1:12am ET UPDATE: Hillary Clinton has won Indiana by over 22,000 votes with all counties reporting.

12:50am ET UPDATE: This is the same model I used to predict that George Allen's lead over Jim Webb would disappear on election night 2006, long before the TV stations reached the same conclusion.

12:40am ET UPDATE: With 95% reporting, Clinton leads by less than 17,000 votes. If the remaining precincts break in the same way as the existing precincts in those counties (and Michael Barone suggests they won't), Obama would pick up 18,400 votes (not including over ten thousand uncounted absentee ballots), leading to a 1,770 vote victory for Obama. This analysis includes Hamilton, Hancock, Lake, Marion, and Monroe Counties, but excludes Union County, which has not yet reported.

After midnight ET, Barack Obama is closing the gap. If the missing precincts follow the rest of the precincts in their counties, Obama will win.

Obama has conceded to Clinton and Clinton has claimed victory, but all this may be premature.