The Volokh Conspiracy

EPA's Chooses Ethanol Over Sound Environmental Policy:

Last week, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) denied Texas' request for a temporary reprieve from federal ethanol mandates.

Under the energy law signed late last year, 9 billion gallons of ethanol and biodiesel must be blended into gasoline between Sept. 1, 2008, and Aug. 31, 2009, to meet a national Renewable Fuels Standard. Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) sought to reduce that to 4.5 billion gallons, on the grounds that the mandate is hurting livestock producers and increasing food costs.
In denying the request, the EPA explained that it did not believe the mandate was having too great an impact on food and fuel prices, and that whatever costs the mandate imposed were outweighed by the mandate's benefit. The ethanol mandate "is strengthening our nation's energy security and supporting Americans' farming communities," Administrator Stephen Johnson explained. Funny thing, I thought the EPA's job was environmental protection, not subsidizing farmers or promoting something as nebulous as "energy security." The mandate cannot be justified on environmental grounds, however, as the ethanol mandate does more harm than good.

Texas Governor Rick Perry is none too happy with the EPA's decision. He writes in today's WSJ:

the diversion of our corn supply from grocery stores to gasoline pumps has caused the price of corn to spiral out of control. Corn prices were once driven by market forces. Today they are artificially driven up by a government mandate. In 2004, before the mandates were imposed, the cost of corn hovered around $2 per bushel. Now it is close to $8 per bushel.

This is driving up the cost of staple food items at the grocery store. And it is also driving up the price of corn-based feed, devastating the livestock industry to the point that Texas cattle feeders have been operating in the red since 2007. . . . .

Denying Texas's request is a mistake that will continue to force families to bear a heavier financial burden to put food on the table than necessary and harm the livestock industry.

Supporters of the ethanol mandate have their hearts in the right place if they want to diversify this nation's fuel supply. But artificially propping up an industry to the detriment of the vast majority of Americans is bad policy. And that's what this mandate does.

This is hardly the EPA's first bad, anti-environmental effort to prop up the ethanol industry. During the Clinton Administration, the agency sought to impose a de facto ethanol mandate in the guise of a "renewable oxygenate" standard under the Clean Air Act. The problem was, the Clean Air Act did not provide the agency to impose such a requirement -- and a good thing too, as the mandate would have done more environmental harm than good.

The Clinton Administration's effort could be ascribed to the ethano-philia common among D.C. politicians who hope to curry support in the farm belt and bolster their reelection efforts. But the Bush EPA has no such an excuse. No crass political motive appears to explain the Agency's decision. Rather, it seems, the Bush EPA actually believes in this bad policy.

EH (mail):
I prefer to think of this decision as The Corn Lobby vs. The Sierra Club. There's a great article in last week's New Yorker about politics and policy being all about competing special interests and that "for the people" is a hoax. Or words to that effect. ;)
8.12.2008 7:47pm
Craig Oren (mail):
Jon, could you cite us to more info about the Clinton administration's oxygenate mandate? I don't remember it the same way you do, but I wouldn't be surprised to be proven wrong.
8.12.2008 8:03pm
Jonathan H. Adler (mail) (www):
Craig --

I wrote about the mandate in this piece about rent-seeking in environmental policy. Here is what I said then:
The administration proposed rewriting environmental regulations to guarantee ethanol producers 30 percent of the oxygenate market for reformulated gasoline, which had been mandated in nine cities under the 1990 amendments.

The 30 percent share was proposed, in EPA administrator Carol Browner’s words, to "create additional markets for ethanol and ETBE [an ethanol derivative]." According to Browner, "The EPA’s proposal would help farmers by boosting the demand for ethanol and ETBE while protecting the environment." The EPA estimated that the rule "could increase the production and use of ethanol by as much as 60 percent over current levels." Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy crowed, "One of my top priorities is improving farm income and this initiative will do just that."

Guaranteeing a market for ethanol would come at a significant cost. The EPA estimated that the direct cost to consumers would be $48 million annually. Petroleum industry analyses put the annual price tag at $350 million. Because ethanol is exempt from most fuel taxes at both the state and federal level (a rent-seeking story in itself), the ethanol mandate also would have reduced government revenues. Analysts predicted that the Federal Highway Trust Fund, which is used for highway maintenance and construction, would lose as much as $340 million per year in revenues from the federal gas tax.

There are few things upon which the Sierra Club and the American Petroleum Institute agree, but both agree that the EPA’s proposal was bad for consumers, producers, and environmental protection. "This proposal is illegal and it’s bad policy," A. Blakeman Early, then of the Sierra Club, told the National Journal. In Early’s view, "It’s not the role of the Clean Air Act to make mandatory markets for ethanol." It is clear, however, that some of the law’s authors felt otherwise.

Eager to paint the ethanol giveaway green, the EPA claimed that the proposal would reduce greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand, and foreign-oil consumption. However, a report published by Resources for the Future cast serious doubts on the EPA’s claims, concluding that there are "unsubsidized, lower-cost, domestically produced [oxygenates that can] produce environmental benefits indistinguishable from those [of ethanol]." A Department of Energy (DOE) study went further, concluding that the proposal would increase energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The DOE sought to include this analysis in the rule-making docket while the proposal was under consideration, but the EPA objected.

Eventually the federal judiciary stepped in, after the American Petroleum Institute filed suit. In April 1995, the D.C. Circuit Court ruled that the Clinton administration did not have the authority to propose the policy in the first place. The court held, "The sole purpose of the RFG program is to reduce air pollution, which it does through specific performance standards for reducing VOCs and toxics emissions. [The] EPA admits that the [ethanol rule] will not give additional emission reductions for VOCs or toxics . . . and has even conceded that the use of ethanol might possibly make air quality worse." No matter how important the ethanol lobby, the court declared, the Clinton administration did not have the statutory authority to subsidize it through environmental regulations.
The D.C. Circuit's decision invalidating the mandate is here.

JHA
8.12.2008 8:55pm
Craig Oren (mail):
Thanks, Jon, for jogging my memory about this. It's been suggested to me that the entire requirement in the 1990 Act for oxygenated gasoline was nothing more than a giveaway to Archer Daniel and its allies.
8.12.2008 10:27pm
Curt Fischer:

It's been suggested to me that the entire requirement in the 1990 Act for oxygenated gasoline was nothing more than a giveaway to Archer Daniel and its allies.


Going by excerpt from Prof. Adler's Cato essay, I could agree that "30%" of the 1990 act was intended to be a giveaway to ethanol producers...but it didn't work.

MTBE
, derived purely from petrochemicals, was the oxygenate of choice until the early 2000s.
8.13.2008 6:47am
cboldt (mail):
-- It's been suggested to me that the entire requirement in the 1990 Act for oxygenated gasoline was nothing more than a giveaway to Archer Daniel and its allies. --
.
Or Conoco, which successfully lobbied for MTBE as the oxegenate.
8.13.2008 8:53am
cathyf:
In 2004, before the mandates were imposed, the cost of corn hovered around $2 per bushel. Now it is close to $8 per bushel.
Anyone who believes that corn prices can return to $2/bushel as long as diesel is $4.50/gallon is delusional. Sure, livestock producers would get a one-time windfall if the ethanol mandate were removed unexpectedly and there was a sudden oversupply of corn. But corn producers, like producers of anything, can't afford to sell stuff for less than it costs to produce it. And corn gets planted every year, so the entire supply gets readjusted according to market conditions every year.

No, simple economics means that if there is no more ethanol for fuel, the cropland dedicated to producing the ethanol must simply be taken out of production until the supply is reduced to the point that it drives up the price to where the farmers can make money. Now taking cropland out of production may be a good thing in and of itself, but it's not going to get you $2/bushel corn...
8.13.2008 11:55am
Thomas_Holsinger:
Professor Adler,

I disagree. The Bush admnistration and its agencies believe in the status quo, whatever that is. Energy is something this administration has always lacked. Pun intended
"Rather, it seems, the Bush EPA actually believes in this bad policy."
8.13.2008 12:49pm
REL (mail):
Cathyf,
Are you attempting to use an approx. 100%-150% increase in the input of a product to justify an 400% increase in the cost of said product?
8.13.2008 5:12pm
Randolph:
Gov. Perry claims that "the mandate is hurting livestock producers and increasing food costs" but it's the cost of oil (the same oil on which his state made it's fortune) that is driving the costs of everything higher. In fact, it's the inclusion of ethanol in gas that is keeping the costs consumers pay at the pump from being any higher.
8.13.2008 6:07pm
Tatil:
I know it does not invalidate your argument at all, but in the end, it probably would be better if that Ethanol mandate actually happened, as MTBE turned out to be very hard to prevent from leaking from tanks at the gas stations into the underground water sources. Hence, they now switched to Ethanol, at least in California.
8.13.2008 6:56pm
Fiftycal (mail):
Ethanol takes about as much energy to produce as it delivers. The waste left behind is not suitable for animal feed. Ethanol is a false economy driven by politics and AMD, not reality. And THIS YEAR 1.2 TRILLION POUNDS of corn will go to ethanol "conversion". Enough grain to feed everyone on the planet will be wasted to placate the neo-enviros.
8.13.2008 8:16pm
Jonathan H. Adler (mail) (www):
For those interested in the history of the oxygenate requirements in the 1990 Clean Air Act, I wrote a fairly extensive treatment of this in: "Clean Fuels, Dirty Air," in ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICS: PUBLIC COSTS, PRIVATE REWARDS (M. Greve and F. Smith, eds., 1992).

JHA
8.13.2008 9:21pm
Sk (mail):
Why do you characterize this as "the EPA's first bad, anti-environmental effort to prop up the ethanol industry"? From what I can read of the article, the mandate was a law (presumably passed by congress) that EPA refused to overrule.

In other words, it was a congressional effort. EPA simply neglected to overrule congress. I agree that it may be bad law, and I agree that we would be better without it, but I don't think EPA should be in the business of overrulling laws simply because I (or someone else) happens to disagree with it. Its not clearly an environmental issue that the EPA should be involved with, and its not clearly the case that the law causes more harm than good (and specifically more environmental harm than economic/policy/social good), so why should EPA be involved at all?

Or, again more simply: sometimes democracies pass bad laws. Everytime a bureaucracy neglects to overturn a law (even one that I dislike), the democrat in me smiles.

Sk
8.13.2008 9:21pm
TJIT (mail):
SK,

I believe the enabling legislation had a provision that allows the EPA to waive the mandate if it was having too much of a negative impact.
8.13.2008 9:29pm
TokyoTom (mail):
No crass political motive appears to explain the Agency's decision.


Jon, do you really think that the crass political motives that provide such firm support for ethanol end at the EPA?

Ethanol mandates are a giveaway to farm states, many "Red" states (don't forget Bob Dole's long leadership on ethanol). Here is a guess at ongoing "crass political motives": the Republicans already have Texas wrapped up for the fall elections, and are looking not to shoot themselves in the foot in other states with strong agricultural lobbies (especially as Obama clearly supports corporate welfare).
8.13.2008 11:39pm
Ryan Waxx (mail):
Cathyf, Randolf:

It is true that the governor does not cite other reasons that also contributed to the price increase. That is typical of political speeches.

However he did not claim that the subsidies were the only factor driving the cost increase... he stated that the subsidies happened, then the cost increase happened, implying that the subsidies were a cause of the increase. All of which are true.

You cannot disprove his claim merely by advancing an alternate explanation, especially if you don't bother to make a case that that alternate explanation accounts for the entire increase... and as other commenters have pointed out, your explanation does not account for even a majority of the increase.
8.15.2008 11:01am

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