Both Slate and the Washington Post have interesting new article summarizing recent social science research showing that voters tend to be highly biased in their evaluation of political information. Voters tend to overvalue the importance of new information that supports their preexisting views or makes their preferred party look good; and they tend to discount any information that cuts the other way. As the Slate article puts it:
This has nothing to do with ideology. Politics isn't about ideology. It's about joining a team, and we judge fairness as partisans. In 1951, Princeton and Dartmouth students watched a film of a football game and were asked to take note of foul play. Princeton stalwarts saw all the penalties that should have been called on the Dartmouth players. Dartmouth students were convinced the refs missed clips and offsides committed by the Princeton players.
We judge politics the same way—as team members, not truth-seekers. Last week the Washington Post reported on a slew of experiments showing that political misinformation feeds people's pre-existing beliefs.
These findings - and the sports analogy that goes with them - are not new. I summarized earlier findings of this type in a 2006 article in which I similarly compared political partisans to sports fans.
The interesting question is why voters behave like biased sports fans instead of trying to evaluate new political information in an unbiased way. After all, isn't politics far more important than sports, deserving of a more serious effort to get at the truth?
The answer I gave in the article is that political fans are similar to sports fans in so far as both have little or no incentive to be truth-seekers. Because there is little or no chance that your vote will be decisive in an election, voters whose only reason to acquire political information is to do a better job of choosing the "right" candidate tend to be "rationally ignorant." Those who do acquire political information are likely to do so for other reasons - reasons that have little to do with truth-seeking. Here's a brief relevant excerpt from the article (pp. 260-61):
[T]he theory of rational ignorance does not predict that voters will choose not to acquire any information at all. Rather it predicts that they will acquire very little or no information for purposes of voting However, some voters will acquire information for other reasons....
A useful analogy is to sports fans. Fans who acquire extensive knowledge of their favorite teams and players do not do so because they can thereby influence the outcome of games. They do it because it increases the enjoyment they get from rooting for their favorite teams. But if many of the citizens who acquire significant amounts of political knowledge do so primarily for reasons other than becoming a better voter, it is possible that they will acquire the knowledge that is of little use for voting, or will fail to use the knowledge they do have in the right way.
Here again, a sports analogy may be helpful. Committed Red Sox fans who passionately root against the Yankees are unlikely to evaluate the evidence about these teams objectively. The authors of one recent history of the Red Sox and Yankees note that they chose not to write “a fair and balanced look at the Red Sox-Yankees ‘rivalry,’” because “neither author of this book wanted to represent the Yankees [sic] point of view. . . . Neither of us could bring ourselves to say enough complimentary things about [the Yankees] to fill the back of a matchbox, let alone half a book” (Nowlin and Prime 2004, 4). . . Similarly, Democratic partisans who hate George W. Bush, and Republicans who reflexively support him against all criticism, might well want to acquire information in order to augment the experience of cheering on their preferred political “team.” If this is indeed their goal, neither group is likely to evaluate Bush’s performance in office objectively or accurately.
This intuition is confirmed by studies showing that people tend to use new information to reinforce their preexisting views on political issues, while discounting evidence that runs counter to them . . . Although some scholars view such bias as potentially irrational behavior . . . , it is perfectly rational if the goal is not to get at the “truth” of a given issue in order to be a better voter, but to enjoy the psychic benefits of being a political “fan.”
How do we get out of the dangerous box in which public policy is determined in elections where most voters are either rationally ignorant about even basic political information or highly biased in their evaluation of what they do know? There is no easy answer to that question. In the article linked above and in some of my other scholarship (e.g. - here), I suggest that we consider making fewer decisions through the political system and more through free markets and civil society - where people have much stronger incentives to both seek out information and evaluate it at least somewhat rationally.
All Related Posts (on one page) | Some Related Posts:
- Political Ignorance and the 2008 Election:
- Going Easy on "Deranged" Charges that Seem like Mere Exaggerations of a Deeper Truth:
- Political "Derangement" and Political Ignorance:...
- Russian Government Airs "Documentary" Promoting 9/11 Denialism:
- How Political Fans are Like Sports Fans - Why Voters are Highly Biased in their Evaluation of Political Information:
- Why Candidates and the Media Exploit Political Ignorance:...
- International Variation in Political Ignorance about the Perpetrators of the 9/11 Attacks:
- Do Voters Have a Moral Duty to Be Informed About Politics?
- Richard Shenkman on Stupidity and Political Ignorance:
Nothing in this post says anything positive about the Republicans - or any party for that matter. In addition, if I were somehow trying to make the Republican Party look good, I wouldn't have just devoted a whole series of posts to attacking the Republican administration's massive bailout plan.
Interpreting new information in a way that is favorable to the group probably increases group cohesion and increases the belonging-ness of the person doing the interpreting.
Being a truth-seeker is lonely...
Yeah, stupid Republicans and their socialist causes, getting government to force subprime lending in order to wipe out illusury usury.
For example, if one had a perfectly rational, well-understood interest in the correctness of a theory that one had repeatedly espoused, that meshed well with one's overall philosophy, and on which one had partially based one's career, mightn't one evaluate incoming neutral information as confirming one's theory, when in fact it did no such thing--just as if one were "rationally ignorant" and had chosen sides arbitrarily?
gotta be sarcasm.
"I suggest that we consider making fewer decisions through the political system and more through free markets and civil society - where people have much stronger incentives to both seek out information and evaluate it at least somewhat rationally."
a) I concur wholeheartedly.
b) How do I distinguish your suggestion from mere cheerleading for our (libertarian) team?
wow. not sarcasm. angry. bitter. aggressive. but no sarcasm. blows me away (though thats not saying much).
But the sports analogy fails. Citizens have an additional concern about politics.
Whether your team wins or loses means you get to be cheerful or morose when discussing the subject on Monday at work.
Citizens look at political issues with the knowledge that the outcome may have considerably more effect on them, considerably more, than whether they can gloat on Monday.
When Reagan was first elected president, our area voted for him. A UAW biggie was interviewed about the question. Well, he said, if it hadn't been for foreign policy, the economy, and crime, the union guys would have voted dem.
IOW, the lumpen you love to hate voted for their own interests as opposed to going with Their Kind.
Neither the first nor the last time.
That's one office among many in the election, yes? It's my experience that there are only a handful of candidates about which you know anything, so party lines are the best information to use. Sometimes someone's singled out for acting very unlike their party or for being vocal for the right things (certain local judges and state senators here come to mind), but that's rare.
What I mean to say is that it's very hard to be an informed voter, and even when you are you have little to rely on but voluntary associations (political parties) to act as stump blurbs.
More interesting to me are the cases where people switch their political team. How and when can non-conforming facts and ideas break through confirmation bias and make a person change their views?
Mainly it seems to be dramatic events (either personal or on the national stage) that cause a jump. Anecdotally, I'm aware of a lot of people who changed their political views and/or "team" after 9/11. Major life changes also seem to do it -- e.g. a lot of folks seem to switch sides when they leave school and start working full-time. Similarly, I've seen a number of seniors go from Republican to Democrat once they retired and became concerned about medical care.
Absent those dramatic events or major life changes, it seems there is nothing to "political thought" except pulling for the team.
Of course,the fact that journalists at the Washington Post, NYT, LAT, NBC, ABC, CBS, NPR, Time, Newsweek, etc. lean overwhelmingly to the left is not a problem and does not impact how they present the news because they are able to put their biases aside, unlike the rest of us.
I think this nails it, but I would go one step further. Being a truth-seeker is antisocial behavior. To seek the truth, one must challenge all assumptions, including those advocated by your social group. Anyone willing to engage in such an endeavor will find that many of the "facts" argued by his social group are not true and will have antagonized his social group for merely questioning those assumptions, even when the assumptions are ultimately confirmed.
Human beings may be truth seekers, even in politics. Its simply that it is impossible to get to the truth.
Hypothetical: President Bush announces a new policy in Iraq.
Fox News reports that its a good policy that will lead to peace.
CBS reports that its a hopeless attempt to save a hopeless situation.
Which one is 'true'? The politically active voter has no way of determining that. Reading alot, or watching alot of news, or whatever method you come up with will not expose the voter to 'right' answers (or, rather, answers that the voter knows are right). If I read 6 articles and watch 4 newshows about the same subject, and get a spread of opinions (say, 6 in favor of Bush, 4 opposed), do I now know the 'truth'? Of course not, because there is obviously a difference of opinion, even among experts, and besides, I as a viewer know that each of those 10 experts has his own personal bias that will affect his interpretation of the issue.
In short, I think you are discounting the fact that politics isn't math or logic, and the 'truth' in politics is often either unknown or impossible to determine.
Voters know that, and are thus, from an absolute-truth perspective, entirely justified in listening to what agrees with their preconceptions, while downplaying that which doesn't.
Sk
You see, people are just too ignorant to read conclusions of their own. They turn to "pundits" and "talking heads" and "bloggers" who mix opinions and ungood eventdata, and they just can't separate out what's going on. It's a good thing that reliable institutions like the Washington Post exist to feed the proles realfact.
I, alas, am like most people and don't seek the truth at all. I picked a side and just bask in the sample bias. This, of course, makes me super popular.
That's why I never trust anything I read - it's all biased lies!
I've solved so many confusing problems by rejecting the "em-ess-em."
The Princeton people saw real penalties, while the Dartmouth students were merely convinced that penalties occurred the other way. The writer must have been a Princeton alum (poor sap).
God, it's people like you that make facsists fabricate polls that indicate people have no critical thinking skills. Don't you know that the opinion page is written about thoughts, whereas the front page is about events? Obviously the opinion page has greater Truth because it is a first-hand account of first-hand thoughts.
From the OP:
This is a tautology. Politics is like sports because only the viewer can decide the True rightness, or "spin", of the situation (it's all very complicated, please read Einstein if you're interested in Quantum Moral Relativity). If what you see exists, then external bias is meaningless! Quod erat diddlyum.
So what evidence does the McCain campaign have for the supposed Obama-Raines connection? It is pretty flimsy, but it is not made up completely out of whole cloth. McCain spokesman Brian Rogers points to three items in the Washington Post in July and August. It turns out that the three items (including an editorial) all rely on the same single conversation, between Raines and a Washington Post business reporter, Anita Huslin, who wrote a profile of the discredited Fannie Mae boss that appeared July 16. The profile reported that Raines, who retired from Fannie Mae four years ago, had "taken calls from Barack Obama's presidential campaign seeking his advice on mortgage and housing policy matters."
So the Washington Post is saying you can't believe McCain's ad because it is based on reporting in . . . the Washington Post. The Washington Post is not a reliable source of information, according to the Washington Post.
Which pretty much describes a basic tenet (or two) of conservatism. Good luck, because there is a major political party with a communist-socialist philosophy that has been pushing in the opposite direction for 80 years or more. Today we call them liberal-progressives. Semantics is a wonderful thing.
Yes but what do most of us do to effect that outcome? Our one vote barely makes a difference, which I think is the underlying point. If I wanted to bring about what I think is the best course of action I wouldn't simply think about things and vote, I'd join an organization or try to convince others.
(Any by trying to convince others I don't mean shouting at work how half the country are "stupid" and "morons" like my boss does).
It takes a rare person to parse and question their own side. For instance, I LOVE Sarah Palin. But I would still sleep easier with a paternity test for Trig, proving she's the mother. I think she is. I want her to be. But I would just like even better to have proof.
If I went to a Town Hall meeting or local political discussion group every week, or had to vote on something significant every month or so, I'd end up learning things that otherwise I would not be exposed to, or feel that I have any choice in the matter.
I vote, among other things, because a million guys died to preserve that right.
I vote because nobody can tell me that my effort is so small I shouldn't be making it.
I vote because I may have an effect.
And this discussion does not exclude other activities.
I have always thought that witch hunts and belief in witches is laughably stupid. When I read that Sarah Palin's pastor has engaged in actual witch hunts in Africa, I immediately assumed the was crazy as a lavatory mouse.
Then when I saw the video of Sarah Palin standing in front of her church while her pastor prayed to protect her from witches, I then immediately assumed she, too, was unqualified to hold any position of responsibility.
I will try to be more open minded about witches.
"Of course,the fact that journalists at the Washington Post, NYT, LAT, NBC, ABC, CBS, NPR, Time, Newsweek, etc. lean overwhelmingly to the left is not a problem and does not impact how they present the news because they are able to put their biases aside, unlike the rest of us."
I wonder if these studies challenge that assertion somehow. The alleged bias may be a result of the refusal to recognize facts and become more entrenched in one's beliefs. Support the war? Then, certainly, any stories about violence in Iraq shows liberal media bias and enforces one's support. Oppose the surge? Then stories reporting decreased violence entrench one's belief that ethnic cleansing, and not 30,000 additional US troops, was the cause.
I think this study goes to reader bias, not reporter bias.
Like I said, it's not the newspapers that are "wrong", it's that you see enemies everywhere. Phlebitis is sure to follow.
Similarly, when newspapers report government officials' criminal conduct, it isn't that they never mention when the party affiliation is Democrat, it's just that Democrats are usually liberal and liberals are just good people. Why bring down the name of the Party when goodfact is just as not ungood?
That may or may not be a better analogy to the political situation. The insignificance of individual votes isn't the only factor in rational ignorance. Group membership increases political power, and has many benefits - it helps rent-seeking, the existing support base makes it easier to enact policies, etc. So the sports analogy isn't exact (few analogies are; that's why they're analogies). But it does serve to illustrate the power of bias, which (though not new) is certainly a relevant point.
I would guess that even people who bet on sports are not completely unbiased, but they probably use a different filter.
Yours,
Wince
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but it's not an either/or issue. Like media consumers, journalists are likely to value and interpret information based upon whether or not it reinforces their existing beliefs. The problem arises when those journalists largely share those same beliefs.
And, when pressed, insist those are the Right beliefs. Foolish to question them.