The Volokh Conspiracy

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.

I ran a few examples. All else being equal, he affirms lower court rulings which are LIBERAL in ideological direction.

He is (was?) a Liberal. Politics, small "p," is always present in humans (even life-term federal judges). After all, (1) they are selected because of their life-long record and (2) they want their "set" to continue to think well of them. Sticking your head in the ground (as the organized Bar wants to do with it's Missouri Plan, unopposed retention elections, and other subterfuges) doesn't take the politics out of judging.

Let me pick the members of 3-judge panels in a series of cases and I'll bet I can predict the results in over 90%. Probably, I (or any selector with knowledge of their records) can do 95%.

As always, the only cure for politics is publicity but the entire legal profession has chosen to support the ILLUSION of non-political judicial decision making. Forgetting the childhood lesson that scorched milk does not make good pudding no matter how much chocolate you put in it.

33, your bottom line has some truth, but it's exaggerated. If you look at the overall stats, Kennedy is more often conservative than liberal. If you look at the stats, you could not predict 3-judge panels with 90% confidence -- there are too many relatively moderate judges. There are some judges, at both ends of the spectrum, that you could predict with that accuracy, but not the majority.

frankcross
You misunderstand my point. Out of a large group of judges, e.g., the Ninth Circuit, if I can PICK who goes on each panel, I can avoid the wishy-washy judges and choose only those with the desired record. That way I can stack each panel, reduce potential deviations, and virtually eliminate chance. I only need 2 out of 3 who decide true to their record. Three Kozinski-type judges yield a predictably different result than three Reinhardt-type judges.

I think it's worth noting that the "predictions" are based on past performance in the extremely narrow subset of cases that the Supreme Court hears -- usually cases that the lower courts have split on. These will tend to be the hardest cases with the least clear preexisting guidance, just the kinds of cases where a judge's worldview would be mostly likely to enter into his or her decisionmaking.