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GOP Race Wide Open:
Two new polls suggest that the race for the GOP Presidential nomination has become wide-open in the last week or so. See stories on the latest Reuters poll here and the latest WSJ/NBC poll here.
liberty (mail) (www):
become? Its pretty clear I think, that it always has been.

Everything has been very short-term and unreliable up to this point.
12.20.2007 12:37am
justwonderingby:
perhaps this is so because the GOP has resisted giving the people a candidate they can support enthusiastically. I guess the didn't learn their lesson from the mid-term elections...
12.20.2007 12:38am
DiversityHire:
I count 4 worthy GOP candidates—more than on the Democratic side—but somehow Gubn'r Gomer is leading the field?!?! I'll vote for anyone over Huckabee. Jeebus! How did you let this happen?
12.20.2007 1:37am
Oren:
How did you let this happen?
The leftie media has been arranging this all along! Duh!
12.20.2007 1:43am
Cornellian (mail):
I read a funny story a few days ago noting that the Democrats were mysteriously silent on Huckabee. The theory is that they're holding their fire because they're hoping he'll win the nomination and their nickname for him is "glass jaw."
12.20.2007 4:01am
wooga:
Since Brownback dropped out, I would be happy with any of the Republican candidates, including Ron Paul, except for Huckabee. Interestingly, my religious beliefs are probably closest to Huckabee of any of the candidates. But, as a good federalist, I recognize that religious and social views are state issues, not federal. So Huckabee's +1 point for religion remains outweighed by his 100s of negatives.

The polls just reinforce how small a minority we federalists really are. We're almost down to libertarian numbers! (yes, I know some people are part of both)
12.20.2007 4:57am
Gaius Marius:
Huckabee must win quick, successive victories in Iowa, NH, SC, and Michigan to win the GOP nomination. If he does not, then the longer the GOP primary race drags on, the longer his record as governor of Arkansas will come under scrutiny and it is pretty ugly by conservative standards. Note that Huckabee is refusing to go on Meet the Press where one can expect Tim Russert to grill him about his record as governor of Arkansas.

I predict that the GOP primary race will turn into a marathon and war of attrition because Huckabee will stumble in NH and Michigan is always unpredictable -- especially with Democrats free to vote in the GOP primary since Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat candidate in the Michigan primary since the other Democrat candidates were stupid enough to pledge not to campaign in Michigan in order to appease Iowa voters. Therefore, if ever the stars were aligning for a dark horse candidate to emerge as the GOP nominee for president, it is this year.

Disclaimer: yours truly is a Ron Paul supporter.
12.20.2007 8:59am
justwonderingby:
Huckabee is popular for one reason: Christians are sick and tired of being targeted. I do a lot of driving in New England and I noticed something during the Bush years: There has been an explosion of evangelical radio stations (and this is New England, not Virginia) and they are popular. I don't agree with Huckabee on lots of things, but I wouldn't discount his appeal to Christians. The GOP lost in the mid-term because the evangelicals were pissed. Posts like this: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2007/12/019321.php are stupid and filled with folly and wholly miss the lesson of the last 2 years.
12.20.2007 9:14am
justwonderingby:
Oh, and make me stop reading the shucks at powerline.
12.20.2007 9:15am
rarango (mail):
I am not at all clear as to why there should even be a front runner at this point in this already interminable campaign. (for either party) It seems to me that anyone who has read the results of political primary campaigns for the last 30 years should be smart enough to not open their mouths until considerably after the opening primaries--and given the coming regional primaries, it would be advisable to wait until the end of feb before making judgments.

Of course, the political pundits need a horse race so they will fabricate one. Just my .02.
12.20.2007 9:38am
Thoughtful (mail):
The Paradox of Voting:

Try as I might, I cannot imagine, for each individual candidate taken in turn, that the American people will be foolish enough to make him/her President. And yet, in the end, one of them will win...
12.20.2007 10:01am
Thorley Winston (mail) (www):
Since Brownback dropped out, I would be happy with any of the Republican candidates, including Ron Paul, except for Huckabee.


I agree about Huckabee and Browback being two candidates I wouldn't probably vote for in the general election (nor would I vote for Paul but he's not really a serious candidate so it's irrelevant). My order of preference goes Romney, McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson and I would be glad to support any of them in the general election.
12.20.2007 12:46pm
David Drake:
rarango--

As to why the front-runner now is important, there is an Op-Ed in today's WSJ (by Karl Rove)that says 50% of the delegates will be chosen on or before February 5.

So the interminable campaign for the nomination is going to end abruptly very soon.

Time to start paying attention.
12.20.2007 1:01pm
Oren:
Christians are sick and tired of being targeted.
Being targeted for unending pandering finally wear you guys out? It's about damn time!
12.20.2007 1:12pm
hattio1:
Oren says;

Christians are sick and tired of being targeted.
Being targeted for unending pandering finally wear you guys out? It's about damn time!


I disagree with a lot of what Oren says, but this is priceless.
12.20.2007 2:03pm
rarango (mail):
David Drake: good point, and I confess to being one of the inattentive public who is still locked into a past, and more sedate primary season. Thanks for jerking me out of my lethargy.
12.20.2007 2:12pm
CEB:
I stand by my theory that the GOP has already ceded a Clinton victory and has decided to sit this one out--I believe the Democrats did the same thing in 2004.
12.20.2007 2:15pm
Christie Kaplan (mail):
Here is a prediction for ya'll, all the way from Bagdad....

Clinton will not receive the Democratic nomination, it will be Obama or Edwards.

In the end, Huckabee will not win the nomination either - it will be Guiliani or Thompson, Romney will not be able to get past the "Moron" cloud and McCain is, well McCain.....

I also believe that going into the Republican Convention, there will not be a winner, it will be backroom negotiating that will determine the eventual nominee.
12.20.2007 2:36pm
SenatorX (mail):
wooga, IMO people like you redeem Christianity. I appreciated your comments on that last thread that got shut down too.
12.20.2007 2:40pm
Rich B. (mail):
I remember very clearly not voting for Ed Rendell in the Democratic gubernatorial primaries. He was a fairly liberal, urban, a Philadelphian, etc. All the things they told us made a candidate unelectable in Pennsylvania. And heaven forbid he win the primary and the folks in the "T" find out he's Jewish too!

I agreed with him on more issues than Bob Casey, but darn it Casey was more "electable," so I voted for him.

Rendell won the primary, and then won the governor's race in 2002 by a comfortable 53% to 45% margin.

I quickly realized what a stupid label "unelectable" was. Any of the 8 Democrats or Republicans still in the race are "electable" given the right campaign and circumstances.

Which is why watching coverage of these primaries is so painful. Every voter is a pundit. "I like X most, but he's not electable because he's a black cross-dressing Mormon woman, so I'm voting for Y."

If Rendell could win the governor's race in Pennsylvania, any of these people could be President.

(Well, except for my favorite candidate, Bill Richardson, who I realized watching him last night had the same look and mannerisms as 'Nicely Nicely' from Guys and Dolls.)
12.20.2007 2:50pm
byomtov (mail):
(Well, except for my favorite candidate, Bill Richardson, who I realized watching him last night had the same look and mannerisms as 'Nicely Nicely' from Guys and Dolls.)

So far, Richardson is not having much success at rocking the boat.
12.20.2007 8:48pm
Joshua:
Christie Kaplan: I also believe that going into the Republican Convention, there will not be a winner, it will be backroom negotiating that will determine the eventual nominee.

You're not alone. A few other blogs are already discussing the possibility of a brokered convention in St. Paul this summer.
12.20.2007 9:28pm