The Volokh Conspiracy

Unanimity and the Roberts Court:
Here's an interesting discussion on that topic with Jeff Rosen, Kathleen Sullivan, Doug Kmiec, Ken Starr, and Vikram Amar. (via Howard) A few thoughts in response:

  First, I don't agree that we have an unusually divided court. I think the current Supreme Court is less divided than the Court has been at most times in its history. What's unusual about the current Court, from a historical perspective, is that it pretty much only takes cases when there is a clear circuit split. That means the Justices tend to take technical cases that are very hard, rather than grand questions of the direction of constitutional law. It's a pretty different docket today than you had 30 or 50 years ago. This magnifies divisions, as two people who basically agree on a topic can always disagree on particulars.

  Second, I think Roberts' interest in unanimity mostly reflected his interest in keeping the role of the Supreme Court fairly narrow. Roberts doesn't want the Supreme Court to make enormous bold leaps, and unanimous decisions are usually decisions that don't rock the boat. As you get to a more divided Court, the chances of bold leaps tends to increase. So Roberts may have been thinking that he could limit the power of the Court by pushing the Justices to adopt narrower, unanimous ways of deciding cases.

  Finally, I think the recent frustration apparent among the four liberal Justices is partly the result of Roberts being much more party-line than many expected. Roberts cultivated an image as the principled minimalist, but last Term he consistently voted in a conservative direction. If a coin flip always comes up heads, after a while you're gonna wonder about the coin. I would guess the liberal Justices began to think they'd been "had," and their frustration at least partially reflects that.
Anderson (mail):
I would guess the liberal Justices began to think they'd been "had,"

Of course, they weren't really the ones who were "had" - they didn't get to pick Roberts. The stupid Dems (and stupid Specter) were the ones who were "had," not that they tried hard to avoid that.

Very happy to see Prof. Kerr acknowledging that (for better or worse) Roberts has indeed been "much more party-line."
11.28.2007 3:20pm
questioner (mail):
As someone who is quite happy with Roberts, I have to ask, who did the Democrats think they were getting? What in Roberts' background gave them the impression he would be a moderate? I think he did far less obfuscating than Souter did (but how nice to give them a taste of their own medicine, if indeed they were "had").
11.28.2007 3:31pm
Mark Field (mail):

I don't agree that we have an unusually divided court. I think the current Supreme Court is less divided than the Court has been at most times in its history.


Aren't there data which would permit a factual statement about this? Maybe I'm being simplistic, but can't we just count the various votes and announce what percentage were 5-4, what 6-3, etc.?
11.28.2007 3:36pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
Agreed... with all the "No More Souters" flying around, people expected another Souter?

Question: What is it about cultivating an image of a "principled minimalist" that precludes a conservative voting record? Seems to go hand-in-hand to me.
11.28.2007 3:38pm
M (mail):
Also, those who pointed out that Roberts' record pretty much consistantly showed him to be a very conservative lawyer and then a very conservative judge who could be expected to consistantly vote for conservative rulings were told that they were partisan and shrill. He was quite obviously chosen for these reasons (as was Alito) so it should be no surprise that he has lived up to them.
11.28.2007 3:38pm
OrinKerr:
Questioner,

The question is not whether Roberts would be a moderate. No one expected that. The question is whether he would be neutral in following the law rather than making the law to his personal preferences. That's quite different, I think.

Why did people have reason to think he would be neutral in following the law? Let's go to the transcript:
udges and justices are servants of the law, not the other way around. Judges are like umpires. Umpires don't make the rules; they apply them.

The role of an umpire and a judge is critical. They make sure everybody plays by the rules.

But it is a limited role. Nobody ever went to a ball game to see the umpire.

Judges have to have the humility to recognize that they operate within a system of precedent, shaped by other judges equally striving to live up to the judicial oath.
11.28.2007 3:40pm
questioner (mail):
Orin, maybe I haven't been following the court as closely as you have. But I don't see Roberts going out of his way to "mak[e] the law according to his personal preferences." A neutral 'umpire' still needs to make decisions.
Am I wrong in this? Has Roberts been overruling precedents at an alarming rate?
11.28.2007 3:53pm
Swede:
So when he votes in a "conservative direction" he's not being neutral? Maybe the frustration of those liberal Justices is that they aren't neutral and they are used to making the law to their personal preferences?
11.28.2007 3:55pm
GV_:
Roberts baseball analogy should have disqualified him from serving on the Supreme Court. Either he believed it -- in which case he is shallow, delusional, or both -- or he didn’t believe it, but wanted to try to misled the committee – in which case he thought it was fine to perjure himself to become a Supreme Court justice.

Roberts was a conservative lawyer with a conservative pedigree. He’s a conservative Supreme Court justice. Was there any doubt?
11.28.2007 3:59pm
Duffy Pratt (mail):
Unanimous opinions tend to be sloppy, if for no other reason, than because there is no dissent lurking to point out the flaws in the reasoning. As a by-product, they also tend to have terrible dicta in them which later presumptively become broad statements of law, precisely because they were in unanimous opinions. We would be better off with a system of every judge writing a serial opinion than with the Court tossing off unanimous ones.

And Rosen is wrong. If you are a professional cyclist, you should choose Eddy Mercxx as your model, not Lance Armstrong. I think even Armstrong (who does not suffer from false modesty) would agree with this.
11.28.2007 4:00pm
OrinKerr:
Questioner,

You comment seems to assume that a judge makes the law according to his preferences only when he explicitly overrules precedents. That is not the case.
11.28.2007 4:00pm
Hunter McDaniel (mail):
Seems to me that the Court is almost always divided, as a natural consequence of being the "Supreme" Court. Slam dunk isues are slam satisfactorily resolved (from the Supremes' viewpoint) by the lower courts and never receive cert.

So while the Court itself may over time move left or right, split decisions are no measure of that.
11.28.2007 4:09pm
UW2L:
A candidate acting more middle-of-the-road than he truly is in order to get votes? Unheard-of! Reminds me of the old joke:

Q. What's the difference between a politician and a judge?
A. A $25 robe.

(Reaction of at least one judge upon hearing this joke: "Hey! That robe cost a lot more than $25!")

And, Orin, if a coin keeps coming up heads, don't worry: eventually, when the bet is double-or-nothing, it'll come up tails.
11.28.2007 4:11pm
bittern (mail):

a taste of their own medicine

"The Democrats" pushed Souter on you, Questioner?
11.28.2007 4:23pm
Dave N (mail):
Orin,

Could you point to cases where you think the Chief Justice has made "the law to his personal preferences" as opposed to being neutral in following the law? I am not asking to be tiresome, but rather to clarify where you think Roberts has fallen short and "followed the party line" (if you indeed think he has).
11.28.2007 4:46pm
David M. Nieporent (www):
Aren't there data which would permit a factual statement about this? Maybe I'm being simplistic, but can't we just count the various votes and announce what percentage were 5-4, what 6-3, etc.?
Yeah, I think that's overly simplistic.

For one thing, a 5-4 vote in an ERISA case is not quite the same thing as a 5-4 vote in, say, an affirmative action or abortion case.

For another, a series of 5-4 votes, with the same judges in the majority/minority in each case, is pretty different than a series of 5-4 votes with a different mixture of judges on each side in each case.
11.28.2007 4:48pm
Thoughtful (mail):
Orin,

As a non-lawyer, but as someone who tries to keep up, I'm not sure I follow your distinctions between umpire (minimalist) [vs activist?] OTOH and liberal/conservative on the other.

Let's take a VC blogger I'm familiar with. While he may demure from these appellations (take them as a hypothetical), I think of him as a anarchist favoring a polycentric constitutional order. Ideologically a libertarian, imagine him as a Justice on the Supreme Court.

Now one might imagine he would overthrow Lochner. Precedents can be overturned under certain circumstances, and I believe he has even argued in print that overturning precedent is not as problematic as often thought. So one might forgive a liberal for thinking his decisions are ideologically biased.

Similarly, a libertarian anarchist might overturn the PATRIOT Act (here we move into the realm of hypothetical, as the particular VC blogger of whom I'm thinking sadly seems to disagree with many of his long-time acquaintances on post-9/11 issues). So one might forgive a conservative for thinking his decisions are ideologically biased.

However, he might respond he has a well developed theory of Constitutional interpretation which is based on legal principles and not on ideology (though of course it might have been motivated and developed with an eye toward his ideology). As such, he sees himself and believes himself objectively to be an umpire, applying the Constitution as written, not merely his preferences. In this regard, he might point to areas where the Constitution forces him to one decision while his personal preferences would have pointed in another direction, for example allowing income taxes even if he thinks "taxation is theft".

So here we have a hypothetical, but easily imaginable, justice who is applying the Constitution based on objective and transparent interpretative principles. One might even test the objectivity of these principles by "guessing" how he would rule in each case in advance (just as you can tell a mathematician is being objective when he keeps getting "4" on adding "2+2", granted, there is much more nuance in legal decision-making). Sometimes he rules as a liberal would prefer; sometimes as a conservative would prefer. But in neither instance is it right to say his decisions are politically motivated. Neither is it correct to say he simply sees the Constitution as a libertarian document and therefore simply rules consistently libertarian, since libertarianism per se can lead to different, more radical, conclusions that objective application of Constitutional principles. Would you say that such a hypothetical jurist is being a minimalist, an umpire, simply applying the Constitution to the law without applying his personal polical preferences? If not, why not?

It seems a mistake to assume that political principles are random, not linked to one another, such that if one is principled one will alternate between "liberal" and "conservative" decisions.
11.28.2007 4:54pm
Alec:
Dave,

To me it becomes apparent in the "standing" cases, which are invariably result-oriented and mushy. It is amazing lower courts can make heads or tails of the Court's jurisdprudence in this area. But I think the faith-based intitiative standing result, versus affirmative action in schools, is a pretty good indication that one is not being very intellectually honest or consistent while reaching results that are desired from a conservative policy standpoint. Not to say that liberal justices do not fall into this result-oriented trap either (in the area of standing, Justice Stevens is not what I call consistent), but they spend less (no?) time blasting judicial activism from the bench or musing on the judge's role as a neutral umpire who simply "applies" the law without, apparently, any need to interpret it.
11.28.2007 4:58pm
bittern (mail):
Also trying to keep up. Orin, thanks for the link to the discussion. That was interesting. I don't know who is who but one of the panelists made the point that the Supremes could have but did not choose narrow ways of deciding cases; Seattle was one of the examples given. That point's contrary to your suggestion that Roberts may have been thinking that he could limit the power of the Court by pushing the Justices to adopt narrower, unanimous ways of deciding cases. What would "limiting the power of the Court" mean? Are you suggesting that Roberts really wants the law to sit right where it is, with all its quirks? Sen. Feinstein's incantation of the words "stare decisis" not withstanding, that seems incorrect.
11.28.2007 5:45pm
bittern (mail):
Daniel Chapman's Question: What is it about cultivating an image of a "principled minimalist" that precludes a conservative voting record? Seems to go hand-in-hand to me.

I'm not a scholar of such things, but word on the street has been that Roberts has voted for the powerful and against the powerless in every instance where such a distinction can be made. Now, I realize that there are indeed a few plausible explanations for having that an impression. But one highly plausible explanation is that Roberts' conservatism overrides other considerations in his determining the law.

I am perhaps aberrant among the more liberally inclined in that I'd like to have liberally inclined executive and legislative branches which are restrained by a more conservative court. So I'd be fine with a real-life minimalist, and I've no particular bone to pick with Justice Thomas, the conservative anti-minimalist, either. But if the court's not giving parties a fair shot, that just won't do.
11.28.2007 6:10pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
I'm sure that's true, bittern... I honestly wouldn't have expected any other finding from the people who measure such things. It doesn't really answer my question though.
11.28.2007 6:19pm
bittern (mail):
Daniel, I'm sorry, I'm not picking up your references to "finding", "the people who measure" and "such things." Not following. bittern
11.28.2007 6:35pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
It means that if someone is going to go through the trouble of figuring out how often a particular Justice "voted for the powerful and against the powerless," I just assume I know what the results will be ahead of time...
11.28.2007 6:37pm
MarkField (mail):

For one thing, a 5-4 vote in an ERISA case is not quite the same thing as a 5-4 vote in, say, an affirmative action or abortion case.

For another, a series of 5-4 votes, with the same judges in the majority/minority in each case, is pretty different than a series of 5-4 votes with a different mixture of judges on each side in each case.


Ok, but then it seems we need to define more precisely what's meant by "unusually divided".
11.28.2007 6:45pm
bittern (mail):
Daniel, thanks. One of the people on the Pepperdine panel asserted that Roberts voted liberal on exactly one contested issue. I figure if you want to see bias beyond legit principles, you look for a goose/gander comparison. The one that makes sense to me is whether the big guy always wins over the little guy. Perhaps your complaint is that only Democrats use the terminology of "powerful over the powerless", and so that scorer is biased, I grant you that. Can we get a good scorer of how often Roberts ruled for the little guy?
11.28.2007 7:15pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
You can keep looking if you want. I don't care. Personally, I don't equate "ruled against the little guy" with "conservative."

(And If I felt like a snarky bastard, which I do, I'd point out that it's the liberals who voted against the REALLY "little guys" in Roe and Casey :)
11.28.2007 7:17pm
Duffy Pratt (mail):
Chapman:

As I recall, the "REALLY 'little guys'" were not parties in Roe or Casey. The libs could not have voted either before or against them. They were innocent bystanders.
11.28.2007 7:33pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
Damn... you got me.
11.28.2007 7:39pm
bittern (mail):
Daniel, you asked What is it about cultivating an image of a "principled minimalist" that precludes a conservative voting record? Schumer complains, if I recall correctly, that the little guy always loses out when Roberts makes his call. Conservatism is, to some extent, maintenance of power and property. Now you don't care. Quote: I don't care.

Sweet dreams, Daniel.
11.28.2007 7:52pm
DeezRightWingNutz:
Some umpires have tight strike zones and some have big strike zones. Some give pitchers the outside corner and some don't. This differences seem to me to be akin to judicial philosophies (and yes I know MLB sets the strike zone so they should all be the same).

So an umpire that consistently calls the pitch an inch off the black is still "calling him as he sees them." The umpire that gives Barry Bonds or Tony Gwynn the 0-2 pitch even though it was on the corner is biased.
11.28.2007 8:02pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
You have an odd definition of "conservatism," and poor reading comprehension skills. I guess partly in apology for my earlier snark, I'll explain it to you gently. I don't care if you go on looking for a better "scorer" of how often Roberts "ruled for the little guy."

I won't be going to sleep until at LEAST after "Dirty Sexy Money" is over. If you're tired, though, I wouldn't blame you if you stopped talking now.
11.28.2007 8:02pm
Brian K (mail):
I just assume I know what the results will be ahead of time...
why? it can easily be made into an objective measure which can be verifiable/falsifiable.

just because one political group is more likely to examine certain phenomena doesn't mean the results are biased/false. or if you maintain that it does (to use a recent example), would you also throw out all information that supports the individual rights view of the 2nd amendment because it was research by conservatives? these conservatives obviously found what they were looking for and we all knew what the result would be ahead of time.
11.28.2007 8:18pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
No, but if I see a study claiming to show how many first degree homicides are committed each year by legally owned handguns, I actually DO assume I know how it'll turn out ahead of time.

No gun control group would do a study like that.
11.28.2007 8:25pm
wm13:
The little guy? Roberts voted for individual parents against the school board. Does that count? As I hope is clear, I don't think a "little guy" or a "powerless" standard is very meaningful.
11.28.2007 9:23pm
ReaderY:
I don' understand the emphasis on Roberts. O'Conner's replacement by Alito has had a greater affect on the Court than Rhenquist's replacement by Roberts. Surely nobody expected a liberal.
11.28.2007 9:56pm
Laura S.:
Orin,

You present two bits of information:

1) Roberts consistently stands opposed to Stevens, Ginsburg, Souter, and Breyer.
2) Roberts claimed to be an umpire, not a ideologue

From which you then conclude, "#1 implies #2 is false"

What an assumption. We ought to consider that BGSS are the four horsemen of the left. Thus #2 implies the BGSS are not moderates but actually ideologues. Thus, #1 is irrelevant.
11.28.2007 11:17pm
Libertarian1 (mail):
Bittern wrote: I'm not a scholar of such things, but word on the street has been that Roberts has voted for the powerful and against the powerless in every instance where such a distinction can be made. Now, I realize that there are indeed a few plausible explanations for having that an impression. But one highly plausible explanation is that Roberts' conservatism overrides other considerations in his determining the law.



Using the analogy of an umpire why can't you just say Roberts is following the exact wording of the law. If a "powerless" claimant files on day 3 years and one day when the law limits filing to 3 years it seems you are implying Roberts is heartless to deny the claim. His job is not to do justice but to obey the written law.
11.29.2007 10:32am
PLR:
Using the analogy of an umpire why can't you just say Roberts is following the exact wording of the law. If a "powerless" claimant files on day 3 years and one day when the law limits filing to 3 years it seems you are implying Roberts is heartless to deny the claim. His job is not to do justice but to obey the written law.

Begs the question. Where the written law is clear, the case likely does not ever get to a Supreme Court appellate decision in the first place.
11.29.2007 12:26pm
Birdman2 (mail):
The post does not differentiate between judicial conservatism and political conservatism. There is a big difference. When he voted that flag-burning was protected by the First Amendment, for example, Justice Scalia applied conservative (or at least neutral) judicial principles to reach an outcome that was contrary to what most people today would regard as the politically conservative result.

The same ambiguity makes Orin's subsequent post, re "Roberts Umpire-Watchng," unclear and therefore unuseful.
11.29.2007 3:48pm
OrinKerr:
Birdman2,

In this post, when I say "conservative," clearly I mean politically conservative. That is a much easier concept, as the flag-burning example shows.
11.29.2007 3:51pm
mariner (mail):
PLR:
Begs the question. Where the written law is clear, the case likely does not ever get to a Supreme Court appellate decision in the first place.


Actually I think one just did. One side bemoaned the heartless application of the law as written (and lost).
11.29.2007 5:28pm
Birdman2 (mail):
Orin, thanks for your response and clarification. But the project you suggest in at least one if not both of your posts then is made difficult by the fact that in at least many situations judicial conservatism will lead to a politically conservative result. This is so because the Warren Court used judicial activism/liberalism (call it what you will -- we know what we're taling about) to reach politically liberal results -- e.g., Roe, Miranda. So no very useful conclusions can be drawn from decisions in those cases where judicial and political conservatism point in the same direction.

So I guess what I'd focus on would be what I'd expect is the small set of cases in which -- as in the flag-burning case -- conservative or neutral principles of adjudication would lead to a politically liberal result. I agree that would be interesting.
11.29.2007 5:39pm
Duffy Pratt (mail):
Dont forget the cases where judicial activism leads to politically conservative results. An example is Teague v. Lane (where the Court foreclosed a broad avenue of habeas relief for petitioners, by basing its decision on an area of law that was never presented by either party, or any lower court, at any time during the case.)
11.29.2007 7:43pm
Libertarian1 (mail):
PLR wrote: Begs the question. Where the written law is clear, the case likely does not ever get to a Supreme Court appellate decision in the first place.



I wasn't just suggesting a hypothetical. See Ledbetter vs. Goodyear
11.29.2007 11:31pm
Duffy Pratt (mail):
Libertarian1:

As I read it, the question in Ledbetter was whether the receipt of unequal pay was based on a discreet act (the pay decision, as the majority holds), or whether it is a group of individual acts with a cumulative effect (as the minority argues). The distinction itself, between discreet acts and continuous impact violations, is judge made and not in Title VII, as far as I know. Neither opinion cites any statutory language for this distinction. There also was precedent that appeared to support, more or less, each side.

How was the majority acting as a simple "umpire"? This, as with other technical discrimination issues, looks to me like an example where the prior law is not entirely clear, and each political side saw the law clearly through their politically colored glasses to arrive at the interpretation that served their bias.

If you had explained this case to me beforehand, I could have predicted exactly how the judges would have voted on it. And it seems to me, if you think of this as an example of a judge simply following the clear dictates of the law, then you are probably just as biased as the conservatives.

By the way, on this case, I think the conservatives probably had the better argument. Brazemore, the case the petitioner tried to rely on, was a per curiam, and her reliance is on some language in Brennen's concurance to that opinion. As I've said before, unanimous opinions tend to be sloppy. A unanimous concurrence to a per curiam opinion is even more likely to be sloppy and untested.
11.30.2007 11:19am
Libertarian1 (mail):
Duffy wrote: How was the majority acting as a simple "umpire"? This, as with other technical discrimination issues, looks to me like an example where the prior law is not entirely clear, and each political side saw the law clearly through their politically colored glasses to arrive at the interpretation that served their bias.


I think a different definition of conservative, philosophical rather than political, might come unto play. Read the law as narrowly as possible, don't break new law judicially rather than legislatively. Not an umpire here but a traffic cop- go slow.
11.30.2007 2:59pm
Duffy Pratt (mail):
OK, but if someone tells you that a close question of statutory construction is coming up on the statute of limitations under title VII, don't you already have a pretty good idea of how the judges are going to come out without knowing much more? I'm pretty sure I do -- the libs will favor the broad reading that allows the suit to continue. Vice versa for the conservatives, who will naturally tend to adopt the position that forecloses recovery.
11.30.2007 3:51pm
Libertarian1 (mail):
Duffy wrote: OK, but if someone tells you that a close question of statutory construction is coming up on the statute of limitations under title VII, don't you already have a pretty good idea of how the judges are going to come out without knowing much more? I'm pretty sure I do -- the libs will favor the broad reading that allows the suit to continue. Vice versa for the conservatives, who will naturally tend to adopt the position that forecloses recovery.



Absolutely. It seems that some judges, who favor the broad reading that allows the suit to continue, feel their job, as judges, is to do justice, actively reinterpret the exact words of the law to fit into modern society and believe deep pockets will bear pain easier. The philosophically conservatively disposed judges see their job as one that strictly interprets the law exactly as written by legislators or the Constitution and damn the consequences. See Scalia and flag burning. We are nearing a discussion of "activism".
11.30.2007 10:18pm
New Pseudonym (mail):

For one thing, a 5-4 vote in an ERISA case is not quite the same thing as a 5-4 vote in, say, an affirmative action or abortion case


All depends. I'd say that a decision on an ERISA case that held that the federal government had acted contrary to the tenth amendment in interpreting the scope of its powers under ERISA woud be more significant than holding for the defendant in an affirmative action case for lack of standing.

See how easy it is to attack a post when the examples are weak even if the argument is valid? ;-).
12.2.2007 5:22pm
New Pseudonym (mail):

But I think the faith-based intitiative standing result, versus affirmative action in schools, is a pretty good indication that one is not being very intellectually honest or consistent while reaching results that are desired from a conservative policy standpoint.


In the unlikely case in which someone uses the faith-based initiative standing to challenge an affirmative action case on the basis of standing, we'll see. I may or may not agree.

My reason is that the Court, in order to remedy a very great evil (legal discrimination on the basis of race), made decisions to remedy this evil without regard for their consequences in other areas where they did not necessarily have the angels on their side. I'm not saying this was morally (or even legally) wrong, but I think there can be little doubt that it was done.
12.2.2007 5:33pm
New Pseudonym (mail):

We would be better off with a system of every judge writing a serial opinion than with the Court tossing off unanimous ones.


As in the famous case of Sandford v. Scott?
12.2.2007 5:34pm
Duffy Pratt (mail):

We would be better off with a system of every judge writing a serial opinion than with the Court tossing off unanimous ones.



As in the famous case of Sandford v. Scott?


Taney delivered an opinion for the Court. There were concurrences and dissents. So, no. A true serial opinion would be more like Chisolm v. Georgia, 2 U.S. 419. In that case, every judge delivered a separate opinion, as appellate courts in England did.
12.2.2007 7:20pm