The Volokh Conspiracy

The White House and Conservative Concern About the Mukasey Nomination:
You probably don't read the VC for amateurish and uninformed speculation, but in case you do I have just that about the nomination of Michael Mukasey. Specifically, I wonder if the White House has intentionally tried to create the impression of some conservative opposition to the Michael Mukasey nomination to help speed him through and help change the conversation about the Bush Administration.

  Here's the idea. Say you're in charge of political strategy at the White House, and you realize that Mukasey is a truly outstanding nominee who is also highly confirmable. You know he'll make it through, and the only question is how easily and at what cost. For tactical reasons, you "leak" to the press that you are very worried about conservative opposition to the Mukasey pick. You then make sure the press can find someone on the right — anyone — who would be willing to say something negative about Mukasey.

  At that point you can sit back and watch the show. Based on this inside "scoop" about potential conservative unrest, the MSM would dutifully go off and write their articles about how there is conservative opposition to Mukasey (citing White House worries and the one guy they could find to actually express concern, in this case some guy named "Brian Burch" from a group I have never heard of named "Fidelis"). The stories don't need any content; they really just need a good headline, like "How Bush's AG Pick Irritates the Right."

  Predictably, a few conservatives would see the articles and echo the concerns in the blogosphere. After all, if the press is saying that the Right is worried and you very much identify as being on the Right, then presumably you should be concerned as well. Equally predictably, some liberal critics eager to paint conservatives as nuts would write columns imagining (and criticizing) broad conservative opposition. Voila — with just a simple "leak," you have ensured that media discussion of the nominee will frequently mention conservative concerns.

  Why go through the trouble? Two reasons. First, in Washington the friend of your enemy is your enemy. You can't have a 100% consensus nominee because as soon as partisans on one side embrace a nominee the other side will grow suspicious. In a world with a Democratic Senate and a lame duck Republican President, it's much better to have a fellow Republicans suspicious of a nominee than the Democrats.

  Second, this story changes the conversation. More press attention on largely imaginary opposition within the GOP means less press attention on the Democrats' agenda. It takes the story away from Democratic demands on the Bush Administration for documents and puts it on the internal dynamics of conservative interests groups in Washington. All things being equal, that's a conversation that the White House would much rather have.

  Anyway, this is just my amateurish speculation. I really have no idea if this was a deliberate move. But the skeptic in me wouldn't rule it out, and it would be a pretty good pump fake if it's actually what's happening.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Dahlia Lithwick on Conservative Opposition to Mukasey:
  2. The White House and Conservative Concern About the Mukasey Nomination:
Justin (mail):
I agree generally about said political strategy. I am not sure whether it applies here - if so, I think opposition from the right would be stronger - but if it were, this wouldn't be the first time the GOP base was used as a tool by the GOP elite in order to play the media and the liberal elite as fools in (very effective) political hardball.
9.18.2007 4:51pm
JosephSlater (mail):
This was kind of complicated, but I did come away from the VC today with the distinct feeling that I owed Orin Kerr a beer.
9.18.2007 4:58pm
bittern (mail):

Voila

OK, by Occam's razor, them conservative bloggers ARE nuts.
9.18.2007 5:00pm
DavidAWW (mail):
http://www.fidelis.org/

And Mr. Kerr, you still owe us a beer. Or beers.
9.18.2007 5:00pm
Richard Riley (mail):
Hmm. I'm dubious, and the Corner blog at National Review - which you link to - is my main evidence. That crowd of conservatives is hardly shills for the Bush administration (certainly they opposed Harriet Miers early, often and vigorously), and the Corner bloggers and NR writers that have questions about Mukasey expressed them even before the nomination was formally announced - not really enough time for the Bushies to have ginned up the head fake you're positing. Also, Orin, I think you're selling the NR people a little short - they're plenty knowledgeable and sophisticated and when they oppose somebody, they generally have substantive reasons for it.

So on balance, an intriguing idea but wrong I'd say.
9.18.2007 5:03pm
HBD:
Ahh yes... the vaunted political genius of the Bush white house operations. This is the same group that isn't sufficiently politically savvy to bring W up to 35% approval.

Of course, they did manage to plot and carry out the 9/11 attacks and make most people believe it wasn't an inside job - so you gotta give them credit there.
9.18.2007 5:06pm
Houston Lawyer:
When the conservatives are really pissed, the sentiment spreads quickly. Witness Harriet Myers or the failed immigration bill.

Some conservative somewhere is always unhappy about some one. With the AG, as they pointed out on The Corner, it's not a lifetime appointment.
9.18.2007 5:12pm
Justin (mail):
Re: The Corner - what makes you think that the National Review (which, btw, is made up of a bunch of individuals) needs to tow the line incessantly in order to have ties to the Administration sufficient for such a favor to be pulled? And it's not even clear to me how the Miers nomination played out - it felt like at least a few insiders in the administration were sabatoging the nomination from day 1.
9.18.2007 5:21pm
rarango (mail):
Whatever happened to the good old days when you just appointed your brother to be AG?
9.18.2007 5:29pm
Independent George (mail):
In related news, never bet against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
9.18.2007 5:31pm
Berck:
This would make sense, ut the past has shown that they're simply not that smart.
9.18.2007 8:44pm
Sean O'Hara (mail) (www):
So did Karl Rove devise this strategy before leaving the White House, or is he still consulting on the QT.
9.18.2007 9:46pm
BGates (www):
After all, if the press is saying that the Right is worried and you very much identify as being on the Right, then presumably you should be concerned as well.

Because if the Right has unquestioning trust in anything, it's the press.
9.18.2007 9:56pm
fishbane (mail):
I had the feeling that was the strategery with Meyers, actually.
9.18.2007 10:21pm
Anonymous Hoosier:
Orin: I like it. Next, maybe you can address from where this preposterous -- but oft-cited -- meme that morale at DOJ is destroyed/plummeted/low, etc. Another clever strategy by the White House to discourage the usual crop of liberal law students from applying to the Honors program?
9.19.2007 12:30am