[Jim Lindgren, May 6, 2008 at 7:06pm] Trackbacks
Clinton leads in exit Polls in Indiana.--

Although Fox News is not calling the Indiana primary, in exit polls Clinton leads by 7% among Democrats, a bit less among Republicans crossing over. She polls behind Obama 49% to 51% among Independents. [Overall, Clinton leads 52% to 48% in the exit polls.]

If the polls are accurate, it sounds like a 3-10% win in Indiana for Clinton, perhaps more if there is a Bradley Effect.

With 5% of the Indiana votes counted, Clinton leads 59% to 41%.

UPDATE: At about 8:10pm ET, CBS called Indiana for Clinton.

2d UPDATE, 11:30pm ET: I recently returned from the Becker-Posner rational choice workshop at Chicago. So far only CBS has called it for Clinton. And Lake County near Chicago seems to be holding back its votes. It could go either way.

3d UPDATE, 12am ET: Things are beginning to look like they are trending toward Obama in Indiana, but it's too soon to tell.

Oren:
It's interesting to see cross-over Rs breaking harder for Obama than Ds. Is this part of Rush's "chaos" plan, or do they genuinely prefer him?

Also of note, the relative disparity in how many Obama supporters will vote Clinton in the general (60%) versus how many Clinton supports will vote Obama (45%). So much for party unity (although the GOP isn't exemplar in that category this year either, so maybe it's a wash).
5.6.2008 8:24pm
Oren:
Link to the exit polls to which I referred.
5.6.2008 8:29pm
SIG357:
The distance between them remains less than the number of delegates in Fl and MI. Hard to see how the "Count every vote" Dems can keep those states out.
5.6.2008 9:21pm
SIG357:
The Democrats can't allows rigid adherence to the letter of the law to control their decision. Justice and fairness demand that the people of Florida and Michigan have their voices heard.
5.6.2008 9:47pm
Malvolio:
Justice and fairness demand that the people of Florida and Michigan have their voices heard.
Uh, why? I mean, they knew the rules when they made their decisions. Why shouldn't they be held to the consequences.
The Democrats can't allows rigid adherence to the letter of the law to control their decision.
Yeah, why should they start now?
5.6.2008 10:43pm
ScottS (mail):
Faux outrage alert.

Yes, Hillary has no chance without shenanigans that will destroy the party and with it any chance she might have in the general. Even if she is too blinded by the heat of the fight to see that, most of the rest of the party does, and the superdelegates will continue to tip over to Obama tomorrow.
5.6.2008 11:01pm
arbitraryaardvark (mail) (www):
Currently it looks like 52%-48%, with 85% counted. Clinton's lead has been narrowing all night, and that trend might continue as votes trickle in including provisional ballots.
So Clinton wins, but not by enough to matter. What will the delegate numbers be?
5.7.2008 12:19am
GV:
Actually, even with Michigan and Florida in, Obama is still ahead in both delegates and popular vote.
5.7.2008 12:58am
Gaius Marius:
Looks like it's time for Hillary Clinton to exercise the "Nuclear Option."
5.7.2008 1:48am