since the reason Voldy wants him alive is indeed Harry's soul(s)).
The "corruption" of Dumbledore was a nice touch.
Actually, I don't think even that soul fragment died. I think that the last bit of Voldemort's soul is in permanent limbo in "King's Cross Station," unable to live or to die.
Snape doesn't just torment Harry in a mild "shoot, the kid deserves it" way. He goes out of his way to make all the kids' lives miserable, well before Harry shows up. Moreover he goes out of his way to make an enemy of Harry from the moment the kid walks into his class -- and he knew that a) Harry's birthday is one month before school started and b) that he hadn't answered his letters, and in all likelihood knew c) that his aunt had become a Magic-hating freak and d) there was a decent chance Harry didn't even hear of Hogwarts before Hagrid knocked down his door (I can't believe there was a staff member who didn't know the whole story by Sept. 1st, given Hagrid's tendency to blurt things out.) Expecting the kid to have read the textbooks well enough to know the answers to his questions was patently absurd -- the only student who volunteered to answer was Hermione, who turned 12 less than two weeks later and thus in all likelihood had a full year to sit around memorizing her textbooks. And note, he didn't want the answers from her, either -- he just wanted to humiliate the barely-11-year-old unfortunate enough to be sitting in front of him.
He also knew, seeing as how it was his own darned fault, that e) Harry spent about 14 months of his life with his supposed bully of a father (and per Snape, angel of a mother) before being raised by completely different people. It's completely insane to think he'd be a bully, no matter what you think of James (an informed observer might wonder, given he was raised by Vernon Dursley, but Harry managed to become the scrawny tolerant victim instead.) If Harry had been horrible, it wouldn't have even been James' fault -- it would have been Snape's for getting the kid's natural parents killed, and Dumbledore for deciding to stick him with his first cousins the Dursleys rather than his third cousins the Weasleys, Longbottoms, or Malfoys (who all had immediate blood ties to the boy's father, and knew all about magic, and had sons almost exactly Harry's age.)
Until the third book Harry never once gave Snape a justifiable reason to get mad at him, and considering how blatantly immature Snape was about the Sirius situation (and you'd think he'd be a tad more understanding about a 16 year old's prank nearly getting him killed, when his treachery at 21 actually did get two people killed -- not to mention a little more tolerant, two years later, of what was obviously a drunken and broken man trapped in his own worst childhood nightmare,) I'm forced to conclude that the Hogwarts Class of 1977's "Most Likely To Go Completely Flippin' Emo" winner was a complete child, emotionally. I mean, the man threw a hissy fit when he learned he wouldn't be getting the Order of Merlin and seeing his teenage rival get his soul sucked out. Even Draco Malfoy at 15 had a better grip on things.
And don't think I don't blame Dumbledore for letting it all stand. I'd hoped that there'd turn out to be a brilliant reason for Snape being such a bastard to Harry, and there wasn't. He was coddling Snape at least as badly as he admits to coddling Harry and Trelawney, and worse than Snape's obvious pandering to the Slytherins in the years immediately surrounding Draco Malfoy's. I'd even be willing to bet Dumbledore was fixing things to keep Slytherin, and Snape, winning that blasted House Cup for seven years running.
(Ilya: though I am a complete spoiler-avoider and thus didn't check my email till just now, I should point out that anyone getting the email notices and using Auto-Preview would see your first two spoilers on the first screen, using Outlook's standard font and window sizes.)
Not physically possible when the post was the current post on the main page--which is when many of us first encountered it. Also doesn't work when you use the "Page Down" button and reveal the whole section at once rather than scrolling ineficiently down with the arrows key or the scroll bar.
IIRC, the Stop Reading now sections on tests usually have the next section on another page. If not, then they are of flawed design virtually guaranteed to induce cheating.
It might have been the combination of bolded text (Was Snape evil?) and the terse response that registered peripherally. It's okay, as spoilers go, because knowing that Snape was good didn't ruin the enjoyment of discovering the past via Snape's memories.
Huh? Dumbledore's battle with the German wizard Grindelwald was a key point of the book, and we learned that Voldemort spent most of his years of occultation in Albania. There were also a few minor plot points about Krum.
I did not like the Epilogue. There was little to suggest that the characters had changed in any way over the past 19 years, although it did leave the door open to future sequels.
(I don't recall the royalty being mentioned in any of the books. Do the wizards notice such things? Anyway, they might have been distracted by the Ministry of Magic's falling at just about the same time. Wasn't that just before school started back up?)