The Volokh Conspiracy

Novak on McCain & Judicial Nominations:

Today's Robert Novak column supports John Fund's claim that Sen. McCain has made comments suggesting he would be unlikely to nominate someone like Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court. Specifically, Novak reports the following:

Fund wrote that McCain "has told conservatives he would be happy to appoint the likes of Chief Justice Roberts to the Supreme Court. But he indicated he might draw the line on a Samuel Alito because 'he wore his conservatism on his sleeve.' " In a conference call with bloggers that day, McCain said, "I don't recall a conversation where I would have said that." He was "astonished" by the Alito quote, he said, and he repeatedly says at town meetings, "We're going to have justices like Roberts and Alito."

I found what McCain could not remember: a private, informal chat with conservative Republican lawyers shortly after he announced his candidacy in April 2007. I talked to two lawyers who were present whom I have known for years and who have never misled me. One is neutral in the presidential race, and the other recently endorsed Mitt Romney. Both said they were not Fund's source, and neither knew I was talking to the other. They gave me nearly identical accounts, as follows:

"Wouldn't it be great if you get a chance to name somebody like Roberts and Alito?" one lawyer commented. McCain replied, "Well, certainly Roberts." Jaws were described as dropping. My sources cannot remember exactly what McCain said next, but their recollection is that he described Alito as too conservative.

Cold Warrior:
That proves it! He would be the death of the Republican Party! Why, with him, we'd get a Supreme Court composed of John Roberts and 8 John Roberts clones!!

Hey, wait a minute, isn't that what we wanted?
1.31.2008 5:25pm
procrastinating clerk (mail):
He may be trying to backtrack on this. Yesterday during the debate he said he would appoint judges in the mold of Roberts and Alito. Incidentally, Romney said he would appoint judges like Robert, Alito, Scalia, and Thomas.
1.31.2008 5:26pm
Anderson (mail):
Exactly, CW. McCain is saying he'd be smart enough to nominate suave, stealthy conservatives.

The rabid RedStaters think that's heresy; they don't just want to win, they want to rub the other side's nose in the poop.
1.31.2008 5:26pm
Anderson (mail):
Incidentally, Romney said he would appoint judges like Robert, Alito, Scalia, and Thomas.

What *else* was he going to say? "Souter, now THAT'S my idea of a judge"???
1.31.2008 5:27pm
procrastinating clerk (mail):
No I didn't expect him to say he would nominate Souter. But seeing as how everyone is parsing what the candidates are saying about justices, I thought people may want to know that Romney also mentioned Scalia and Thomas.
1.31.2008 5:33pm
GV:
Maybe I'm missing something. How is Alito any more or less conservative than Roberts? In the 2005-2006 term, they agreed with each other 91% of the time. I can't think of any big case where they disagreed with each other since they have been on the Court. (I suppose there are minor differences on their views with respect to Booker, but neither one of thier views can be called "more conservative" than the other.) Given that, why would any conservative care if McCain only wants to put another Roberts on the Court and not another Alito? Given that Roberts was seemingly less contentious, wouldn’t you prefer more Roberts to more Alitos?
1.31.2008 5:33pm
procrastinating clerk (mail):
But, I guess it also isn't surprising that your response was sarcastic and unhelpful.
1.31.2008 5:34pm
Cold Warrior:
McCain is not a lawyer, and he was probably trying to sound like he is smart about all these lawyerly issues when he drew a really silly distinction between Roberts and Alito. I think GV has it about right: McCain used Roberts as shorthand for "universally considered to be exceptionally well-qualified, exceedingly fair, conservative in judicial philosophy, but not a "movement conservative." I guess Alito isn't either, but Bork was, and everyone remembers where (what) that got us. David Souter.

This is one of the sillier games of gotcha currently being played among the McCain is the Death of Everything We've Ever Held Sacrosanct crowd.
1.31.2008 5:40pm
Cold Warrior:
This is one of the sillier games of gotcha currently being played among the McCain is the Death of Everything We've Ever Held Sacrosanct crowd.

And to show I'm not a rabid McCainite: just as silly as the "Romney said we should talk to al-Maliki and try to reach confidential deadlines for the turnover of security functions to the Iraqi Government" game of gotcha.
1.31.2008 5:43pm
jim47:
GV: there are differences on small but important judicial ideas that do exist within the conservative movement. And I suspect you could find people who were equally conservative to give differing views on those issues. So more or less isn't the issue, meaning there is some logic in imagining a conservative who would take issue with nominating more Roberts-like judges, but not more Alito-like judges.

Though honestly, I am not a close enough court watcher to give you a good sense of what methodological issues Roberts and Alito disagree on, and I have my doubts that McCain knows either.
1.31.2008 5:45pm
c.gray (mail):
Any conservative who thinks Obama or Hillary will provide a more pleasing set of nominees to the Federal Courts than McCain is a fool.

Even if you think McCain's nominees to the Supreme Court are likely to be indistinguishable from those of his Democratic opponent (which seems a pretty unreasonable view), there are the Federal Courts and District Courts to consider. The Federal and District Courts are where the bulk of case law actually gets made, and where those issues that come up for Supreme Court review get framed. There are a LOT of vacancies to these positions already, and many more will open during a four year presidency. Both political expediency and the sheer numbers of vacancies involved will force McCain to draw from a fairly broad spectrum of Republican lawyers and jurists when making appointments. He'll need to appoint Ailitos and Scalias to the bench even if he really would prefer to appoint nothing but Souters and O'Connors. These people, as a class, are going to have a very different set of legal viewpoints than a judiciary selected by, say, the person who gave us Zoe Baird, Kimba Wood and Janet Reno.
1.31.2008 5:52pm
Dave N (mail):
I guess Alito isn't either, but Bork was, and everyone remembers where (what) that got us. David Souter.
As a point of clarification, after Bork's defeat, the ultimate nominee was Anthony Kennedy, not David Souter. Justice Souter replaced Justice Brennan.

I would also note, at least in passing, that Senator McCain voted to confirm not only Justice Alito, but also Judge Bork to the Supreme Court.
1.31.2008 6:01pm
Waldensian (mail):

Incidentally, Romney said he would appoint judges like Robert, Alito, Scalia, and Thomas.

Where on earth are we going to find another judge like Thomas?!?!
1.31.2008 6:07pm
Anderson (mail):
But, I guess it also isn't surprising that your response was sarcastic and unhelpful.

Unhelpful is for you to judge, but I fail to catch the sarcasm. Obviously, every Republican candidate has the same four favorite justices. If there was any sarcasm, it was directed at Romney, not at anyone here.
1.31.2008 6:16pm
KeithK (mail):
The rabid RedStaters ... don't just want to win, they want to rub the other side's nose in the poop.

I don't want to rub their noses in poop. I just want to crush my enemies, see them driven before me and hear the lamentation of their women.
1.31.2008 6:29pm
Roy Mustang:
Bork was Reagan. Souter was Bush. How could you even get those two confused?
1.31.2008 6:32pm
Cold Warrior:
OK, smart guy Roy with the previously-incomprehensible post:

It got us Kennedy.

Ooh, big difference.
1.31.2008 6:38pm
Brett Bellmore:
This is a remarkably silly argument. McCain/Feingold. Unless McCain wants his proudest legislative accomplishment relegated to the dustbin of history, there's no way on God's green Earth he's going to nominate anybody who'd uphold the First amendment. Which means, not only no originalists, no strict constructionists, it even means no ACLU style 'civil libertarians'. NOBODY who'd uphold the language of the Constitution in the face of legislative will to the contrary.

Sure, to the extent that the Democrats let him without putting up too much of a fight, he might nominate some judges we'd like to the lower courts, where they couldn't do too much, (from his perspective) "damage". Just as a sop to the Republican base. But on the Supreme court? Never.

He may say what he wishes to the contrary, but his incentives are too clear for such claims to be plausible.
1.31.2008 6:45pm
Prosecutorial Indiscretion:
I don't want to rub their noses in poop. I just want to crush my enemies, see them driven before me and hear the lamentation of their women.

Might I recommend a prosecutorial career?

With respect to the initial post, Alito's my favorite justice and I'm still backing McCain. He may just not want to get bogged down in a knock-down, dragout confirmation battle over one qualified right-minded nominee when there may be another qualified right-minded nominee who could sail through with much less opposition, allowing the president to accumulate credibility rather than expending it and legitimating the conservative legal project in general.
1.31.2008 6:58pm
Roy Mustang:
Yeah, there's a huge difference between Kennedy and Souter. Grutter v Bollinger, for one.

Hell, I like Kennedy better O'Connor. Souter is the worst of the worst on social issues.


In any case, I don't blame you. Breyer, Souter, Kennnedy aren't exactly the superstars of the SC. Plus they all look alike anyway.
1.31.2008 7:20pm
Cold Warrior:
I don't think we can divine what types of Court appointments a future president will make based on prior policy proposals.

One might say that Romney's previous support for abortion rights would make it more likely that he would nominate judges who believe in the right to privacy.

One might say that Huckabee's support for anti-gay marriage legislation and/or an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment call into question his commitment to federalism as a guiding principle.

In other words, this is a nothing issue. In fact, re-reading Fund's version of the McCain statement, it's possible that McCain was just saying, "ahh, yes, Roberts, certainly types like him" without really intending to disparage or even distinguish Alito.
1.31.2008 7:25pm
John Fee (mail):
Republican administrations that have consciously tried to move the Court to the right (Nixon, Reagan and Bush II)have only barely and slowly succeeded, despite their conscious efforts. With some appointments they have moved backwards.

A Republican president who does not care about the issue, and especially if he reviles at judges who are demonstrably conservative, will not give us justices like John Roberts (there is not another John Roberts), but rather are likely to give us ones like Warren, Brennan, Blackmun, Stevens, and Souter -- all of whom were appointed by Republican presidents under the mistaken view that such candidates were either conservative or moderate-conservative. Conservative court watchers would be lucky to see McCain appoint someone who turns out like O'Connor or Kennedy, and they can forget about seeing appointments like Roberts, Alito, Scalia or Thomas.
1.31.2008 7:26pm
Cold Warrior:
Roy, I'm not sure I could distinguish Breyer from Souter if Breyer took those little glasses off. Kennedy? I think I could identify him.

But you're right; certainly none of those 3 is in any way (to use Obama's phrase about Reagan) a "transformitive" jurist.
1.31.2008 7:27pm
Bob from Ohio (mail):

My sources cannot remember exactly what McCain said next, but their recollection is that he described Alito as too conservative.


Well, that is useless. They don't remember what he said, but they are sure it was bad.
1.31.2008 8:32pm
Oren:
"I don't really think I've changed. I think there have been a lot of changes in the Court," said the 86-year-old justice. "I can see myself as a conservative, to tell you the truth, a judicial conservative." - Justice Stevens

I don't see how Justices can stay conservative if you keep moving the goalposts.
1.31.2008 8:36pm
Edward A. Hoffman (mail):
c.gray wrote:
Even if you think McCain's nominees to the Supreme Court are likely to be indistinguishable from those of his Democratic opponent (which seems a pretty unreasonable view), there are the Federal Courts and District Courts to consider. The Federal and District Courts are where the bulk of case law actually gets made, and where those issues that come up for Supreme Court review get framed. There are a LOT of vacancies to these positions already, and many more will open during a four year presidency. Both political expediency and the sheer numbers of vacancies involved will force McCain to draw from a fairly broad spectrum of Republican lawyers and jurists when making appointments. He'll need to appoint Ailitos and Scalias to the bench even if he really would prefer to appoint nothing but Souters and O'Connors. These people, as a class, are going to have a very different set of legal viewpoints than a judiciary selected by, say, the person who gave us Zoe Baird, Kimba Wood and Janet Reno.
The president has less say in these selections than you might think.

District court nominees are de facto selected by the senators from their state. Generally the senators from any given state take turns selecting a nominee, even when they are members of different parties. Presidents seldom intervene in such selections and instead nominate the person recommended by the senator whose turn it is to make the choice.

On the Circuit court level, most judgeships are informally associated with a particular state and are usually filled by someone that state's senators select. Other senators (especially those from other states in the same circuit) might challenge these selections, but it's a bit unusual for the president to push for someone neither of that seat's senators wants. The president is more actively involved in nominations to the D.C. Circuit than to the others, both because of that court's importance and because D.C. has no senators of its own.
1.31.2008 8:36pm
The General:
John McCain doesn't want to upset liberal democrats and there's no way in hell he'll nominate a true judicial conservative to the SCOTUS. He would definitely nominate a "consensus" type candidate, despite his campaign rhetoric and we'd end up with another O'Connor, Kennedy or even a Souter. The bottom line is that you can't trust McCain to take on the Democrats on this issue.
1.31.2008 9:12pm
A.:

John McCain doesn't want to upset liberal democrats


Do you suspect that he wants to upset conservative democrats, or are you just throwing around words you think are dirty?
1.31.2008 9:52pm
Cornellian (mail):
He would definitely nominate a "consensus" type candidate, despite his campaign rhetoric and we'd end up with another O'Connor, Kennedy or even a Souter.

You think nominating another Bork is a recipe for confirmation in a Democrat controlled Senate? You'd turn down another Anthony Kennedy to replace Ginsburg or Souter on grounds of his insufficiently pure conservatism?
1.31.2008 10:04pm
Prosecutorial Indiscretion:
District court nominees are de facto selected by the senators from their state. Generally the senators from any given state take turns selecting a nominee, even when they are members of different parties. Presidents seldom intervene in such selections and instead nominate the person recommended by the senator whose turn it is to make the choice.


Is this still the case? I recall a district court nominee in Connecticut coming under some ABA scrutiny with respect to her qualifications, and I believe her name was submitted to the President by the Republican governor rather than by either Senator.
2.1.2008 12:32am
Dave N (mail):
My understanding of federal district judgeships is that they are controlled by the senior Senator of the President's party. If there is no such person, then a senior politician (the Governor and/or the senior Congressman of the President's party) submits names to the White House for potential appointments.

Of course, it is good to get both Senators from a state on board with respect to a nominee, since a Senator can blue slip (place a hold) on a nomination from his state.
2.1.2008 1:25am
John Herbison (mail):

Bork was Reagan. Souter was Bush. How could you even get those two confused?


I suspect that the nexus there was that the memory of the fight in the Senate over Judge Bork, who had a long history of polemical writing, led the first President Bush to nominate someone without an incendiary paper trail (or to at least acquiesce in John Sununu's strong urging of the Souter nomination), so as to avoid a similar confirmation battle.
2.1.2008 2:30am
kimsch (mail) (www):
What about the Gang of 14? There are so many openings because nominations are not brought to the floor and not given an up or down vote...
2.1.2008 11:15am
Thales (mail) (www):
"Where on earth are we going to find another judge like Thomas?!?!"

It's easy. Get a time machine and go visit his alternate, invented history of 1791.
2.1.2008 11:41am