The Fool's Paradise of Immigration Restrictions:

Ilya Shapiro (no relation) of the Cato Institute has an interesting column detailing the irrational red tape that faces foreign skilled workers seeking to obtain H1-B visas that would allow them to stay in the United States for up to three years, with a later opportunity for renewal. He rightly labels current policy as an "April Fools for skilled workers" - hundreds of thousands of whom found out yesterday that they will have to wait till next year to have even a chance of getting into the US. Although immigrant skilled professionals make obvious contributions to the US economy and are highly unlikely to become welfare cases, current immigration law still prevents all a but a few thousand of them from entering each year - even on a temporary basis. In addition to the costs to the US economy, it's also worth emphasizing the losses to the would-be immigrants themselves - most of whom would have vastly better lives in the US than in their home countries.

When even the conservatives at National Review Online (who are generally highly skeptical about immigrants and immigration) publish an article arguing that a set of immigration restrictions should be loosened, you know that we have a real problem.

George Weiss (mail) (www):
i wonder though if theres a viable policy that would keep out the 'bad' immigrants who are more likely to be welfare/free emergency medical care..little income tax payers...from the 'good' skilled workers.

I'm playing devils advocate though-i basically agree with Cato
4.2.2008 2:32am
Lewis Maskell (mail):
To put it simply, people who are attempting to become legal immigrants end up getting discriminated against because of a bunch of rules supposedly enacted against illegal immigrants. Of course, the rules don't work because the illegal immigrants ignore them (a fact obvious to any sensible observer, but not apparently to politicians and various pressure groups). The people who end up getting harmed most are those who try to follow the rules.

As Leo Durocher said, nice guys finish last. In this case, lawbreakers get across the border, and then get rewarded for doing so.
4.2.2008 2:37am
unhyphenatedconservative (mail):
Bill Gates whines that we don't have enough kids studying to be engineers or computer science types. Yet my classmates got to see those jobs off-shored and now they want to import more folks from other countries.

I, on the other hand, had the brains to go into a profession in which I make transactions more complex, don't add all that much value and get to throw competitors outside the guild in prison. I love the law.

So tell, me, Ilya, what's your position on the Bar? I've always been amused by "libertarians" or the "libertarianish" who rail against restrictions in other protections but defend attorneys' position as Teamsters with suits.
4.2.2008 2:49am
mouse (mail):
Well, while H1-B visas are terribly restrictive, they need overhaul, not loosening per se.

The government should not run indentured servitude. People with H1-Bs are screwed financially by their employers, and can be screwed if they simply dont' file the right paperwork. They can hold up a green card application for years through their mistakes. Such things should not be permitted.

That said--why are we in need of more of them? Why are THESE specific industries okay for the influx, but not others? Why should the government be allowed to change the supply and demand of workers for some industries but not others? Yes, I know, they do it in other ways, too, but again: why is that a good thing?

The immigration system needs to be thrown out and rewritten from scratch. Simply, it should take those with assets and those with brains. It should take them by auction and lottery, and it should then give them a path to a green card where they are not indentured servants of employers.
4.2.2008 3:01am
Mohamed:

i wonder though if theres a viable policy that would keep out the 'bad' immigrants who are more likely to be welfare/free emergency medical care..little income tax payers...from the 'good' skilled workers.


Did you read the article? The H1-B program is actually specifically designed (at least the functional bits) to screen for highly skilled workers in industries that have difficulty filling open positions.

I think an important point is that the greatest failure of the program is not its failure to allow more skilled workers into the states but its failure to allow workers to STAY in the states. In my firm alone we've had a dozen of our best senior associates have to return to their home countries because of the administrative delay in the H1-B program. It essentially amount to the forced exportation of skilled labor.

Even worse is that fact that these firms have spent three years training and investing in these employees who are then forced to return home an apply their newfound expertise at foreign firms. Not only do we lose the skill here but we enrich our foreign competitors.
4.2.2008 3:33am
George Weiss (mail) (www):
Did you read the article? yes

The H1-B program is actually specifically designed (at least the functional bits) to screen for highly skilled workers in industries that have difficulty filling open positions. the article didn't mention that-nor did it describe how the H1-B's are set up to do this.-it just mentioned them as a type of foreign worker visa. but ill take your word for it.

one reason the gov may be limiting the H1-B's is precisely because some claim that the process is ineffective at screening out the 'bad' immigrants.
4.2.2008 3:41am
Mohamed:

one reason the gov may be limiting the H1-B's is precisely because some claim that the process is ineffective at screening out the 'bad' immigrants.


From the article: "H-1Bs allow employers to hire foreign workers in certain professional occupations."

The program is only for skilled professionals. The problem is that an unfortunate number of Americans, and lawyers for that matter, don't understand that there are rules in the current immigration system that provide more visas for skilled workers while trying to keep out the "bad" immigrants that you refer to. Again quoting the article:

"Unless Congress and the White House do something to fundamentally reshape immigration rules with respect to skilled workers — setting aside for the moment the gardeners and construction workers who get all the news coverage — things will only get worse."
4.2.2008 3:52am
Tony Tutins (mail):
unhyphenated conservative has it right: supply and demand means H1B types depress wages for American-resident engineers. Their advantage was shown during the dotcom boom because after the bust, H1Bs were quickly repatriated. In fact, an immigration lawyer of my acquaintance who made her living bringing in H1Bs had to switch her practice to real estate after the bust. Treat H1Bs as any contingent labor force.
4.2.2008 4:29am
George Weiss (mail) (www):
or maybe some Americans don't trust the ability of the program to screen-even if the program says it screens
4.2.2008 4:30am
stunned:
"[I]t's also worth emphasizing the losses to the would-be immigrants themselves - most of whom would have vastly better lives in the US than in their home countries."

There's room for debate about the extent to which this is true. I used to be a software developer and I worked with two people who went back to their home country, India, since it was home and their standard of living would be quite good. (And note, they both had greencards; this was not spurred by some visa problem.) Getting an H1-B is not often the difference between a good life and hustling in some slum.

I don't think it affects the analysis one way or the other, but stick with what you know, Somin.
4.2.2008 5:43am
Soronel Haetir (mail):
I don't get any screening argument here. As I understand it, the holder of an H1b has a guaranteed job waiting and is in deep trouble if they lose that job. Reference the indentured servitude comments above.
4.2.2008 6:25am
George Weiss (mail) (www):
As I understand it, the holder of an H1b has a guaranteed job waiting and is in deep trouble if they lose that job.

hmm what employer is going to guarantee somebody a job so that the person can then begin a long application process to get a h1b-which if they don't get they cant do the job and the place is stuck looking-but then if they do get it are obligating themselves-whenever it finally happens to make room for that guy on the payroll.

sounds fishy to me
4.2.2008 7:07am
George Weiss (mail) (www):
continued-

it seems more likely that people get other people to tell ICE that they are holding a special job open for them..so that they can get the h1b-so that they can then get into the us-and then hopefully stay illegally

the vast majority of illegals in the US didn't cross the boarder illegally-they overstayed their visa
4.2.2008 7:10am
NicholasV (mail) (www):
hmm what employer is going to guarantee somebody a job so that the person can then begin a long application process to get a h1b-which if they don't get they cant do the job and the place is stuck looking-but then if they do get it are obligating themselves-whenever it finally happens to make room for that guy on the payroll.

sounds fishy to me


So it's like Catch-22? Anyone who applies for an H1-B, who obviously knows that it's going to take a long time, therefore can't possibly be a valid applicant for an H1-B because it makes no sense to keep a special position open for so long?

Sounds like a bureaucratic nightmare to me...
4.2.2008 7:24am
dew:
Thank you for noting the article, but like so many articles about H1-Bs, the article completely misses the simple (and well known) problems with H1-Bs that causes most of the competition and shortages with H1B visas.

Many of the companies that go after thousands of H1-Bs are not US companies, and the biggest of those are Indian outsourcing firms. Somewhere over 70% of all H1-B visas go to Indian outsourcing shops, who usually bring workers to the US to be trained in jobs currently held by US employees, to eventually replace those US employees with outsource jobs in India when the now-trained people go back. The outsourcing companies often even create phantom jobs to apply for the visas, and then go shopping for real contract jobs at companies looking to outsource/offshore before actually bringing workers over. All of this is illegal, but almost never enforced (and if the US companies are a little clever, hard to enforce).

Raising the limits without fixing the problems (or simply enforcing the existing H1-B law) will simply increase those abuses while probably continuing to give "legitimate" H1-B applicants a small portion of the new H1-B applications.

The H1-B program is so broken in meeting its public goals, before increasing limits it either needs fixing or replacing. If it isn’t fixed or replaced, it should be simply shut down as a bad law – simply raising the cap on regular immigrants if they have engineering/science/medical degrees would be far better than the current train wreck (and I agree with Mohamed above, any fix should include an easier way to convert an H1-B into a greencard).
4.2.2008 7:48am
David Chesler (mail) (www):
Mohamed: In my firm alone we've had a dozen of our best senior associates have to return to their home countries because of the administrative delay in the H1-B program. It essentially amount to the forced exportation of skilled labor.

Why didn't your firm hire citizens or permanent residents in the first place?

I'm a software engineer. I've got an applied math degree (CS specialty) from a good school, and I've kept my skills current and largely buzzword compliant. I've been out of work some 33 out of the 84 month since March 2001. It looks like I'm being recalled, starting tomorrow, for a project of a couple of more months at the firm where I worked September through mid-January: My nominal-dollar hourly rate is about 20% more than what I was getting in 1990.

I won't claim that anybody "owes" me a job, and I'm uncomfortable claiming I have a right to a job simply by virtue of being an American. If it turns out I've spent 4 years of education and 25 years of proefessional experience learning how to make buggy whips instead of going into unhyphenatedconservative's field, or finance or investing, that's my mistake.

I understand that a young Indian might be willing to work long hours at less pay, and without the ability to sell his services to another employer, in return for being in America at all.

But please don't tell me that there is a shortage of intelligent, compentent engineers domestically, nor that it is to the strategic advantage of the United States to give high-technology experience to foreigners for a few years, to have those jobs be overseas in the first place, to discourage our best and brightest to avoid technology if they want steady work, or that this is anything but a means for employers to lower the cost of labor. As mouse said, why THESE industries?

Ilya Shapiro, in the article, says My current employer managed to snag an H-1B for me, but only because I fit into an exemption for workers who have a post-graduate degree from an American university. This exemption has a 20,000-visa cap ... which has previously been hit later than the regular quota but this year is also expected to require a lottery.
. I hate to doubt him, but that sounds a lot more like the L-1 program than H-1B.
4.2.2008 7:57am
George Weiss (mail) (www):
NicholasV


So it's like Catch-22? Anyone who applies for an H1-B, who obviously knows that it's going to take a long time, therefore can't possibly be a valid applicant for an H1-B because it makes no sense to keep a special position open for so long?

Sounds like a bureaucratic nightmare to me.


hence the fundemental problem with the program
4.2.2008 8:08am
dew:
A couple of additional comments on H1-B abuses:
- Besides the usual lack of resources, the US Department of Labor cannot investigate H1-B (or the related L-1) visa problems without a specific formal complaint, even if the application is pretty clearly fraudulent. The outsourcing companies thrive on that.
- Another frequent complaint of H1-Bs is that the salaries are sometimes significantly below the typical local rate, effectively making H1-Bs cheap indentured servants. This accusation has been publicly made against some large US companies who are not using the program to outsource, including my current employer.

The problem with outsourcing might be fix-able in several ways, but I am not sure how to fix the indentured servant problem.
4.2.2008 8:32am
Mohamed:
David - just to respond to your question "Why didn't your firm hire citizens or permanent residents in the first place?"

The reason for the hiring of H1-B based applicants is two-fold:

1) They were often more qualified/higher quality candidates for the position. There is in fact a shortage of highly qualified candidates in the United States. In other, the general quality of our workforce is higher than most but if you want to staff your firm with the cream-of-the-crop then you can't just pull from the US labor market.

2) International experience is also a major issue. At a minimum foreign candidates bring with them language skills which make marketing/collaborating with other international firms easier. Many also bring with them a network of contact from new/emerging markets. Of course, this is less of an issue with technical firms and more useful to service firms.

NicholasV - actually the whole reason there is H1-B's is because these positions remain unfilled, so it is not uncommon for a company to hold a position open for a significant period of time until it finds a suitable candidate, especially in highly technical fields. Remember, if the job is not there then the H1-B visa CANNOT be issued.

dew - spot on, I agree this is a huge problem but there is at least some political attention being focused upon it already. More info here.
4.2.2008 8:32am
Displaced Midwesterner (mail):
Why didn't your firm hire citizens or permanent residents in the first place?


Capitalism. In both its light and dark aspects. Companies use H1B visa workers because they are able to more efficiently fill a particular role. Many H1B workers are hired specifically for some particularly unusual combination of traits. This especially used to be the case (I'm not sure to what degree it still is) with software programmers. There actually were very few American programmers who possessed the required programming knowledge. The other, darker reason, is that some companies also hire H1B workers because they are more easily exploited and thus, also, a more efficient labor force for that reason.


it seems more likely that people get other people to tell ICE that they are holding a special job open for them..so that they can get the h1b-so that they can then get into the us-and then hopefully stay illegally


No, not really. Most H1Bs end up going to fairly large companies, who spend loads of money on lawyers, often high-priced lawyers at a handful of big firms with immmigration practices, to get H1B workers. There is fraud I'm sure, but the type of fraud you seem so concerned about is hardly a blip on the radar.
4.2.2008 8:48am
Ted10 (mail):
For employers to hire people under this program there's supposed to be an attempt made to first find qualified local people.

Here's a great youtube video of a Pittsburgh immigration law firm that teaches companies how to meet the legal requirements of the program while ensuring they do not find 'qualified' local applicants, thus allowing them to bring in people from overseas at a much cheaper rate.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=TCbFEgFajGU
4.2.2008 9:03am
David Chesler (mail) (www):
Mohamed, Displaced Midwesterner: What are these specialized skills that Americans not only don't have, but can't be quickly taught? Just how creamy were those H-1Bs who were actually hired? All IIT grads?
4.2.2008 9:11am
Wugong:
I'm not an economist, so please forgive me if this question is an ignorant one, but what is the difference in economic terms (i.e. setting aside possible national security issues, etc.) between restricting US employers in the hiring of foreign workers and, say, farm subsidies, steel tariffs, etc.? David Chesler makes the point above that US firms are hiring Indian employees primarily because they will do the same work for a lower wage. Indeed. Why would any employer want to pay someone more than they have to for a given skill set? That they often do not do so shows that the extra costs are far from trivial.
4.2.2008 9:29am
David Chesler (mail) (www):
Wugong, a US firm would want to a US worker more primarily because it is illegal for foreigners to work here, with minor exceptions like H-1B. (I'd argue that there are advantages to US workers in innovation and attitude, and an externality like strategic advantages to the country in growing home-grown talent.)

H-1B is somewhat like a farm subsidy or a steel tariff, but it's more like there is a general import tariff, but Nike and Reebok point out how so few American companies want to make sneakers, so there ought to be a lower tariff on sneakers. That is, these 390,000 workers (65,000 let in each year, but the visa is good for 3 years, 6 if renewed) are the exception to the general rule.

Yes it is my ox being gored.

I'd be happy if we could discuss this on economic terms, instead of letting Microsoft frame this as a critical shortage of some skills that Americans don't have and can't get.

The unemployment numbers for engineers do not reflect the number of available US engineers, because engineers are intelligent and versatile enough that they are more likely to be underemployed, or employed in another field, or under some sort of early retirement or semi-retirement, than to be looking for engineering work year after year. That doesn't even take into account the many students who, seeing what the employment prospects are like, don't go into the field at all. There is no shortage!
4.2.2008 9:42am
dew:
David Chesler makes the point above that US firms are hiring Indian employees primarily because they will do the same work for a lower wage.

I generally support more immigration for people with professional backgrounds, even though many directly compete with me for jobs (more than half of my immediate group is foreign born, and I expect most of those folks began as H1Bs).

But to be fair, your comment is the whole point of many H1B visas, even when everything works properly as expected under the law. My company uses some H1Bs, but if we had used headhunters and at the same time beefed the salary ranges for those jobs well above the industry norms, I expect we would have been able to fill the jobs with experienced local talent fairly quickly.
4.2.2008 9:54am
dew:
David Chesler I'd be happy if we could discuss this on economic terms, instead of letting Microsoft frame this as a critical shortage of some skills that Americans don't have and can't get.

David I generally disagree with what I think your position is, in that I support more immigration of professionals to the US.

But Microsoft is a special case. They whine louder than most companies, but their problems are primarily self-inflicted. On one hand, Seattle is not known for producing lots of top-notch CS/engineering grads locally, and on the other, with some small exceptions, they have refused to do what most other large computer companies have done, and created additional development centers where the pools of potential employees already live (SF Bay area, Boston, Austin, Minneapolis, Orange County CA, etc). In my experience, they have nearly depleted the pool of top software-types in the US who are willing to work at Microsoft *and* are willing to move to Seattle. So I play a very tiny violin when they whine about H1Bs. YMMV.
4.2.2008 10:10am
...Max... (mail):
I agree that a straight immigration path would be vastly preferrable by the majority of current H1B holders to the abomination that the H1B program has become. Back in 1995 when I got my H1B it was a relative novelty, presumably introduced to speed up the paperwork when green card cycle stretched into years from the original 6 months or less. The assumption was that the second LCA is filed at the time the new employee is hired and the 3 (or, worst case, up to 6) years on H1B serve simply as a buffer. Well, look where it got everybody now.

As to the laughable myth about engineers coming out of woodwork if the greedy capitalist knocks another $10K/yr on top of salaries across the board... well, I can laugh too. When skills of a business administrator, salesman or, yes, a lawyer are, on average, rewarded higher than those of an engineer -- and time and effort investment to become a great engineer is higher than that required for the professions I mentioned before (possibly excepting lawyers) -- bright people would not pick technical careers. Immigrants, even those that may have gone to college here, have cultural, social and linguistical bareers that make those more lucrative professions relatively harder to enter. I honestly don't see where the complaints come from: it appears to be the best possible deal for everybody, except the other countries that lose their best and brightest. And those have only themselves to blaim.
4.2.2008 10:35am
Oligonicella:
Mohamed --

"There is in fact a shortage of highly qualified candidates in the United States."

That is simply baloney. The bulk of the H1 programmers I have seen have absolutely no greater knowledge or training than the citizens they are preempting.

dew --

"...if we had used headhunters and at the same time beefed the salary ranges for those jobs well above the industry norms..."

Unnecessary. Simply remove the hidden clock time the H1's put in.
4.2.2008 10:56am
...Max... (mail):

"There is in fact a shortage of highly qualified candidates in the United States."


That is simply baloney.

Not true. There is a shortage -- just look at the candidates showing up for the interviews where the salary range is not set ahead of time :( I do agree that the bulk of H1Bs is no better, but they aren't "preempting" anyone. As long as the corporate management bozos will insist on having huge IT departments staffed (or is it stuffed?) with warm bodies -- instead of productive engineering teams -- they will get those bodies, and won't pay them too much either. What, you want to push more Americans bright enough to be making real money elsewhere into THAT environment?

As to removing the clock, I'm with you. Why not simply give a green card to anyone who pays enough taxes year after year and let him take the oath of citizenship after five?
4.2.2008 11:07am
SeaLawyer:

Not true. There is a shortage -- just look at the candidates showing up for the interviews where the salary range is not set ahead of time


There is no shortage in qualified candidates. There is a shortage of qualified candidates willing to work for peanuts, put in long hours, and a grueling on-call. Once companies start treating people in the IT industry like they do any other position then you will have a ton of qualified people.
4.2.2008 11:38am
Roger Schlafly (www):
No, there is no shortage of computer programmers or any other workers where H-1Bs are filling jobs. Most of the H-1Bs are for Indian outsourcing, and they are hired simply because they are cheaper than Americans. Most of the jobs could be filled by recent graduates with no special skills.
4.2.2008 11:46am
...Max... (mail):
There is a shortage of qualified candidates willing to work for peanuts, put in long hours, and a grueling on-call.

Uh... you don't know what you're talking about. The [small] company I work for has flexible working day, on-call is unknown and their job postings do not specify target salary range -- compensation is discussed only after the interview. THERE IS A SHORTAGE ALL RIGHT -- if you want people who write working and maintainable software, not those who memorized the buzzwords. And comparing my experience in the software industry with what I heard about desk jobs outside of it, I DON'T WANT to be treated "like any other position"...
4.2.2008 11:48am
dew:
dew --
"...if we had used headhunters and at the same time beefed the salary ranges for those jobs well above the industry norms..."

Unnecessary. Simply remove the hidden clock time the H1's put in.
I must confess, I don't understand at all what you mean here. What "hidden clock time?"
4.2.2008 11:54am
Randy R. (mail):
Having a position with a large tech council, I can verify the fact that there are not as many software engineers as there used to be. Once the dot com's bubble burst, more grads are going into biomed and biotech. Whether there is an actual shortage, I don't know. But there certainly are less people.

"That said--why are we in need of more of them?" This is a little off topic, but I see thousands and thousands of qualified skilled workers eager to come to the US and live the dream. on the other hand, I see cities around the rust belt losing population.

Here's a simple solution: Let them immigrate to the US, but require them to live within the boundaries of a city like Buffalo, Syracuse, Cleveland, or Toledo. The cities would be revitalized, they pay taxes, everyone's happy, no?
4.2.2008 11:58am
SeaLawyer:

Uh... you don't know what you're talking about. The [small] company I work for has flexible working day, on-call is unknown


I am glad you have flexible hours and no on-call, but that is not typical of the industry. If you can't find qualified candidates then you are not trying. Thanks for the soda straw view.
4.2.2008 12:00pm
DeezRightWingNutz:
All this talk of "unfilled jobs" and "unique skills" seems like hogwash to me.

No American is willing to fill my job opening of gourmet chef/roofer/personal fluffer. So what? Oh, you want to know the pay, I'm currently offering, zilch, but the benefits are great. If your job opening is unfilled, try increasing compensation (monetary or otherwise). Or hire two people to do the job. Or hire someone and train him. Or don't fill the job, since maybe no one really wants to pay for the product of that labor.

See, I've got a great company. We make cars that are in every way identical to a Porche 911, but we sell them for $5,000. The problem is, I can't fill the slot I have for my one and only employee. He's the one who makes the cars for $5,000 apiece.

In my ideal world, I'd say we let pretty much everyone into the US who wants to come. When I suggest this to other people, they're often shocked and think that this country couldn't possibly accommodate that many people. But why couldn't the US accommodate one or two billion people? Plus, once the good guys move here, we can feel less guilty when we bomb other countries.
4.2.2008 12:02pm
Roger Schlafly (www):
an H-1B cannot lead to a green card
Not true. A H-1B is allowed to simultaneously apply for a green card, and many of them do.
damaging both pocketbooks and heartstrings from Silicon Valley to the Bay of Bengal.
Every H-1B in Silicon Valley puts an American engineer out of work. Google complains that it cannot hire enough H-1Bs, but the typical H-1B only makes $50k per year. There is no shortage of Americans who want to work for Google.
4.2.2008 12:12pm
DangerMouse:
The H-1B program is just another means of corporate welfare. It is a gigantic scam designed to permit corporations to depress wages and hire people by claiming that there are no skilled American workers. It is 100% complete hogwash, and anyone who supports it knowing its true effects is either bought and paid for, or a first class moron.

In the software industy particularly, it has been used to depress wages to staggering levels. As shown in the Youtube video linked above, its "requirements" are laughed at by corporate officials and their legal advisors, all as a means of hiring someone who is willing to work half the rate.

Lots of Americans are in full support of depressing wages by hiring immigrants to do the work of programming, but it has serious effects. No one is going into software programming anymore, Randy, because college kids are not idiots. They know about the H-1B visa program and how it is basically a tool designed to import software engineers from India to work at pennies on the dollar. They read forums and blogs and they KNOW that it's a scam. They are smart to avoid software programming majors, because once they graduate they might get a job, but if they work for 5 years or so and try to go somewhere else, nobody will hire them. Frankly, they'll be lucky if they got a job at all.

You can't have an economy in which all your skilled workers are foreigners sending money home to their country, and the rest of America is either working at wall mart or are lawyers gaming the system for those companies.
4.2.2008 12:15pm
DeezRightWingNutz:
There are a shortage of Eithiopian chefs. See, I really like the food, but I can't get it easily, and I'm not willing to you know, hire a chef at market value, so "there's a shortage."

As for the CS/CE guys who are unhappy, just be glad I'm not president. The way I see it, the government is subsidizing you by not letting in the thousands of (non-terrorist disease free) Indians who want to work here and can't get H1Bs.

Buy libertarian brand soap. Their boxes are the best stands.
4.2.2008 12:16pm
...Max... (mail):
I love it when lawyers high-handedly argue about engineering qualifications. After all, you know all there is to know about software if you visit SlashDot once a week, right?

Hint: you'll get much more college kids into engineering schools if you make legal career less lucrative than the engineering one. And few H1Bs will stand a chance in that environment. While you're at it, make sure salesmen don't make commission either. And entrepreneurs are only entitled to a "fair share" of their profit...

Why do you think there were so many wholly native scientists and engineers in the former Soviet Union, and so few lawyers and businessmen? Want to replicate those conditions?
4.2.2008 12:30pm
george (mail):
Why would forcing American companies to hire only American workers (and paying them more) help Americans? The cost would be passed onto the consumers right? Is this something like the price of drugs, where Americans pay higher prices domestically but can sneak the same less expensive drugs in from Canada or overseas, except replace "drugs" with "workers"? Faced with similar products, why pay more?
4.2.2008 12:53pm
M. Gross (mail):
It should be mentioned that not all H1Bs work in the software industry. The Petroleum Engineering field fills almost all of its PhD positions with foreign students, in large part because the undergraduate is so lucrative that few American students wish to pursue a graduate degree, especially the oil prices and salaries this high.
4.2.2008 1:10pm
Tony Tutins (mail):

Why would forcing American companies to hire only American workers (and paying them more) help Americans? The cost would be passed onto the consumers right?

Sure, just like if farmers stopped hiring illegals to pick their crops, the price of broccoli would go up ten cents a pound. In fact, the short term need for cheap intellectual labor suggests that the US should develop an analog to the old Bracero program. Call it the "Cerebro" program.


Is this something like the price of drugs, where Americans pay higher prices domestically but can sneak the same less expensive drugs in from Canada or overseas, except replace "drugs" with "workers"?

Drug companies use the American market to recover most of their development costs. Whatever profit foreign countries supply is gravy. Similarly American engineering textbook publishers recover most of their publishing costs from American students, while authorizing identical editions in such "underdeveloped" countries like Singapore or Argentina for 15% of the US price. (The third-world editions are in trade paperback format; they don't have the cheesy hardback bindings of the US editions.)
4.2.2008 1:21pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
Ilya you should take a little time to get informed about the H1-B non-immigrant visa program, then you might not make such foolish statements. This issue has been studied for years, and I suggest you read of what Professor Norm Matloff (Department of Computer Science, UC Davis) has written about it. Start with his comprehensive paper in the University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform. Or at least browse his web page.

First the H1-B program does not bring highly skilled workers in the US; there is a separate program for that. Then there is no shortage of domestic technical talent in the US. Even the industry has stopped pushing this ridiculous excuse. The program is designed to produce cheap labor at the expense of American workers, and has led to massive age discrimination. The program is also used to facilitate off shoring, which further reduces American jobs. Even Americans willing to work for the reduced wages find employers prefer H1-Bs because they are have no mobility. They have no mobility because a job change resets the green-card clock, and that's the real reason H1-Bs come here is to get on that track.

One US law firm held a workshop where speakers instructed employers on how they could avoid hiring Americans. Among other things, they told them where to advertise jobs so Americans might not see the listings. They made the mistake of posting a video of the whole workshop on the Internet only to see it create a firestorm as it gave lie to every stupid excuse the industry and their toadies have advanced to justify the program.

The H1-B program should be cancelled not enhanced as it is unnecessary and only hurts American workers. If you are so in love with cheap labor, then why not import slaves?
4.2.2008 1:35pm
A.C.:
One of the reasons people in developing countries make less money is that the infrastructure there is less developed. There are problems with roads, electricity supply, and so on that limit what people there can produce and market, even though they may be as smart and qualified as people in developed countries.

If one worker from a developing country moves to a developed country, he or she is no longer limited by the poor infrastructure at home. He or she can produce as much as anyone else in the new location, so there is no reason that he or she should be paid less.

Except for bargaining power and lack of equivalent options, which mean that he or she will probably be induced to accept less.

This isn't a catastrophe for the people in the developed country as a whole -- yet -- but it becomes a problem when there is a lot of it happening in one industry or area. Wages go down for everyone, so people who might have been stable, home-owing taxpayers in a previous era are unstable temp workers in the new one. If a whole industry goes that way, no one will spend four (or more) years and loads of tuition money to get the skills that the industry demands. Human capital erodes. (Cf. England.) If a whole city or region goes that way, the tax base gets wonky and the infrastructure erodes. Either way, the US loses something it had.

I'd rather see the jobs go overseas to the cheaper workers than see them done here with immigrant labor at below the going rate. Companies operating in India are trying to improve the infrastructure there so that they can become more productive. This will increase what Indians can earn in India, and over time will close the wage gap by moving Indian wages and conditions up rather than by moving US wages and conditions down. I don't know which other countries have similar projects underway, but it seems like an obvious move for any country that wants to undertake economic growth in a serious way. It's not like the size of the economic pie is fixed, after all. It can be made larger as well as smaller, and India has amazing consumer potential.*

That strikes me as the right solution for the overwhelming majority of people in other countries, most of whom will never leave home. Driving US wages down strikes me as the wrong one, in that it harms current US workers and only benefits a small group of others.


* Maybe we should be sending more Americans over there to learn the languages and figure out how to do business in that environment. No need for a one-way street here.
4.2.2008 1:42pm
David Chesler (mail) (www):
...Max... The [small] company I work for has flexible working day, on-call is unknown and their job postings do not specify target salary range -- compensation is discussed only after the interview. THERE IS A SHORTAGE ALL RIGHT -- if you want people who write working and maintainable software, not those who memorized the buzzwords.

Which skills can't you find? Maybe I've got them, or can get them.

I've got family ties and a lot of human capital built up here on Route 128 -- and I've figured if I can't find work here in high tech, it won't be better elsewhere -- but I'd consider a relocation for the right guarantee and compensation. (I'm not going to move to Seattle for a 3-month contract: in 3 months I'd be in the same place I am now, except in a city with which I'm less familiar, and without the social support.)

dew: H1-B isn't about immigration. It's lose-lose all around. We don't get mid-career Americans out of the deal, since they go back home. And it drives Americans out of the field. In the short term, the employer may win by getting more hours for less pay -- I'm biased, but there's a lot of good home-grown talent and a lot of bad foreign talent: even when I'm not competing for the job I recommend employers take better talent even if they have to pay for it. Bad design now can cost multiples of the time and money saved in maintenance later.

Google has a small shop in Cambridge. Last year I got through the HR and tech screens over the phone from California and New York, a phone screen from Cambridge, and one in-person at Cambridge. I wasn't completely on my game that day, but I thought I well enough, solving the problems brought out by two engineers. I liked the place, though at 45 I would have been an old man. Apparently I wasn't Googly enough, because that was the end of it.

I do contracts if they get me working faster, and I don't have an issue if the requirement says "Must have Linux device driver experience" because they need someone to hit the ground running on a 4-week project, but I'm having interviews that go well, and then go nowhere. I'm flexible on salary, but I'm aiming for about 10% more than the plateau I hit in 2004. In the past month I was on the verge of an offer from a company that does pretty much what my last employer does, but then the manager was out for a week with the flu, and then he was behind on a quick deliverable... Another company brought me in right after they'd made a hire, while they were thinking about if they needed another software engineer. I guess my recruiter's salesperson got my resume in front of the right person a little too late. I nailed the first interview, but they're not hiring at the moment. I've just been recalled for another project for the place I contracted August though January. They sell a product with embedded software, but they can't get the budget for a full-time software engineer/mathematician, even once I was a known quantity and proved that I could talk to the multiple disciplines of scientist they had. I showed initiative on some things, and followed orders on others there, and generally did a good enough job that they extended me once and have now recalled me, so I didn't blow this one.

As I said, I've been out of work more than 1/3 of the time since soon after Y2K.

George: It would help this American. Are consumers saving now? Are the products similar enough? And is there a long-term strategic benefit to have experienced workers around?

(That goes for most fields: Why hire someone with 20 years experience when a kid out of college will do the job for less? Why not send the message that if you go into the field now you'll find yourself middle-aged and unemployed?)
4.2.2008 1:42pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
“ … even though they may be as smart and qualified as people in developed countries.”

That’s true for India and China, or at least the urban regions of those countries. But on the whole, the inhabitants of third world countries have lower average IQs than the developed world. Perhaps that’s why they’re less developed. Of course you can recruit from the smartest and most qualified anywhere, and we’ve always done that. We were bringing in the “best and the brightest” 50 years ago. We’ve always had a special visa for this. On the other hand, the H1-B program has nothing to do with bringing in “best and the brightest.” All you need is any old BS degree to qualify.
4.2.2008 2:07pm
...Max... (mail):
Which skills can't you find? Maybe I've got them, or can get them

In the mail. Remember that I work for a SMALL company...

We don't get mid-career Americans out of the deal, since they go back home.

Is 23 years in business mid-career enough for you? I haven't gone back. In fact I am now a US citizen. So are a multitude of my friends and acquaintances who went through H1B. And most of those "temporary Indian employees" only go back because they cannot get past the I-140 backlog.

Actually, I very much sympathize with you as I suspect our careers are in the same dead spot: long resume, very high technical ability, high expectations for compensation and scope of responsibilities. In short: a non-commodity, niche product. But why are you so sure the H1B competition in what makes your life in this niche so hard? Isn't it just the fact that it IS a niche, a rather narrow one at that?Yes, I very well know that "experience with widget A" is a ridiculous measure for someone with 20+ years in engineering. Hiring managers still apply it right and left; also the management is always willing to hire someone they know, no matter how fleetingly, over a highly qualified man off the street for a position of any responsibility. None of it has anything to do with immigration but everything to do with how things are in business, human psychology or what have you.
4.2.2008 2:25pm
Ken Arromdee:
Uh... you don't know what you're talking about. The [small] company I work for has flexible working day, on-call is unknown and their job postings do not specify target salary range -- compensation is discussed only after the interview.

The most obvious question here is "Did you overspecify the job requirements?"

The industry is notorious for this, sometimes even demanding people have experience in something for longer than it existed. Do the requirements say anything like "needs 5 years of experience on (specific brand of database) on (specific brand of machine) under (specific operating system)"?

Also, where are you located? I can imagine some places have shortages without there being a shortage in general in the US.
4.2.2008 2:57pm
David Chesler (mail) (www):
Ken, ...Max... was kind enough to point me to his employer. I won't be pursuing it because I'm not about to relocate, but I can vouch that the stated requirements were written flexibly, they seem to want someone with good experience in a few out of several key areas.
4.2.2008 3:04pm
...Max... (mail):
The industry is notorious for this, sometimes even demanding people have experience in something for longer than it existed

True. But when you have people showing up for an interview who obviously don't have a clue about things highlighted in their resume, job requirements are hard to blame.

And I am in the Dallas area. Not exactly a boomtown for the last 7 years, but not an IT ghosttown anymore either. And in fact I've heard sentiments echoing mine throughout the last recession: it's not that you don't get enough applicants to bury you under, it's WHO you get.

I'll venture a guess that there is a worldwide shortage of good software engineers (and I don't mean ONLY software engineers, just speaking about the niche I am familiar with). United States has a lot to attract them -- why throw away the advantage?

And no, you cannot separate wheat from the chaff with stricter LCA requirements. Sorry, lawyers who write them are even less qualified to judge engineering abilities than a median hiring manager is.
4.2.2008 3:07pm
Bruce de la Vega (mail) (www):
The annual "limit" on H-1B visas, such as it is, is over 85K, not 65K. Reporting it as 65K would be misleading. It is broken down as follows, according to information on the USCIS web site:
1,400 nationals of Chile;
5,400 nationals of Singapore;
20,000 with master's and doctor's degrees from US colleges and universities;
58,200 with "bachelor's degrees or equivalent experience" from any hole-in-the-wall in the world;
unlimited visas for those employed by non-profit research outfits;
unlimited visas for those employed for local, state and federal research;
unlimited visas for those employed by US colleges &universities.

But the numbers of applications approved each year exceed those numbers, according the the USCIS annual report "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B)":
year Initial renewed+extended total
1999 134,411 na na
2000 136,787 120,853 257,640
2001 201,079 130,127 331,206
2002 103,584 93,953 197,537
2003 105,314 112,026 217,340
2004 130,497 156,921 287,418
2005 116,927 150,204 267,131
year Initial renewed+extended total

The numbers of visas actually issued, OTOH, is what matters. These numbers are available in the State Department's annual reports:
1996 58,327
1997 80,547
1998 91,360
1999 116,513
2000 133,290
2001 161,643
2002 118,352
2003 107,196
2004 138,977
2005 124,374
2006 135,861
2007 154,690
DoS stats page
FY2007 table XVI A
FY2007 table XVI B
FY2006 table XVI A

There are usually a few thousand unclaimed visas each year, primarily from the sub-categories set aside for Chile and Singapore. USCIS says they roll these over, adding them to the 58,200 general allotment for the next year.

new H-1B visas by degree
year noHSdiploma HS <1yearcollege
2000 554 288 158
2001 247 895 284
2002 169 806 189
2003 148 822 122
2004 123 690 137
2005 107 440 77

new H-1B visas by degree
year 1+yearcollege Associate's total2000 1290 696 4290
2001 1376 1181 4803
2002 849 642 4015
2003 623 534 3718
2004 421 432 3375
2005 358 363 2987
4.2.2008 3:45pm
ed (mail) (www):
Hmmmmm

H1B visas have gone a long way to destroying the software industry here in the USA.

Example:
new college graduate with zero experience starting salary: $65k

experienced software developer with 10 years experience: $85k

Essentially income for software developers has completely stagnated. Which is why so many students, quite rationally, haven't bothered to go into the field.
4.2.2008 4:22pm
ed (mail) (www):
Hmmmmm

Actually what I find curious is this:

what advantage is there for being an American citizen in America?

Seriously. Your job can be outsourced to India, something that happened to me recently. And your replacement can be brought here from India. You don't have to be a citizen to vote, own property or have a job. You don't need to be a citizen to have a bank account here, invest money or get an education. In many cases you don't need to be a citizen to get welfare or other government benefits.

Previously there was at least the principle that an American would be preferred for an American job, but that no longer applies. So really what advantage is there for being an American in America?

...

IMO the whole "global economy" is a pile of bullshit that's designed to suck away as much American prosperity as possible and shift it to third world countries.
4.2.2008 4:40pm
...Max... (mail):
new college graduate with zero experience starting salary: $65k

Where? I have heard of exactly one example like this here in Texas -- back in 1998 or 1999, when anyone with the body above room temperature was considered a programmer. Not since then. The college in question was UT at Austin -- not exactly a diploma mill.

experienced software developer with 10 years experience: $85k

A quick Dice search in my area reveals quite a few positions above $100K. I doubt 10+ years would be a requirement for most of them. Note that Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the least expensive large metro areas in the country.
4.2.2008 4:49pm
Tony Tutins (mail):
Bruce de la Vega's data clearly shows the dotcom boom and bust, with H1B visas peaking in 2001.
4.2.2008 5:07pm
DeezRightWingNutz:

what advantage is there for being an American citizen in America?



What did American citizens do to deserve an advantage? Or, conversely, what did foreigners do to deserve a disadvantage?


I guess I don't understand how/if the the following is supposed to generate sympathy:


...can't find a job (but not willing to relocate)...

...only a 30% (85k/65k - 1) increase in real wages after 10 years (that means average raises of inflation + 2.7%)...

Hey pa Joad, your farmland is drying up, move to California.

And a 2.7% annual increase in real wages is pretty good, relatively speaking, isn't it? I thought real wages (before benefits) were stagnating on average. Although I realize that this is the median real wage and doesn't account for changes in the workforce population (e.g., experienced baby boomers retiring).
4.2.2008 6:51pm
Roger Schlafly (www):
What did American citizens do to deserve an advantage? Or, conversely, what did foreigners do to deserve a disadvantage?
I am an American, and whether I deserve it or not, I vote for politicians who promote policies that are good for Americans. You will find that people in other countries promote their own interests.
4.2.2008 7:43pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
“What did American citizens do to deserve an advantage? Or, conversely, what did foreigners do to deserve a disadvantage?”

The planted axiom in this question assumes nation states are not sovereign entities with citizens that have benefits and obligations that accrue that citizenship. If citizenship means nothing, then you no longer have a nation, you have a trading zone. If that’s the case then don’t ask me to put life and limb and risk because I protect nothing.
4.2.2008 8:54pm
Alcyoneus (mail):
There is a simple proof that there is no shortage of IT workers at any level. IT wages have been declining for ten years. It is not possible to have a shortage of a good while the price is declining.

Ilya Somen is full of shit.
4.2.2008 9:28pm
Alcyoneus (mail):
Dang. Ilya Shapiro, not Ilya Somen. Sorry.
4.2.2008 9:29pm
David Chesler (mail) (www):
I guess I don't understand how/if the the following is supposed to generate sympathy]

It's not supposed to generate sympathy, it's supposed to demonstrate that there is no desperate shortage of engineers such that we would need to change the general immigration policy to bring them in.

(but not willing to relocate)...

What's the point in relocating? I did once, but I set down roots. If I thought that for the next quarter-century 128 high-tech was going to go the way of the shoe factories it replaced, while someplace else were going to be the new Silicon Whatever, I'd move again. But there's no point moving if the job is just going to dry up in a year.
4.2.2008 9:34pm
Alcyoneus (mail):
Previously there was at least the principle that an American would be preferred for an American job, but that no longer applies. So really what advantage is there for being an American in America?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Indeed, there is great disadvantage. If you come here from Mexico and defraud the government of tax money for a decade you get citizenship as a reward. If a citizen does the same thing, they get ten years in a federal prison.

Emigrate. That's what I'm doing. Other governments aren't as stupid as the US's. Don't worry, while the effective taxation rate in other countries a bit higher, you also actually get services back. Vote with you feet! I'm taking my math doctorate somewhere else.
4.2.2008 9:39pm
DeezRightWingNutz:
I accept Roger Schlafly's answer, but I'd argue that restrictive immigration policies, on balance, don't directly benefit most Americans. If you're receiving protection from foreign competition, then it may be to your benefit, but I'd argue the diffuse costs to other Americans are higher.

I do still worry somewhat about immigration potentially making this country less culturally libertarian, but it's a risk I'm willing to take get other countries' best, brightest , and most ambitious over here.

The planted axiom in this question assumes nation states are not sovereign entities with citizens that have benefits and obligations that accrue that citizenship. If citizenship means nothing, then you no longer have a nation, you have a trading zone. If that’s the case then don’t ask me to put life and limb and risk because I protect nothing.


You've got a deal. I get my free trade uptopia and I won't draft you into the army.
4.2.2008 9:52pm
Alcyoneus (mail):
You've got a deal. I get my free trade uptopia and I won't draft you into the army.

This is why libertarians are stupid. Your dreamy anarchist-state is logically impossible. Without the state, you don't have your market; without the military you don't have your state. Duh.

But tell me this. Why would libertarians support the US government creating a private market for IT labor? Because they confuse capitalism with corporatism. Another reason libertarians are stupid.

Crypto-anarchism need not be taken seriously, except as a small political threat to sane candidates.
4.2.2008 10:01pm
...Max... (mail):
I get my free trade uptopia and I won't draft you into the army


without the military you don't have your state

Note that we have voluntary professional military force.

The nativist side of the immigration debate comes up short of arguments today.
4.2.2008 10:25pm
Employee_X:
There is no American technology worker shortage: I am a software QA worker with an advanced degree, certification, many years of experience and excellent references. 80% (my observation) of the jobs in my field have either been outsourced or are being filled by low-level immigrants here on H-1B/L1 visas. This week, I had a phone interview with a manager whose company is on a current list of employers who claim to not be able to fill the jobs. I had every skill they were looking for and the manager I interviewed with said as much. This is what he wanted: Software testing management experience, advanced project management experience, ability to write code, process improvement experience. At the end of the interview, I was told that he had a week's worth of phone interviews to do and then they would call in his best candidate and if they liked that candidate, they would offer him the job and that ideally, he hoped to find someone who had MORE coding experience that I. i.e., Even though this is a full menu of expectations for any worker, he had multiple candidates that fit the bill. Oh, and the job paid less than I was making five years ago and I have been out of work for so long, I was thrilled to actually get this far in the interview process. Does this sound like a worker shortage to you?
4.2.2008 10:26pm
Alcyoneus (mail):
without the military you don't have your state...Note that we have voluntary professional military force.

Oh brother. Libertarians are goddam fundamentalists. The state erects the apparatus in which the military volunteers operate. There's a rich history of nation-states that have attempted to use private armies exclusively. Thinkers from Polybius, to Machiavelli, to G. Washington, to Eisenhower have pondered the question with substantially similar conclusions. Private militaries suck for freedom.

Once again we see that to be a libertarian is to be stupid in practical matters.
4.2.2008 10:40pm
A. Zarkov (mail):

“You've got a deal. I get my free trade uptopia and I won't draft you into the army.”

What do you do when you can’t get enough volunteers to fight a war? Don’t you realize that we are living off our cultural capital? The reason we can get by with a volunteer army is the residual loyalty many people still feel for their country. Once you erode the nation state with its social cohesiveness, why would anyone volunteer for anything? Why should anyone even pay taxes to their government if it constantly works against them?
4.2.2008 11:43pm
David Chesler (mail) (www):
Patriotism doesn't even have to take the form of risking life and limb. It can be as simple as foregoing a short-term advantage for a strategic goal -- a very mild form of the Prisoner's Dilemma.

I've got a lot at stake in this issue -- it's in both my short- and long-term benefit that we keep a domestic engineering pool -- so I'll leave it to others to ask if a little more profit for Microsoft, and maybe lower consumer software prices, are worth discouraging a generation of America's best, brightest and most apt from entering engineering at all.
4.3.2008 8:24am
...Max... (mail):
worth discouraging a generation of America's best, brightest and most apt from entering engineering at all

Again, I will argue that they are "discouraged" by the combination of a lower barrier to entry and higher earning potential available in other walks of life compared to tech. And it may well be unfixable -- short of restructuring the society radically. Now, what if skilled immigration was not available (e.g. because other developed countries became sufficiently like US to make emigration from there less worthwhile)? I have no idea... but for the moment, growing demand in engineers has been enlarging the niches for tech salesmen, managers and entrepreneurs just as fast.
4.3.2008 10:13am
ed (mail) (www):
Hmmmm.

@ Max


Where? I have heard of exactly one example like this here in Texas -- back in 1998 or 1999, when anyone with the body above room temperature was considered a programmer. Not since then. The college in question was UT at Austin -- not exactly a diploma mill.


Dice

"Entry level software candidates"
Old Bridge, NJ
"$ 55 K to $ 70 K"
"Permanent opportunities, and Contract to Hire opportunities are available for Entry level and Junior programmers. Recent college grads, Green card holders, citizens,H1B visa holders willing to transfer, L2 visas , Canadian Residents, opts are all welcome.Learn from experts. Take your skills to the next level. Get trained in supplenmental softwares."

Took approximately 7 seconds to find.


A quick Dice search in my area reveals quite a few positions above $100K. I doubt 10+ years would be a requirement for most of them. Note that Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the least expensive large metro areas in the country.


Dice

5+ years experience = "85000-95000"

Dice

"North Dallas-based software company is seeking talented Senior .NET Developers with 6-10+ years' Microsoft-centric development experience, including A&D and current C#.NET 2.0."

"95000-110000"

...

Or if my example of "entry level" in NJ isn't good for you:

Dice: Dallas "entry level"

"Entry Level .NET Developers Find Your Home Here!"

"65000 - 75000"

...

*shrug* the simple fact is that wages in the software industry has stagnated along with the exporting of software jobs to India and, eventually, other countries. Another thing to keep in mind is that many "jobs" you'll see on sites like Dice.com aren't real. They're recruiters looking to update and expand their database or "pool" of potential developers. A larger and more extensive pool is more attractive to potential clients. Additionally out of 20+ advertisements there might actually only be 1 job. It's just 20+ recruiting firms or consulting firms advertising for that one position.
4.3.2008 10:26am
springjourney (mail):
You americans have no guts. You own government is humiliating you, flushing down the toilet taking all that you have earned by hard work. How many of you called you congressmen and inform them that you are against this H1B scam?
Why I, an immigrant have to stand up for you guys and send money to such organization like www.fairus.org and other.
Please wake up, call you sucking senators and tell them to stop that corruption.
4.3.2008 10:34am
ed (mail) (www):
Hmmmm.

@ DeezRightWingNutz


What did American citizens do to deserve an advantage? Or, conversely, what did foreigners do to deserve a disadvantage?


You completely missed the point.

My point is that there are almost NO advantages for an American citizen in America. Conversely there are almost NO disadvantages for a non-American citizen in America.

So what precise value is there in being, or acquiring, citizenship?


I guess I don't understand how/if the the following is supposed to generate sympathy:


It's called "discussing". Was there any request for sympathy? Anywhere?


...can't find a job (but not willing to relocate)...


Relocation isn't the be all and end all. If the economy is, shall I say, **GLOBAL** then relocating doesn't actually do anything. Does it?

Why is this? Because, in a **GLOBAL** economy, either these conditions exist everywhere, or soon will be.


...only a 30% (85k/65k - 1) increase in real wages after 10 years (that means average raises of inflation + 2.7%)...


And a lovely thing called ... inflation. Or rising taxes.

Or, as I pointed out, stagnant wages.

...

Frankly the only thing about outsourcing that keeps me happy are:

A. Most software developers I've encountered in outsourcing are complete idiots. Seriously deranged individuals who embody every bad habit I've ever seen.

My favorite: A whole Indian dev team disappears for 6 weeks without notice and then returns claiming that they were on a religious holiday.

B. Legal firms are beginning to outsource lawyers.

*smile* :)
4.3.2008 10:37am
ed (mail) (www):
Hmmmm.

@ Max


Again, I will argue that they are "discouraged" by the combination of a lower barrier to entry and higher earning potential available in other walks of life compared to tech.


Only problem though is that you cannot sell something unless you can build it. And if you have to rely on someone else to build it, then why do they need *you* to sell it?

The other question is this: In the 1990's our economy was going to be tech-based. This is an evolution from being manufacturing-based. So what precisely is our economy based on now? What do we sell to other countries?
4.3.2008 10:46am
...Max... (mail):
Only problem though is that you cannot sell something unless you can build it. And if you have to rely on someone else to build it, then why do they need *you* to sell it?

True. Which means that cutting off skilled immigration will contract the economy. Simple, no?

Honestly, I don't see where all gloom and doom comes from. Yes, tech is not nearly as hot as it was in pre-Y2K boom. Probably never will be again. It sucks -- for those of us (me included) who didn't IPO their startups at just the right time. But if you increase the pressure on tech compared to the present situation, it won't get any bigger. Yeah, deporting all H1Bs in a bunch TODAY is going to free up positions and SOME OF THEM will get filled by marginal out-of-work engineers. But the tech will inevitably contract here, in this country, in response to such a change.

I mean, this whole attitude is so misguided I don't even know where to begin. H1B is a path to immigration -- don't parse the legalese, look at the reality. So is F1 (student visa). This is one of the feeds for the tech workforce of America. It would be much better if the mechanism was more straightforward (as it used to be, according to the lore of immigration lawyers -- or at least that's what they told us many years ago to justify the increase in their fees) but cutting it off won't help anyone. Right now, if you're an American-born peer of a recently immigrated engineer, you have a big career advantage over him: language, social networks and culture. You'll be more mobile and shift into management easier (not universally true I know, but most companies are not predominantly staffed by immigrants from the same country, so American background tends to win). Cut off immigration, and you'll suddenly have more, not less competition.
4.3.2008 11:44am
ed (mail) (www):
Hmmmm

@ Max


True. Which means that cutting off skilled immigration will contract the economy. Simple, no?


Haven't you been reading *any* of the responses? There is no tech shortage whatsoever. Instead employers have been using H1B's as a means of depressing tech wages. Nothing else.

Seriously. What are you thinking?


Honestly, I don't see where all gloom and doom comes from.


Because the tech industry, like all high-tech industries, requires *experience*. Most of the junior positions are now in India. Which means that the following generations of programmers will be Indian. Period. Continue this and in 30 years there won't be an American tech industry.

And what use is it to cripple or destroy the American tech worker in order to import a foreign one? WTF kind of thinking is that?


Yes, tech is not nearly as hot as it was in pre-Y2K boom. Probably never will be again. It sucks -- for those of us (me included) who didn't IPO their startups at just the right time.


I'm not talking about "hot". I'm talking about American tech workers looking at the long term viability of tech in this country and figuring out that it's not worth it.

What advantage is it for this country to kill off it's domestic American tech industry in order to import a foreign one? How is that a good thing?


But if you increase the pressure on tech compared to the present situation, it won't get any bigger. Yeah, deporting all H1Bs in a bunch TODAY is going to free up positions and SOME OF THEM will get filled by marginal out-of-work engineers.


Who is talking about "marginal out-of-work engineers"?

Many of the people out of work are experienced.


But the tech will inevitably contract here, in this country, in response to such a change.


That is BS.


Right now, if you're an American-born peer of a recently immigrated engineer, you have a big career advantage over him: language, social networks and culture.


Here's a clue: In many areas of the country an English-only speaking American cannot get into construction because all of the local construction teams speak only Spanish. I.e. this supposed "advantage" only exists because of American dominance in the tech field.

Another example: In the field of forest firefighting there are any teams that only speak Spanish. Experienced veteran firefighting team leaders without Spanish skills were fired last year.

If however India becomes the dominant country then English will not necessarily be the dominant language used by tech workers and American culture will not necessarily be the dominant culture.

If the majority of veteran tech workers speak Hindu, then why program in English?

Well?

And if all new computer tech is done in Hindu, then where is this supposed advantage?


You'll be more mobile and shift into management easier (not universally true I know, but most companies are not predominantly staffed by immigrants from the same country, so American background tends to win).


Yeah 'cause middle management types are so hard to replace.

Here's a question for you:

If all the developers are Indian then why should they hire a American to manage them?

You know they outsource that stuff to. Don't you?


H1B is a path to immigration -- don't parse the legalese, look at the reality. So is F1 (student visa)


Another point where you're wrong.

You need 3+ continuous years of H1B to *apply* for a green card. That is to enter into the long and protracted process of getting a green card.

Most, if not all, companies will NOT employ you past 3 years if you're a contractor or a consultant. This is due to the Microsoft lawsuit. Due to the lawsuit companies regularly force contractors off the payroll at precisely the 3 year mark so they aren't liable for benefits.

So it's very routine to hire a contractor H1B for 3 years and then cut him loose. Then either the H1B gets another sponsoring company, for another 3 year run, or he gets to go home.
4.3.2008 3:19pm
...Max... (mail):
Ed, I will just say that I am a software engineer with 20+ years of experience and a former H1B (now naturalized US citizen) and I find some of your forceful assertions ridiculous on their face and others to be overly wide generalizations. You basically don't seem to know what you're talking about, on most points. I can tell you that I am well aware of realistic scenarios where a combination of misguided corporate policy and near-fraudulent consulting firms leads to replacement of [productive] Americans with [mostly non-productive] imported or offshore consultants -- you have described or hinted at none of them. I can't seriously respond to any suggestions for improving the situation from someone who demonstrates such a weak grasp of the subject matter.
4.3.2008 7:33pm
David Chesler (mail) (www):
Ed: Only problem though is that you cannot sell something unless you can build it. And if you have to rely on someone else to build it, then why do they need *you* to sell it?

Max responds: True. Which means that cutting off skilled immigration will contract the economy. Simple, no?

Not that simple, because it's not the case, yet, that we have to rely on someone else to build it. There is a large reserve of unemployed and underemployed engineers.

Max: Honestly, I don't see where all gloom and doom comes from. Yes, tech is not nearly as hot as it was in pre-Y2K boom. Probably never will be again. It sucks -- for those of us (me included) who didn't IPO their startups at just the right time.

I wish I'd been a dot.com millionaire (just as I wish I'd gone in investment banking, or even law) but my plan was never to get rich, it was to have steady, skilled employment.

Max: But if you increase the pressure on tech compared to the present situation, it won't get any bigger. Yeah, deporting all H1Bs in a bunch TODAY is going to free up positions and SOME OF THEM will get filled by marginal out-of-work engineers.

There are plenty of good engineers who are also unemployed or underemployed. You've seen my resume and my salary expectations off-line.

Max: But the tech will inevitably contract here, in this country, in response to such a change.

This is where we strongly disagree.

If the current policies were truly inducing the world's best and brightest to become Americans, then it might be the case that we have more innovators and thus more jobs and more opportunities. That is not the case, as Ben said, though you've shut him off for not making the right arguments.

Some H1-B holders will go the Permanent Residency path. (I'm confused about your personal anecdote -- I thought H1-B as such dates only from 1990.) How many are actually becoming legal immigrants?

Most will go home and take their knowledge and experience with them.

In WWII, by agreement, the US build bombers, and the Great Britain built fighters. The infrastructure for building bombers can be used for building passenger jets. The infrastructure for building fighters can be used for building canoes. Is Great Britain better off because the rising tide, that raised all boats, allows them to travel in Boeing aircraft? Sure, but wouldn't they be even better off if they were building and selling the planes? Today the situation is reversed, where the US is laying the groundwork to destroy that productive domestic infrastructure, and move technology offshore.

I've seen the worst of "body shop" software -- this isn't innovation, this is almost mechanical mass customization, economically feasible only because of low labor costs.

You are correct that there is a relatively low barrier to entry in non-tech. (It depends which non-tech. A middle-aged engineer -- and that's where many of us are finding that it's a lot harder to get a new job, or continuing increased compensation -- isn't in a good position to do the same internships as a recent graduate. In my 10th month of unemployment, in early 2002, I spent a month getting certified to drive a school bus, because I figured that if things were going to go totally to crap I could support my family better as a trucker than as a burger flipper.)

The problem is the high barrier to entry to technology. If students don't put in the hard work for an engineering degree, if they don't put learn the general skills, habits, and conventions as junior engineers, then there won't be a pool of domestic tech workers nor will there be, from among them, the innovators who create brand new ideas.

The Bronx HS of Science gots its new building the year Sputnik was launched. There was significant support for domestic engineering during the Cold War. (One result is that we were better able to attract some of their best and brightest, who have gone on to do things like form blawgs, or argue the wrong sides of issues therein.) I don't think the way to revitalize the American tech industry is something else impractical but visible -- after bragging rights, the first order benefits of landing a man on the moon were Tang and Velcro :-) -- but certainly the massive support for engineering, basic engineering in the form of research and development, in those years helped the fuel the high tech boom that followed. (Setting aside that we're still smarting from the the bursting of the dot.com bubble, we've gotten a lot more technology over the course of a generation.)
4.4.2008 8:53am
...Max... (mail):
There are plenty of good engineers who are also unemployed or underemployed

Sorry, "marginal" was used as an economical term, not as an insult.

How many are actually becoming legal immigrants? Most will go home and take their knowledge and experience with them.

I don't have the hard data; my personal experience tells me the majority finds a way to stay.

I've hand both firsthand (as an employer/manager/architect - you don't choose your hats in a startup :-)) and secondhand (through close friends) experience with offshore development. It cannot be a feasible replacement for in-house tech. I suspect its heyday is passing already; even corporate types are bound to count their beans sometime and think twice. If there was "an offshore development ETF" I'd go buy puts on it. Bigger question is whether the tech market share may go to entirely foreign companies. Again, drawing the best engineers from THEIR resource pool should be shifting the balance in the right direction.

Everyone's opinion is, of course, strongly colored by the personal experiences; this discussion may be ultimately futile (ain't all of them?). The only reason I got drawn into this one is what I saw as misrepresentation of facts related to the nature of the H1B program and its beneficiaries.
4.4.2008 3:29pm