[David Kopel, November 3, 2008 at 6:59pm] Trackbacks
Bloggers' Predictions for Tomorrow, and Analysis of the Role of Blogging in 2008:

National Journal assembled 46 leading bloggers from the Left and the Right to predict the results of the presidential election, as well as some other key races. The results are sorted by Left and Right. To the extent that one might view negative predictions as a Declaration Against Interest, there are the following interesting results: The majority of Left bloggers think Obama will lose Montana. The majority of Right bloggers think McCain will lose Pennsylvania; that Republicans John Sununu (N.H.) and Elizabeth Dole (N.C.) will be defeated for re-election; and the Democrat Beverly Perdue will be elected Governor of North Carolina.

The various bloggers also offer their comments on the role that blogs played in the 2008 election cycle, and some guesses about the biggest surprise on election night.

Dave N (mail):
I note that Mr. Kopel is one of the bloggers from the right who were included. I am wondering how the various bloggers were chosen by the National Journal but it was still an interesting side-by-side comparison.
11.3.2008 8:06pm
SSFC (www):
Without regard to the Inside Baseball stuff of which blogger was chosen and how, if Perdue wins in North Carolina, it won't be because she's a woman, or a Democrat, or new registrants.

It will be because Duke political science professor Mike Munger has run a remarkably strong campaign as a Libertarian, siphoning off votes from Charlotte's mayor Pat McCrory, who is far better qualified than Perdue on the merits. Generally, "sane" is the mark of a good Libertarian candidate, but if Munger was on the ticket for a major party, he'd win hands down.
11.3.2008 8:43pm
Asher (mail):
SSFC, I go to Duke and Munger's a very bright and congenial guy. But I had no idea he was winning many votes. If it weren't for the fact that he parks his car next to the library entrance and covers it with Munger for Governor bumper stickers, I don't think most people here would've known he was running.

And I just hope Kopel wasn't one of the dim bulbs in the survey of right-wing bloggers who said McCain would win. 41% who think he'll win! A real testament to how dense the conservative blogosphere has become (or maybe always was).
11.3.2008 9:22pm
OrinKerr:
Dave N,

The national journal asked the blog if we wanted to participate, and Eugene queried the co-bloggers: I think David K was the first (and maybe the only) to express interest.
11.4.2008 12:37am
wolfefan (mail):
It was interesting to see someone taking credit for breaking the Obama fake birth certificate story...why one would want to take credit for such a thing is beyond me.

Dave, if you're reading comments, you said "Much of MSM have been even barely even attempted serious coverage of issues and candidates' backgrounds. Many blogs, including the Volokh Conspiracy, done the job that the MSM hasn't: careful analysis of policy proposals of the various candidates, and examination of candidates' backgrounds, network of connections, and fundraising practices." I agree that so much of the MSM has been worthless horserace coverage, which will skew against McCain as he has been so far behind for so long and ran an incoherent campaign for quite some time before finding his voice. What I wonder is what sites you think have done a good job with analysis of both candidates policy proposals, connections, etc. Here at Volokh the examination has been almost all of Obama - are there sites that have examined McCain in as much detail that you would recommend?
11.4.2008 12:38am
Steve P. (mail):
wolfefan - That lady that claims to have broken the "fake birth certificate" story also believes that Obama's really Malcom X's love child. Don't get too close, the crazy might rub off.
11.4.2008 12:59pm