Public Opinion on the Seattle Schools Cases:
Quinnipiac released poll results today from a poll of 1,545 American voters (including 611 Republicans and 717 Democrats) that included a question on the recent Supreme Court decision about use of race to assign students in public schools. Here is the question asked:
"As you may know, the Supreme Court recently ruled that public schools may not consider an individual's race when deciding which students are assigned to specific schools. Do you agree or disagree with this ruling?"
The results:
By a 71 - 24 percent margin, American voters agree with a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that public schools may not consider an individual's race when deciding which students are assigned to specific schools . . . . Republican voters agree with the decision 79 - 17 percent, while Democrats agree 64 - 30 percent and independent voters agree 71 - 24 percent[.]
  Of course, poll results are no indication of whether the decision was right or wrong as a matter of constitutional law. But in light of recent claims that the Supreme Court is "dangerously out of balance," way off to the right of American public opinion, it's interesting to get a sense of where public opinion may in fact be on this question. Thanks to Lee Otis for the link.
Justin (mail):
Nevermind the fact that this is not the only issue that the Supreme Court has decided recently, and certainly not the one that was bound to be most unpopular (as Ward Connelly has proven, affirmative action support, like pro-life support, comes from an outnumbered but passionate minority - which is why anti-AA actions do best at the referendum level) - there are so many problems with the poll that I don't even know where to begin.
8.16.2007 7:14pm
Sasha Volokh (mail) (www):
Wonder how the numbers would have come out if the question were: "As you may know, the Supreme Court recently ruled that public schools may not adopt race-conscious plans designed to achieve racial balance in schools. Do you agree or disagree with this ruling?" or something similar.
8.16.2007 7:16pm
Russ:
I agree with Sasha -- this wording is particularly conducive to the results obtained. In fact, I think an even more specific description of the plans that were struck down would lead to an even higher level of support than would Sasha's construction. As worded, the poll suggests that someone was looking at every applicant's race and making an individualized determination on that basis (in concert with other factors or otherwise). That's not what these plans were about.
8.16.2007 7:20pm
OrinKerr:
Sasha,

True. But then they should have to try to describe the position of Justice Kennedy's concurrence, too, which is no easy feat for a poll question.
8.16.2007 7:20pm
dc user (mail):
I have to agree with Sasha that the question wording makes this almost useless as a barometer of whether people approve of the result the Court actually reached in the case. (For instance, I believe that polls pretty consistently have majorities disapproving of "looking at a job/school applicant's race", but approving of "affirmative action.")

However, it probably is a good barometer of how this issue will play politically. Political campaign talking points will likely boil down to the "look to race or not" question.
8.16.2007 7:24pm
Benjamin Davis (mail):
The question is revealing because it is inaccurate in articulating what Kennedy said - he did not go along with Roberts vision of no compelling interest nor Thomas' wonderful paean to the days of segregation.

One could ask the question as two local communities voluntarily worked to integrate their schools to encourage racial balance but the Supreme Court rejected those efforts considering that the way race was used was inappropriate. Do you agree with the Supreme Court decision?

I am curious to see how the results breakdown by race.

Best,
Ben
8.16.2007 7:30pm
KeithK (mail):
The poll question asks about the fundamental principle at stake in these affirmative action cases - should race be considered when choosing between individuals. When the issue is framed in terms of this fundamental issue the anti-affirmative action side wins. When AA supporters are able to frame the issue in terms of fuzzy, feel good terms like "race-conscious" and "integration" they end up with more support. No surprise there.
8.16.2007 7:43pm
Nessuno:
I agree that the wording of the poll no doubt skewed the results, but the wording of polls ALWAYS skews the results. And I think Sasha's wording is even more troublesome on the grounds that "race-conscious plans" is entirely too vague and not to the point.

The court did not, in fact, overturn the use of "race-conscious plans" in that a plan to promote racial integration that looks at and measures race (thus, it is race-conscious in two separate ways) would still be legal. The issue as I understand it is more to do with implementing a plan that unequally treats races, especially given the possibility (or lack of pursuit) of race-neutral means to achieve the goal of (race-conscious) integration.

The original poll question, while flawed, at least accurately got to the heart of the Supreme Court majority's philosophy of the 14th amendment as it pertains to the case--namely, race neutrality.

The question could have been easily improved, however, had the end been changed to "when deciding which students are assigned to specific schools [while implementing racial integration programs.]"
8.16.2007 7:54pm
Andy Freeman (mail):
> two local communities voluntarily worked to integrate their schools to encourage racial balance

Did the kids and/or their parents volunteer? If not, why should agreements by others be binding on them?

Race was used as a factor to decide whether specific children got to go to specific schools. (Yes, that's true even if race was just used as one factor in establishing quotas and then the kids were ranked according to some other criteria and the top n let in. If N was partly determined by race, the kids who didn't make the cut were excluded because of race.) If that's a good thing in this case, make the argument.
8.16.2007 8:00pm
Tim Dowling (mail):
Different wording, different results:

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 18-21, 2007. N=1,125 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS.

"As you may know, the Supreme Court recently restricted how local school boards can use race to assign children to schools. Some argue this is a significant setback for efforts to diversify public schools, others say race should not be used in school assignments. On balance, do you approve or disapprove of this decision?"

Approve Disapprove Unsure
40 56 4

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. July 2-3, 2007. N=1,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4 (for all adults).

"Do you approve or disapprove of last week’s Supreme Court decision to limit the use of race for school integration plans?"

Approve Disapprove Unsure

ALL adults 32 36 32
Whites 35 29 36
Non-whites 23 54 23
8.16.2007 8:02pm
Some Mathematician (mail):
>I have to agree with Sasha that the question wording makes
>this almost useless as a barometer of whether people approve
> of the result the Court actually reached in the case. (For
>instance, I believe that polls pretty consistently have
>majorities disapproving of "looking at a job/school
>applicant's race", but approving of "affirmative
>action.")

This might be because many people don't know what "affirmative action" is. I've had a number of conversations with particularly liberal people. The conversation goes something like this:

Me: I'm against affirmative action.

Them: But how do you protect minorities from discrimination?

Me: Hide race whenever possible. Don't ask about race on college applications. Just treat everyone the same.

Them: Isn't that what affirmative action is?

Me: [explains affirmative action]

Them: WTF?
8.16.2007 8:06pm
KeithK (mail):

This might be because many people don't know what "affirmative action" is.
...
Me: [explains affirmative action]
Them: WTF?


SM, to quote the Refreshments: "Everybody knows That the world is full of stupid people". Or ignorant people anyway.
8.16.2007 8:24pm
NYU 3L:
Agree exactly with what Some Mathematician said above--this is why public polling on Supreme Court legal issues is a complete waste of time.

Most of my liberal friends heard, when PICS came down, "The conservative majority on the Supreme Court has rolled back precedent allowing schools to use affirmative action." They accordingly thought the decision was horrible. After I explained the details of the case (the system was never de jure segregated; the system only compared white/non-white or black/non-white numbers, depending on the school, in one case such that white students would have received preference over latino students in a school that had no significant amount of latino students; all the schools had substantial white and black populations; race wasn't used as part of a holistic measure, etc.), they were much less supportive. And these are educated Ivy League graduates--what's an average American going to know about the decision?
8.16.2007 8:30pm
The Ace (mail) (www):
affirmative action support, like pro-life support, comes from an outnumbered but passionate minority

Really? I think you're lying or don't know what you're talking about.

Let me help you.


Americans have shown overwhelming opposition to partial-birth abortion, indicating the court's ruling on this matter was in line with public opinion. In the latest poll, 72% say such abortions should be illegal, while only 22% say they should be legal


More,

Gallup has always found a majority opposed to the general idea of "overturning" Roe v. Wade. In the current poll, just 35% say they would like to see Roe v. Wade overturned, while 53% say they would not. While still clearly the minority opinion, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of Americans who say they would like to see the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade.


More,

"Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?"
Sometimes Legal % 55


The poll which proves you wrong:


With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be pro-choice or pro-life?
May 4-6 2007
Pro-choice
45%
Pro-life
50%


As always, thanks for participating.
8.16.2007 9:22pm
Wintermute (mail) (www):
Screw affirmative action racism.
8.16.2007 9:37pm
Brian G (mail) (www):
I took a class as an undergrad at Arizona State that was all about the Supreme Court. I'll never forget what Professor Stookey said: "The Supreme Court follows the election returns." I always took that to also mean that they also take a good look at public opinion in making their decisions. This seems to fit right in with that.
8.16.2007 10:09pm
Brian K (mail):
Did the kids and/or their parents volunteer? If not, why should agreements by others be binding on them?

Do we only have to follow the laws that we agree with? or that we voted affirmatively for? Of course not.

The community has a whole agreed with the programs through their choices of school board members. However some people still didn't agree with it...that's how democracy works. (It also happens to be the rhetoric that has come from conservatives in the past 6 years...majority rules and all that.)
8.16.2007 10:40pm
Andy Freeman (mail):
> Do we only have to follow the laws that we agree with? or that we voted affirmatively for? Of course not.

The "two communities agreed" argument wasn't that govt imposed it, but that those specific groups deserved some deference beyond what govts get. One basis for said deference is voluntary agreement, something that is absent from this case.

If you want to discriminate by race, how about we let you do so with your money? (You'll have no objection to others doing the same with their money.) When it comes to public money, let's not reserve water fountains by skin color.
8.17.2007 12:22am
David M. Nieporent (www):
The community has a whole agreed with the programs through their choices of school board members. However some people still didn't agree with it...that's how democracy works. (It also happens to be the rhetoric that has come from conservatives in the past 6 years...majority rules and all that.)
Yes, I believe that I heard this "state's rights" argument from people like Strom Thurmond and George Wallace at one time.
8.17.2007 2:18am
eddy:
Would the poll results differ greatly if the question was:


Do you agree with the Supreme Court decision against forced cross-town bussing of a black child to achieve racial balancing?

or

Do you agree with the Supreme Court decision against forced cross-town bussing of a white child to achieve racial balancing?
8.17.2007 4:51am
Justin (mail):
There are a few strong, and a lot of at least understandable arguments against affirmative action. However, to call it "racism" is absolutely nuts, given that it has been installed in a multitiude of places where white people make up a political majority and indeed hold a large majority of the relevant public offices. What, are white politicians self-hating now?
8.17.2007 9:38am
b:
Justin, it's called white guilt.
8.17.2007 12:48pm
Nick Kasoff - The Thug Report (mail) (www):
We've been busing kids long distances for decades, motivated by the mistaken notions that racial integration would equalize educational outcomes, and that shipping children around is better than shifting money to inner-city schools. Even black leaders have, for the most part, turned against busing. It's about time the courts caught up with that.

Nick Kasoff
The Thug Report
8.17.2007 7:08pm