Two and a Half Thoughts About the Auto Bailout

1. Bankruptcy judge functions go to the executive. A standard feature of crisis governance, executive power rises at the expense of other branches of government—Congress and, here, the judiciary. Why give more power to the executive? A crisis is a political problem; judges lack both political expertise and democratic legitimacy. They don’t know what to do, and wouldn’t be trusted in any event. In bankruptcy, parties have an interest in creating a firm that has maximum going concern value; relative bargaining power determines how the losses are divided. But the bankruptcy judge has little power to crack the whip, and value can be squandered as parties bluff and bargain. The only case for the executive-managed reorganization is that the executive can draw on carrots and sticks to hurry the parties along, favoring those who are cooperative and penalizing those who are not. This is the positive spin on Todd’s complaint that bankruptcy is “politicized.” Bankruptcy law is one-size-fits-all and not necessarily appropriate for current conditions. Can an executive branch car-czar with broad powers function more effectively than a bankruptcy judge with limited powers? Depends who they are. If not –

2. Bankruptcy law remains the backdrop (maybe!). Managers, workers, suppliers, dealers know that if they can’t reach a deal, they end up in bankruptcy. If they are rational and can overcome bargaining costs, they should simply divide the monetary equivalent of the government’s free loan (not the loan itself, but the financial equivalent of being able to stay in business an extra couple months when the market would otherwise shut them down) prior to the hard work of reorganizing the companies.

2 1/2. Bankruptcy remains the backdrop (maybe not!). Alternatively, the players might predict that the Obama administration will maintain the federal pap—whatever interest group dynamics that compel bailout today will compel bailout tomorrow. The car industry will become a long-term Amtrak-like federal vehicle for transferring resources to politically influential, geographically concentrated people—mostly middle class or wealthy.

Monty:
The executive has a really big carrot that it can divide up, but what exactly is the stick? As far as I can tell the only punishment available is to not bail someone out... while certainly that is a big bargaining chip, not giving someone a bunch of taxpayer money is hardly a stick...

Am I missing some other stick?
12.20.2008 12:02pm
some dude:
In the meantime, NOBODY can make any rational decisions regarding the auto industry. Competitors, customers, parts suppliers--even banks. The free market is on hold. It isn't about entrepreneurs forecasting the future of how the auto industry is going to plan out and make appropriate business decisions that will make them money, it is about second guessing the central planners in a gamble that may or may not make investors any money, depending on the whims of a few people.

Grrr.
12.20.2008 12:19pm
Randy R. (mail):
Regarding this bailout, one of the terms is that the workers' pay must be in line with other auto makers. This is really extraordinary -- using tax payer dollars to suppress wages?

Okay. I suppose an argument can be made. So why isn't it across the board, to include managers all the way up to the top? The managers in Japanese and German car companies don't make nearly the amount these bloated executives do. Why isn't their pay also tied to foriegn industry standards?

And for that matter, why arne't the salaries of all the wall street execs tied to foreign industry standards either? If foreign companies are now the gold standard for pay, then it should be for everyone, not just the blue collar workers.
12.20.2008 12:42pm
Michael F. Martin (mail) (www):
There is a very good chance that GM and Chrysler will end up in bankruptcy in 2009. This deal is "bankruptcy-lite" for them -- it just gives them a little additional time to improve their position.

The good news is that Ford was not lumped in with them. At least the Bush team got that right.
12.20.2008 12:56pm
Allan Walstad (mail):

A crisis is a political problem; judges lack both political expertise and democratic legitimacy.

The bankruptcy of a private firm is a legal problem. Judges possess legal expertise and Constitutional legitimacy. A crisis is what we get into when we allow pervasive government meddling in and disruption of markets.

But the bankruptcy judge has little power to crack the whip, and value can be squandered as parties bluff and bargain.

Fruitless bluffing is exactly what the recent political machinations, in DC, regarding Detroit, have been about.

I'm still wondering what the purported Constitutional basis is for the feds to take money from people all around the country to prop up failing private firms.
12.20.2008 1:03pm
Johnny Canuck (mail):
the principal justifiction for the bailout seems to be that if one of the big three goes down it will pull suppliers down as well, causing chaos and probable collapse for the other two (and maybe even disrupting the foreign owned). Why doesn't the govt direct that the money it is injecting be used to pay out part suppliers, at least to the extent necessary so that they will not collapse. Wouldn't this have the effect of making it possible to allow the weakest of the big three - or the one that prepares the poorest restructuring plan to be liquidated without causing the whole house of cards to fall. If the interestholders in each of the big three were to recognize that if they don't make significant concessions their company may be the one o collapse, I would think they would strive much harder to make concessions and participate in devising a more viable plan. What am i missing?
12.20.2008 1:06pm
John (mail):
There is only one way to solve this problem, and that is to align the workers' interests with those of the companies. All that is needed is to replace the UAW pension assets with stock in GM and Chrysler, and stand back.
12.20.2008 1:15pm
nmh (mail):
I quite liked Mark Cuban's idea here:

1.. The bankruptcy court puts the designs of all parts, patents and technology of all big 3 cars into the public domain so no one ever has to worry about getting their car fixed. Someone will always be able to build parts or systems for all makes and models. In fact, making the designs open source could possibly lead to better parts, car designs and repair solutions.

2. The bankruptcy court assigns to their boards someone who has a clue about how to cut costs and manufacture in a cut throat environment. Michael Dell and Andy Grove come to mind.

3. The court creates a warranty fund, much like the FDIC, where every car sold has some dollar amount go into the fund to pay for warranty service for a maximum of up to 3 years. In the event the Big 3 cant survive out of bankruptcy, repairs on the cars for models sold while the companies are in bankruptcy become a tax credit, with the treasury being reimbursed for these repairs from the fund. (btw, I hate to do something using tax credits, so if anyone else has a better suggestion on how to deal with and pay for warranties..)
12.20.2008 1:41pm
Guest12345:
Regarding this bailout, one of the terms is that the workers' pay must be in line with other auto makers. This is really extraordinary -- using tax payer dollars to suppress wages?


Um, no. No one is suppressing wages. If nothing is done, i.e. no bail out, then the expected salaries for a good portion of these union workers is going to be $0.00/yr. The unions are being given the option of $0.00/yr (which is the amount that they are entitled to) or 75% as a handout. If someone comes begging for food, they don't get to ask for prime rib, they get what they get and, if they aren't complete ingrates, they're thankful for it.
12.20.2008 2:11pm
Jon Lubin (mail):
"Bankruptcy law is one-size-fits-all and not necessarily appropriate for current conditions."

This makes me wonder whether you took your law school's basic bankruptcy course. I did -- and though I was second semester 3L at the time -- I recall a completely different understanding of the code. Bankruptcy law is mushy. Outcomes are determined on a case-by-case application of broad equitable principles and powers, which are hardly "limited" under any normal usage of the word.
12.20.2008 2:19pm
MartyA:
It's a scam!! The car czar will be appointed by the politicians owned by the unions. The UAW will give up NOTHING! They may postpone some things, they may rename some things, but they'll give up NOTHING.
Remember Congress! If someone wanted to increase pork next year by 12% and Congress only goes up 4% then, that is a net savings of 8%. The UAW will calculate the same way. GM &F will talk reductions while signing sidebar agreements that will raise total labor costs, knowing that when they come back in May they'll get as much as they ask for.
This, BTW, is the terrible model for public unions. An aggressive union negotiating with a passive partner who, for various reasons, can't take a hard line, e.g., strike, inevitably caves to union extortion. Labor gains and achievements become so embarrassing that worker gains are no longer primary and the union's institutional demands take over.
Check Mexico where almost every CBA includes a management contribution to the union building fund.
This is bad but will get a lot worse.
12.20.2008 2:25pm
LM (mail):

The car industry will become a long-term Amtrak-like federal vehicle for transferring resources to politically influential, geographically concentrated people—mostly middle class or wealthy.

... as opposed to the financial industry bailout?
12.20.2008 3:29pm
Dan Weber (www):
If they are rational and can overcome bargaining costs, they should simply divide the monetary equivalent of the government’s free loan (not the loan itself, but the financial equivalent of being able to stay in business an extra couple months when the market would otherwise shut them down) prior to the hard work of reorganizing the companies.
Maybe. The bondholders are really driving a hard bargain. PIMCO alone could probably queer the deal. They are trying to capture about 99% of the "bailout surplus."

Who can threaten the deal the most? If one party demands 99% of the surplus or else, do we give it to them? What if two parties each 99% of the surplus?
12.20.2008 4:23pm
p. rich (mail) (www):
Isn't the fundamental purpose of bankruptcy to shield a business from its creditors while it institutes changes designed to get the business back onto a viable footing? Is that even remotely possible in this situation, where the Detroit auto companies have been in an unstable and constantly deteriorating state for the last 25 years or so? What if the fundamental business model is flawed, or market conditions have changed in such a way that the companies cannot become profitable (ignoring government subsidies for the moment)?

It seems to me that first it should be determined whether any of the "Big-but-decrepit-and shrinking 3" can be resurrected as legitimate businesses, or if liquidation is the only viable business (as opposed to liberal social) answer. Then debate bankruptcy/recovery terms and conditions.
12.20.2008 5:29pm
LM (mail):

It seems to me that first it should be determined whether any of the "Big-but-decrepit-and shrinking 3" can be resurrected as legitimate businesses, or if liquidation is the only viable business (as opposed to liberal social) answer.

Who does that, and how?
12.20.2008 5:40pm
p. rich (mail) (www):
LM

First someone has to raise the issue rather than assume a particular outcome is possible. Then the subsequent questions indeed becomes "who" and "how". I would submit the answer is not "government" and it may be "receiver appointed by a bankruptcy judge".

Actually, I think one of the classic takeover guys like Kirk Kerkorian who built a fortune by envisioning the future, evaluating investments and pushing for maximizing market value might have the right kind of knowledge and skills. He's probably too old now, though there are others like him, but I somehow doubt such a person would ever be appointed. They would probably be judged inappropriate for lacking social conscience.
12.20.2008 6:50pm
Thomas_Holsinger:
I would modify Judge Posner's last sentence as follows:
"The car industry will become a long-term Amtrak-like federal vehicle for transferring resources to politically influential, geographically concentrated and generous people—mostly middle class or wealthy, who will share their government-provided income with deserving Democrats."

This is also known as a self-licking ice cream cone.
12.20.2008 7:11pm
RPT (mail):
I like this new Corker/DeMint/Shelby conservative idea of government having the power to disregard employment contracts so as to limit the compensation of employees. Does it apply to white collar employees and management as well?
12.20.2008 7:52pm
luxurytwist:
What I've read about the terms of the bailout say that limits on executive compensation are part of the deal, and that unions "will be asked to rework contracts". IOW, workers might not give up anything, but the executives people here are complaining will get off scot-free are not. Is that understanding incorrect?
12.20.2008 8:35pm
einhverfr (mail) (www):
Personally, I think it would be better to let the auto companies file bankrupcy. However, let's be frank about the costs both paths.

The fact of the matter is that the uncertainty over whether the auto companies are going to file bankruptcy kills consumer confidence. I watch it happen with airlines, etc. and see no reason that cars would be any different. Filing for bankrupcy *would* temporarily hurt sales. However, sales would recover after, and some sales may be merely delayed to see what happens (i.e. delayed rather than lost sales).

As bad as that is, I think it is worse to simply bail out the companies when times get tough. This sort of thing leads to reckless business management IMO, and may cause problems down the road. I don't think the auto companies are likely to fail at the moment. However, I do think that they will go through some tough times.
12.20.2008 9:24pm
einhverfr (mail) (www):
luxurytwist:

Limits on executive compensation are one thing, but if this is like the wall street bailout, we will probably have no substantive measures to ensure that this is not happening.
12.20.2008 9:25pm
LM (mail):

As bad as that is, I think it is worse to simply bail out the companies when times get tough. This sort of thing leads to reckless business management IMO, and may cause problems down the road.

In ordinary times, or even rough times in an ordinary cycle, I'd agree. But what's at stake here is more than just the failure of the auto industry, its suppliers, dealers, etc., which alone would be cause for concern. Now the risk is that such failure would exacerbate the crises of credit market and consumer confidence we're trying to corral to head off a full blown economic disaster.
12.20.2008 10:39pm
Bruce Hayden (mail) (www):
I like this new Corker/DeMint/Shelby conservative idea of government having the power to disregard employment contracts so as to limit the compensation of employees. Does it apply to white collar employees and management as well?
For the most part, they don't have employment contracts in the first place. Sure, top management does, but typically not down below that. And the top management with employment contracts are likely to get hit worse (on a percentage basis, ignoring work rule changes) than rank and file union members do.

Why should the unions be asked for this (or have it crammed down their throats)? Because their contracts are much of what make U.S. cars uneconomical. Absent bailouts AND reform of the union agreements, bankruptcy is inevitable, and then they will have much less power than they will with an incoming Democratic Administration with strong Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. Before then, any Big 3 "bailouts" will effectively be U.S. taxpayers subsidizing early retirement benefits and uneconomic work rules of union and retired union workers.
12.21.2008 12:29am
Aleks:
Re: All that is needed is to replace the UAW pension assets with stock in GM and Chrysler, and stand back.

If that idea worked then all those Wall Street banks where the executives are rewarded with tons of stock, would be in great shape.

Re: any Big 3 "bailouts" will effectively be U.S. taxpayers subsidizing early retirement benefits

If the any of car companies go under the taxpayers will be doing that anyway via the pension guarantee fund-- which may well need a bailout itself then. So we can either have a bailout where there's a chance we'll get the money back with interest (that's happened before) or we can incur huge welfare costs for unemployed (and perhaps unemployable) workers and retirees, which we have no chance of getting back.
12.21.2008 7:33pm
Thorley Winston (mail) (www):
Re: any Big 3 "bailouts" will effectively be U.S. taxpayers subsidizing early retirement benefits

If the any of car companies go under the taxpayers will be doing that anyway via the pension guarantee fund-- which may well need a bailout itself then. So we can either have a bailout where there's a chance we'll get the money back with interest (that's happened before) or we can incur huge welfare costs for unemployed (and perhaps unemployable) workers and retirees, which we have no chance of getting back.
12.22.2008 12:00pm
Thorley Winston (mail) (www):
Re: any Big 3 "bailouts" will effectively be U.S. taxpayers subsidizing early retirement benefits

If the any of car companies go under the taxpayers will be doing that anyway via the pension guarantee fund-- which may well need a bailout itself then. So we can either have a bailout where there's a chance we'll get the money back with interest (that's happened before) or we can incur huge welfare costs for unemployed (and perhaps unemployable) workers and retirees, which we have no chance of getting back.


I suspect that if there is a bailout for the auto industry, it will be followed by additional bailouts and will have the effect of only delaying not preventing the collapse of GM, Chrysler and Ford. In which case, federal taxpayers would end up paying for both the cost of the bailout(s) and welfare benefits.

Also, even if the bailout is in the form of a “loan,” given that the Obama administration has other priorities such as promoting “green technology,” allowing the States to regulate CO2 with a minimum of opposition, and federal control over health insurance, I suspect that we might see a significant portion of the principal as well as the interest being “forgiven” in exchange for the D3 acceding to the Obama administration’s priorities.

Finally as far as the aforementioned welfare benefits go, the D3 retirees who are eligible are no doubt already receiving Medicare and Social Security benefits. In which case a bailout for their pension and health care benefits would not reduce their draw on the public treasury, it would only supplement it. As far as the other D3 retirees who aren’t yet old enough for Medicare and Social Security, they would most likely be receiving Medicaid and unemployment insurance which I suspect are cheaper than the cost of the defined benefit pensions and health benefits and in addition, at least a portion of the expense would be paid for by Michigan rather than federal taxpayers. The same would likely be true for current D3 employees, at least some of whom would go back to work (albeit at lower wages and benefits) and others who would probably lose their jobs anyway when the D3 do their necessary restructuring.

In short, it would probably be cheaper to let the D3 go into Chapter 11 and make the necessary restructuring than multiple bailouts which would only postpone rather than prevent that restructuring while forcing federal taxpayers to in effect pay twice.
12.22.2008 12:51pm
Thomas_Holsinger:
Thorley,

Cheaper is not better for Democratic incumbents, because that would deny them an on-going subsidy to grateful recipients who would generously share with deserving Democratic incubments.
12.22.2008 1:42pm
LM (mail):
Thomas_Holsinger:

Cheaper is not better for Democratic incumbents, because that would deny them an on-going subsidy to grateful recipients who would generously share with deserving Democratic incubments.

Yeah. I hear the Democrats engineered the whole financial collapse just to create a pretext for lining the pockets of Al Sharpton and Barbara Streisand with a couple of trillion dollars of taxpayer-funded graft.
12.22.2008 5:09pm
Thomas_Holsinger:
LM,

Tell us how many elections Sharpton and Streisand have won. Especially compared to Senator Christopher Dodd and Congressman Barney Frank.
12.22.2008 9:32pm
A Conservative Teacher (mail) (www):
I was just flipping through the Constitution and the TARP act- where again did the President get the legal power to bail out the auto companies?
12.23.2008 10:52am
David Schwartz (mail):
In ordinary times, or even rough times in an ordinary cycle, I'd agree. But what's at stake here is more than just the failure of the auto industry, its suppliers, dealers, etc., which alone would be cause for concern. Now the risk is that such failure would exacerbate the crises of credit market and consumer confidence we're trying to corral to head off a full blown economic disaster.
I think the reality is precisely the reverse. Government bailouts just add additional uncertainty in the market. And they destroy the possibility of new, efficient business opportunities that would fill the void the dying dinosaurs leave behind.

To some extent, there is a fixed pool of resources out there. Talent, at a minimum, is a fixed resource for the medium term. Bailouts divert more and more of those resources to inefficient uses.

We got into this mess just like we got into the tech mess and other messes before it. The financial sector diverted more and more resources into inefficient uses. The solution (even for the short term) is to stop doing that. The lesson to learn is to never do that again.
12.26.2008 5:29am
klimmklimm (mail) (www):
Perfect work!
Gluttony kills more men than the sword.
Good health is above wealth

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9.20.2009 8:20am
petrarka (mail) (www):
Perfect work!
9.24.2009 9:34am
petrarka (mail) (www):
Perfect work!
9.24.2009 9:34am
petrarka (mail) (www):
Perfect work!
9.24.2009 9:34am
petrarka (mail) (www):
Perfect work!
9.24.2009 9:34am

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