Recent developments in North Carolina Polls.--
A Rasmussen tracking poll on Monday in North Carolina found Obama had a 14% lead over Clinton. A Tuesday NC poll by Insider Advantage found a 2% lead for Clinton.
Despite all that has happened this week, I doubt that both of these polls are right. But things are probably quite fluid in NC.
Given how far behind Clinton is in the delegate count, I think that she must beat Obama in both NC and Indiana to have a non-trivial chance of winning the nomination.
Seriously, has everyone forgotten the caveats the pundits and pollsters were tossing out back in January, that primary polling is notoriously volatile and unreliable?
Obama WILL be the nominee. For the simple fact that he WILL have the majority of both the popular vote and the elected delegate count. The Dem power structure simply DOES NOT DARE ignore that, take it away from the black man, and hand it to the white woman. There would be riots in the streets of Denver ( even more than are already planned ), and the black and youth and left-wing votes would stay home enmass in November, and the Democrat party would take 20 years or more to recover. They know this, and they are not that stupid. Better to cut their losses, take a loss this time around, and still exist to try again in 2012.
At the same time, the Wright stuff is TANKING Obama in EVERY demographic, but it CAN NOT hurt him enough to not go into Denver on top, as above. So, he will be wheeled into the General election, drooling about 'change' and wondering why he only polls 10 % or more behind McCain.
The funny thing is, they can't even blame it on the Republicans, or Whitey. They did it all to themselves.
In other words, she's not going to win the nomination and I think she knows that. She's not an idiot.
The only answer I see to explain her is that she KNOWS this is her one and only shot, ever, she's blown over $ 100,000,000 so far on it, and she's not going to let it go until they drag it from her cold politically dead fingers in Denver.
The Clintons are well known for their avaricious lust for power, and their complete disregard for 'rules'.
Until Denver, Hillary will spend every moment of every day praying for another Rev. Wright, or maybe for Obama to turn up in Spitzer's callgirl's book, or a fatal car accident, or ANYTHING that helps coronate her, which she deeply believes is her destiny, her entitlement, and her right. She can not conceive, in her heart, of LOSING her one and only chance.
I think you are.
You doubt that both Obama and Clinton are leading one another by 14% and 2%, respectively? Clearly nothing gets by you.
I don't follow all this as closely as the many liberal Democrats here, but I've heard that Clinton is already ahead in the overall popular vote and that this lead is likely to increase.
Only if you include the votes from Florida and Michigan. Including Florida is fair enough, but Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan.
Drooling? Isn't that verb more apt for the septuagenarian who can't keep the Sunni and Shia straight, babbles on about staying in Iraq for the next three generations (wait, that's not what I meant, it'll be like South Korea, honest!), and thinks a summer-long tax holiday solves high gas prices?
At any rate, even with Obama being hit from every angle, how come he's tied with McCain at the RCP GE polling average? Could it be... no one truly cares about Wright, Ayers, or any of these other non-issues? Nah, that wouldn't fit with the passion of those who want to keep the "Obama is a Muslim Hitler" meme going: SURELY every American must give a crap about lapel pins, right?!
I would suggest having some popcorn ready, just in case :-) I can see it now - Hillary pulling on one arm, Bill on the other, and Rev Wright saying 'Go for it, white folk, he diss'd me !' :-)
Hillary knows that time heals wounds. Given another 4 years of Republican executive lots of democrats will be willing to forgive and forget. She would be the best chance to beat McCain; nothing else matters.
So if Obama's campaign implodes--and it will take a "live boy or a dead girl" type event to make that happen--Hillary will be there to pick up the pieces. McCain is as weak a Republican candidate as Bob Dole. It would be crazy for her to voluntarily drop out. She'll stay in just in case Obama wakes up dead one morning. I'm not suggesting that she knows something, but........
How do you manage to pull off being an elitist and a Volvo owner?
In that case, no need to be hysterical, right?
So why does the Wright/Obama story have legs? I would submit it is not a guilt by association issue; rather, it is a guage of Obama's judgment (as is his associations with Rezko and Ayers). Should Obama get the nomination, you will, I suspect, see a whole lot more of the Wright sermons.
I think you are.
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Point. Good, I was sort of hoping I was missing something. :-)
Gore wasn't too keen on getting hearty support from the Clintons either, and did a fair bit of work keeping them at arms reach away from his campaign. It's generally well known that Gore didn't exactly appreciate Hillary's role in the White House or Bill's more base proclivities, and thus calling the Gore-Clinton relationship strained is quite apt.