Current Views that May be Seen as Unconscionable in the Future:

Co-blogger Orin Kerr asks: "What are the ideas or practices that are uncontroversial and widely accepted today — and that you personally find unobjectionable — that you think might be seen as barbaric or immoral one hundred years from now?"

As Orin correctly notes, we can all easily identify issues where we dissent from current majority opinion but hope to be vindicated in the future. Much more interesting is the attempt to consider whether posterity is likely to condemn widely held views that we agree with. I actually devoted a post to this very issue back in 2007, identifying three issues on which I think there is a significant chance that current majority views that I agree with will be repudiated by posterity: my support for the death penalty, my opposition to animal rights, and (somewhat less likely) my opposition to government-imposed forced labor relabeled as "national service." For interested readers, here are some of the implications I drew from my analysis, which I still think are largely correct:

I am unmoved in my opposition to forced labor. If this practice is legitimated in the future through the process I predict [clever demagoguery by activists and self-interested politicians], its increasing acceptance will say little about its rightness. I am less certain about the death penalty. On balance, I am still for it, but the fact that so many others are turning against it despite the lack of a clear self-interested or other biased reason for doing so does give me some pause. Finally, if I had to pick one of these issues where I am least confident in the validity of my present view, I would have to say animal rights. Even more so than with the death penalty, it is hard to provide an explanation for the increase in support for this moral view that is unrelated to its potential validity. Moreover, unlike in the other two cases, I have to acknowledge that my position is at least in part the result of a strong self-interested bias of my own: I like to eat meat, and I can't think of a logically consistent defense of animal rights that doesn't entail the conclusion that meat-eating is immoral . . . I'm not ready to endorse animal rights (at least not yet), but I have to acknowledge the possibility that my love of cheeseburgers is undermining my love of truth on this issue.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Current Views that May be Seen as Unconscionable in the Future:
  2. What Uncontroversial and Widely Accepted Ideas Today Will Seem Outrageous or Immoral 100 Years From Now?:
wt (www):
Affirmative action is the obvious one. Governments have a history of treating people differently on the basis of their race, and then later being condemned for that disparate treatment.
1.7.2009 3:16am
ralph:
Why is it morally acceptable to eat the ground-up reproductive organs of entities who could possibly be sentient, but whose sentience you cannot determine because you cannot communicate with them? Or maybe just because your definition of sentience is not the same as theirs?

I speak, of course, of plants.
1.7.2009 5:02am
Frater Plotter:
Here's one: "Catching" a man (or a child-support check) by getting pregnant.

The advent of a male birth-control pill will effectively eradicate this. The "firing blanks" pill will be rejected by some religious groups, but our society privileges the male sex drive so strongly (think Viagra) that it will be rapidly accepted into the mainstream.

Before long, it will be regarded as barbaric that a woman might ever have seduced a man in order to impregnate herself and thereby oblige him to support her.
1.7.2009 5:24am
Rich Rostrom (mail):
As I suggested elsewhere, ideas that are already controversial should be excluded: e.g. the death penalty, meat-eating, conscription.

Here's one that may touch the area of this blog: jury trials, and indeed the general structure of criminal jurisprudence. A society with, say, reliable "truth meters" and ubiquitous cyber-monitoring of all activity (an inevitable byproduct of the computerization of everything), would look on our system as intolerably crude and inaccurate.

Fossil fuel consumption is almost certainly going to be obsolete in a hundred years.
1.7.2009 6:01am
Howardddd (mail):
It's presumptuous to think you can anticipate what conventional wisdom will be 100 years from now.

Perhaps we will have transcended Darwinism/reductionism and universally accepted the notion of an all-powerful being that is the grounding of all reality.

Or perhaps genetics and neurophysiology will dismantle the notion of the individual altogether.

It is reasonable to think that the conventional wisdom is changing much faster than previously. So that the change from 2008 to 2108 will be more like comparing today to 1708 or 1608.
1.7.2009 6:34am
Tom Perkins (mail):

Fossil fuel consumption is almost certainly going to be obsolete in a hundred years.


But I do look forward to the SCA sponsored car shows.

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, &pfpp
1.7.2009 6:50am
Joshua:
Rich Rostrom: Here's one that may touch the area of this blog: jury trials, and indeed the general structure of criminal jurisprudence.

Here's another one: The notion of free will and personal responsibility having any place in the law or public policy. Already there are scientists such as Eric Kandel who claim that "free will" is an illusion and/or a social construct.
1.7.2009 8:43am
James of England:
Frater, do you really find impregnating oneself for child support unobjectionable, or believe that it is uncontroversial today? No doubt child support will become a radically different animal over the next century as vestigial notions of income inequality and family structures lose their hold, but I think that this is a widely condemned practice even today.

Sadly, I suspect that a desire for privacy may be amongst those things to die. There is very little privacy amongst many stone age tribes, suggesting that it is not biologically hard-wired into us, and it seems likely that technology will record and monitor more and more of our lives. As remaining outside the loop enacts an ever greater convenience cost on others, and as terrorists and criminals become ever more empowered (along with the rest of us), "hiding something" seems likely to be increasingly distrusted.

As an example of this, there was a recent commercial for Visa that showed everything working smoothly in a store, with a swift moving series of lines paying by visa that was suddenly ground to a halt by someone fiddling with loose change. One of the awkward points for the ad was that visa is often slower to pay with than a bank note. As proximity payment systems, already in place for a minority of transactions, become more common, it really will be much quicker to pay by card. Add rfid-like checkout of the products sold and you should be able to pay by walking out of the store with your stuff (probably with a few decades of needing to check your receipt for mistakes). When payment by cash becomes a rare and unusual thing, it'll be really annoying for the store.

There's also numerous environmental benefits that can come from monitoring where you are and what you're doing and powering systems, heating, and such smartly to efficiently deliver only the services you want. Smart cars should provide safety for their drivers, but also for others. There are countless ways in which we can improve life for others by giving up our privacy in a manner that also makes life easier for us. Even before considering security and law enforcement (privacy invasion for its own sake), my sense is that we're headed back to the stone age in terms of privacy. Rousseau might find the coming technological utopia surprisingly close to his ideal.
1.7.2009 8:54am
Aeon J. Skoble (mail):
Gratuitous remakes of classic films?
1.7.2009 9:06am
JoelP:
It is possible that unsolicited compliments will be seen as crude mind control, clumsy attempts to subvert my right to my own self-image for your personal gain.

Of course, a lot can happen in 100 years.
1.7.2009 9:09am
Houston Lawyer:
Imprisonment for failure to make child support payments.

Illegality of any type of drug for consumption by adults.

Laws against bigamy.

Laws against prostitution.

Not an endorsement, but a prediction.
1.7.2009 9:12am
bearing (mail) (www):
How "uncontroversial" does it have to be?

Various means of disciplining one's child come to mind. Spanking is illegal in a few European countries IIRC. Perhaps someday it'll also be barbaric and immoral to put them in time out, or to insist they eat the dinner they're served or else go hungry till breakfast.
1.7.2009 9:12am
Awesome-O:
Here's another one: The notion of free will and personal responsibility having any place in the law or public policy. Already there are scientists such as Eric Kandel who claim that "free will" is an illusion and/or a social construct.

Remember, the topic here is which current beliefs/practices will be deemed "unconscionable" in the future. Free will might fall from favor, but if there's no free will, then it's impossible to make any sort of value judgment about morality, and concepts such as "unconscionable" will be just as antiquated as the concept of free will.

Oh, and i don't know who Kandel is, but the idea that man lacks free will is one that's been around for thousands of years.
1.7.2009 9:21am
A.C.:
I predict that some of the technologies we now consider cutting-edge will go the way of streetcars and gaslights. Don't know which ones or what will replace them, but consider all the science fiction stories from the 50s about computers becoming bigger and more centralized. They never saw the PC coming, much less the PDA.

I do think the whole idea of video games has reached a point of saturation and has nowhere to go but down. The games themselves will continue to get better, but the inherent limit on spending your time that way seems to have been reached. The whole phenomenon may turn out to have been a fad, like dance marathons or roller blading.

I would LIKE for the notion of naturalistic make-up for women to become unthinkable. I don't mind stage make-up for people assuming different roles, and I have no problem with people of all ages and sexes painting designs on their faces (or other exposed skin)for fun, but where did we get the notion that adult women (and only adult women) have to do something artificial to their faces just to look acceptable at the office or grocery store? It's warped.

Equally warped is clothing that cannot be washed in water. I say this sitting here in my dry-clean-only lawyer suit, wondering whether the solvents ever get it really clean.
1.7.2009 9:25am
PubliusFL:
Finally, if I had to pick one of these issues where I am least confident in the validity of my present view, I would have to say animal rights. Even more so than with the death penalty, it is hard to provide an explanation for the increase in support for this moral view that is unrelated to its potential validity.

Increasing anthromorphism of animals via animated movies and TV shows? That would also explain the small but growing movement in support of toaster rights which began sometime in the late '80s.
1.7.2009 9:27am
ed (mail) (www):
Hmmm.

Prisons.

IMO the idea of putting people into prisons where they have to be fed, kept clean, guarded and tended to for every minute they are in a prison, and at enormous financial cost, is a bit silly.

Included in this is the idea that prisons are often more or less criminal universities and areas of gang recruitment and it's clear that prisons are far more trouble than they are worth.

Instead we will probably revert to the era before prisons where jails were merely used to hold prisoners until trial.

Future punishments will likely be: fines, physical punishment, permanent exile or death.
1.7.2009 9:33am
DiversityHire:
I do think the whole idea of video games has reached a point of saturation and has nowhere to go but down.

The video part will be subsumed, but eventually most of what we live will be more like gaming than anything else we're currently doing.

I would LIKE for the notion of naturalistic make-up for women to become unthinkable.

Yeah, me too. But I'm guessing make-up will be integrated as active, in-person enhancements under the conscious control of the individual.
1.7.2009 9:39am
Archon (mail):
White people, limited government, and hard work.
1.7.2009 10:01am
A.C.:
Doesn't anyone else think we might de-tech certain areas of life and go back to basics? This might occur because of economic or energy disruptions, but it could also be a social trend. I've given up most of my kitchen gadgets and gone back to a good old chopping knife, mostly because I think it works better.

A trend back to natural materials and live, in person behavior is at least as likely (in my opinion) as applying more and more technology to areas it hasn't penetrated yet.
1.7.2009 10:02am
Conrad Bibby (mail):
One that apparently hasn't been mentioned is assigning "personhood" to robots. The idea of treating robots as people entitled to rights strikes (normal) people today as ludicrous. However, when AI advances to the point where robots are capable of independent, creative thought and expression, ethicists will advocate treating them as people entitled to "human" rights. And why not? Since "enlightened" people don't believe human beings have a "soul," and reject the existence of a divine creator, what will be the argument for denying "personhood" to beings having all the essential characteristics of a human being (other than, you know, bigotry)?
1.7.2009 10:29am
Conrad Bibby (mail):
As a more general comment, this exercise sort of skips the middle step of figuring out societal values 100 or so years into the future. Are we becoming more individualistic or more tribalistic? Are we becoming more rational or more superstitious? Are we becoming more altruistic or more hedonistic? Are some portions of society moving in one direction while other portions are moving in the other? Tell me you've figured these things out, then come meet me in Vegas.
1.7.2009 10:43am
Rich B. (mail):
There are obvious imbalances and "unfairness" in various voting structures that I have no particular objection to, but I imagine I couldn't actually defend against a coordinated argument from opponents. For example:

A. The prohibition on children under 18 voting. Is it any wonder that schools are underfunded when those who most benefit are denied the franchise?

B. Indonesia and India having the same voting power as Mongolia and Greece in the United Nations.

C. District gerrymandering. What we think of as "gamesmanship," as it becomes perfected by computers, will likely become seen as unseemly.

D. The United States Senate.

E. Congressional Districts are varying populations based upon the prohibition of crossing state lines to draw districts.
1.7.2009 10:48am
Zubon (www):
As a reminder, the question was explicitly not things that you disagree with. What do you and the majority currently believe that may be seen as unconscionable? JoelP's example is good. Disagreeing with Rich Rostrom, I think that meat eating is a good example, because the vast majority of the Western world would not call it "unconscionable." If you are a vegetarian for moral reasons, you still freely associate with omnivores in a way that you would not with cannibals, rapists, Klansmen, or people who talk in the theater.

A.C., how about we take that in the other direction: in 100 years, men will be expected to be painted and perfumed as much as women? We may not go back to powdered wigs, but there is an increasing market for manscaping. In an era of inexpensive cosmetic body modification, going about unenhanced could be like going about unshaven and disheveled today.
1.7.2009 10:51am
George Smith:
If we take Professor Cook's post above and substitute Professor Somin's cheeseburgers for alcohol.............
1.7.2009 10:58am
Charlie (Colorado) (mail):
How about the presumption that this year's moral biases can be applied a century previously?
1.7.2009 11:00am
A.C.:
Painting and perfume were big back in an era when hygiene and health were hard to come by. If we place more emphasis on cleanliness and staying healthy, doesn't it make sense that we would want to show off the result rather than covering it up?

This changes if the enhancement is undetectable on close viewing, which current make-up is not.

But any real high-tech advancement like that will probably be for the elite and not the masses. We're still trying to figure out how to afford health care at current technology levels, before we even talk about cosmetic procedures that don't yet exist. Are we talking about elites-only changes here, or will things have to penetrate all of society to qualify? Ordinary make-up and perfume are available at all social levels now.
1.7.2009 11:01am
trad and anon (mail):
Oh, and i don't know who Kandel is, but the idea that man lacks free will is one that's been around for thousands of years.
Sure. People have even being arguing that it's inconsistent with "science" for hundreds of years, though the rationale underlying this claim has changed.
1.7.2009 11:07am
Semper Why (mail):
Keeping the in line with the idea of "widely accepted ideas" that will be considered immoral in the future... I'm going to have to go with the entire concept of "commerce".

In the far flung future where technology has removed any shortage of what we would now consider to be commercial goods, there will be no need to "sell" goods. If you want a widget, you tell your synthesizer to generate one from the stored pattern. It gets synthesized immediately using dirt and fusion for raw materials and power.

In a world with no material need, the concept of withholding any sort of material goods from another person until you receive some other good in exchange... it would be considered unnecessarily cruel and barbaric. It doesn't cost you anything to produce it, what right do you have to hang on to it? I can certainly imagine a world where such a practice as "selling" would be seen as immoral.
1.7.2009 11:17am
BT:
While I realize that this is a bit off topic, my prediction for 2109 is that the Chicago Cubs will be celebrating their 200th year without winning a World Series.
1.7.2009 11:31am
DangerMouse:
I think that our social condemnation of incest will eventually be seen as unconscionable. Even now, many people argue that the only thing necessary for sexual relations is consent. The rigidity of their logic will eventually demand that incest be accepted.

The same thing will happen with underage sexual relations as well.
1.7.2009 11:36am
Liberal Libertarian:
Neckties.
1.7.2009 11:39am
Brian Mac:
Spending the bulk of your time at work posting inane blog comments?
1.7.2009 11:39am
wfjag:

I think that our social condemnation of incest will eventually be seen as unconscionable. Even now, many people argue that the only thing necessary for sexual relations is consent. The rigidity of their logic will eventually demand that incest be accepted.

And, so, a standard question on the Domestic Relations part of Bar Exams will become: "Betty Jo and Johnny Mac received their final divorce decree. Are they still brother and sister?" (or "Mom and son?")
1.7.2009 11:46am
trad and anon (mail):
Some of our sexual norms will be seen as appalling, no doubt. They're always changing, after all. But which ones? There may well be a move toward a new form of puritanism. There's no reason sexual norms must always move in the direction of greater libertinism. (And they haven't; at some points the 19th century it would have been regarded as completely unexceptional for a married man to openly have a mistress and bring her to parties, but today he is expected to hide it.)
I predict that some of the technologies we now consider cutting-edge will go the way of streetcars and gaslights. Don't know which ones or what will replace them, but consider all the science fiction stories from the 50s about computers becoming bigger and more centralized. They never saw the PC coming, much less the PDA.
And yet they computers they predicted tend to be much less powerful, and do a lot less stuff, than the ones we have today. Who predicted the computer as a way of playing music? The major exceptions are humanlike natural language processing and AI, which are staples of science fiction but still have a long way to go.
1.7.2009 11:46am
PubliusFL:
Zubon: In an era of inexpensive cosmetic body modification, going about unenhanced could be like going about unshaven and disheveled today.

Unshaven and disheveled seems to be the in thing these days. I remember watching a Taco Bell commercial last night and thinking "what is that bum doing spending his hard-earned panhandling money on a Crunchwrap Supreme instead of saving up for a bottle of Thunderbird?"
1.7.2009 11:51am
trad and anon (mail):
Neckties.
The necktie will definitely go. The business suit has been slowly falling out of fashion as a form of business dress over the past fifty years. First the vest disappeared, and over the past fifty years the number of industries in which the suit is standard has been steadily decreasing. The vest is completely dead. More and more workplaces have been moving towards business casual as a standard form of business dress. Casual Fridays are the norm even in the (few) industries in which people still wear suits on a daily basis. Wearing a matching blazer and pants without a tie has also become more common for men; note also that women in suits typically do not wear ties at all.

The jacket may of course return as standard a form of business dress, especially if restrictions on energy use cause people to turn the heat down in winter. But there's no reason for the necktie to stay around.
1.7.2009 12:00pm
gattsuru (mail) (www):
Social taboos on 'multitasking' -- talking to someone while using the internet, for example -- will go away, probably within the next fifteen years. Individuals with cell phones have already eroded the social taboo on conversing in a crowd (often painfully so) almost as a viral result of owning a cell phone. Technology making omnipresent internet connections, light-weight devices, and small but useful interfaces will repeat the process with most other oft-used process. Removing yourself from these connections will become frightening or perceived as a sign of instability, similar to those individuals that go hermit into the Alaskan wilderness. The idea of being disconnected will become increasingly unpleasant or even taboo within forty.

I think our resistance to biochemical and biological modification will be viewed as outdated if not barbaric within sixty years. Chemicals like modafinil are its successors will suggest that viable human enhancement drugs with minimal negative side effects and little risk of addiction can exist. The results won't be pretty, but that's probably life.
1.7.2009 12:18pm
cjwynes (mail):
When it comes to the question of "animal rights", sentience alone is either not morally considerable, or merits only the most minimal consideration. Dr Richard Hanley proposed an idea which I find attractive, that the real threshold question is whether an animal has future-oriented mental states. If an animal has no hopes, dreams, ambitions, or fears about the future, then no real harm is done by killing it. Its sentience alone might justify not inflicting pain upon it, because that is a something it can feel in the present as it happens, but a painless death takes nothing away from it about which it was truly concerned.

Behavioural evidence of animals possessing such mental states is scarce, and limited to a very few species such as dogs, dolphins and monkeys. Therefore you have no need to worry about eating a chicken or cow, unless you happen to know that the company you bought it from tortures its animals and you don't want to support that. Even that is true only if you do grant some minimal moral consideration to mere sentience.

Of course it's almost surely wrong to characterize our ethical considerations towards animals as the recognition of their "rights", as I don't see how they could ever assert those rights (Justice Douglas' looney theory aside.) And they're certainly not capable of respecting those rights in other beings or understanding the corresponding obligations as limits to their own actions.
1.7.2009 12:19pm
Alan Gunn (mail):
Our current notions of privacy will be obsolete as soon as somebody nukes New York or Seattle--probably in the next five years or so, I'd guess. Shortly after that, the government will be taping every keystroke and phone conversation, and nobody will object.
1.7.2009 12:30pm
hattio1:
Here's a couple,
The notion of choosing to live far away from work and burn fossil fuels to get there.
Possibly the death penalty (though I oppose it, so I suppose it doesn't qualify)
The notion of eating genetically modified foods

Possibly, the idea of valuing human life over the preservation of other species (when those species are close to extinction)
1.7.2009 12:38pm
A.C.:
Retirement.

If people are healthier, living longer, and not doing physical work that breaks their bodies down, there's no need. And who is supposed to pay for it?

Student years as a distinct phase of life.

Again, who can afford it? And if society is changing that fast, people will need to retool multiple times during a working life. So, study will be integrated throughout the lifespan.
1.7.2009 12:44pm
Randy R. (mail):
Obesity. People will find a way to stay slim, and we will look back upon the gorging upon food as wasteful and immoral, when many others starve.

Food production. We will be wondrous that we would actually pick a fruit before it is ripe, then expend all that effort and energy costs to ship it a thousand miles away so that someone could pay a lot for a tasteless, nutritionally poor meal. We will realize that never in history was that ever done, and we will be glad that that barbaric practice has been confined to the dustbin of history.

The notion that who a person sleeps with or what their skin color is has anything to do with morals or laws will be laughed at as immature, and really really bizarre.
1.7.2009 12:46pm
Randy R. (mail):
Also, people will look back and realize that the use of fossil fuels was a necessary stage of energy production, but will be astounded that we clung to it for so long when the evidence piled up of its harm to the environment and the human beings when other alternatives were clearly superior.

Guns will be looked at like we look at rapiers. In the future, there will be something developed that will be much more lethal and accurate than either, and it will be concealable, lightweight and easily transportable. It will likely be very difficult to detect when a person is carrying it. The NRA, of course, will be lobbying for the right for everyone to own that new thing.
1.7.2009 12:51pm
Brian Mac:

The notion that who a person sleeps with or what their skin color is has anything to do with morals or laws will be laughed at as immature, and really really bizarre.

So I'll finally be able to own up to my steamy affair with Stalin?
1.7.2009 12:52pm
Michelle Dulak Thomson (mail):
Randy R.,

Obesity. People will find a way to stay slim, and we will look back upon the gorging upon food as wasteful and immoral, when many others starve.

Um, but "people will find a way to stay slim" suggests that the "way" isn't the obvious one of eating less food. How hard do you have to look to "find" that?

"Gorging" has been called "wasteful and immoral" basically forever. May I refer you to the sixth terrace of Dante's Purgatory?
1.7.2009 1:19pm
DangerMouse:
The notion that who a person sleeps with or what their skin color is has anything to do with morals or laws will be laughed at as immature, and really really bizarre.

I see we agree. So incest and sex with children will be lost as a taboo.
1.7.2009 1:20pm
wfjag:
Summary execution will be acceptable for the offense of talking on a cell phone in a theatre or a restaurant, or while driving a vehicle.

All relationships will be virtual, making the concept of in person sexual relations offensive.

As life becomes increasingly cotton-wrapped and boring, sports will become increasingly violent to distract and entertain the bored masses, so that gladitorial events will be part of the Olympics, with virtual thumbs up and down for those paying to view the contests.
1.7.2009 1:50pm
Sara:
"Deficits don't matter."
1.7.2009 1:56pm
Calderon:
Being ever the pessimist libertarian, here are some of my guesses:

1. Individual control over what people eat will be gone. As states with nationalized health care systems (which will include the US sooner or later) look to contain costs, they'll eventually begin regulating food and requiring people to eat (what government "experts" determine is) healthier food.

2. Parental control over children. The varying skills and inexperience of parents in raising children will be come to seen as a major barrier in education and socialization. Children, starting almost from birth, will be supervised and educated by the government, and get to spend only the evening and night hours with their parents. That education will become far more encompassing and include training in morality and other issues most people now believe are best handled by parents.
1.7.2009 2:02pm
Randy R. (mail):
""Gorging" has been called "wasteful and immoral" basically forever. May I refer you to the sixth terrace of Dante's Purgatory?"

of course. But never in history has there been a population such as the US that is so morbidly obese. I predict that there will be a pill or procedure that will be made available cheaply and easily to keep us from overeating.

Dangermouse: "I see we agree. So incest and sex with children will be lost as a taboo."

Let me be more specific. Any laws or morals based upon discriminating against a person based on their skin color, race, gender or sexual orientation will be considered barbaric, as they should be,and we are in fact moving towards that already.

As incest and pedophilia are not considered sexual orientations, those would be outside of this discussion.
1.7.2009 2:22pm
keith_talent:
What happened to smoking may happen to drinking. We're probably not stupid enough to re-do prohibition. I wouldn't be surprised to see alcohol become much less socially acceptable than it is, though, just as smoking today is practically taboo. Sure, the health consequences of moderate drinking are nowhere near as adverse as those of smoking (and aren't even unambiguously negative)---but the sheer number of bodies and illnesses associated with alcohol use suggests that our social tolerance for alcohol may be unstable.
1.7.2009 2:26pm
Sagar:
Sharia!

and if by chance Sharia becomes the law of this land also, then most of the sexual orientation related practices.
1.7.2009 2:31pm
statfan (mail):
A lot of people are predicting that things of direct benefit but diffuse, distant, or only-in-aggregate harm will be recognized as immoral. Examples include driving, paper books, shipping via UPS etc. I don't think this is likely, given how I understand the human brain to work.

I am a fairly strong leftist, and in favor of state assistance and intervention in many situations. But I think it is likely that certain types of refugee management (including the building of "temporary" housing) will be seen as leading to a spiral of dependence, and thus immoral -- just as infant formula in the third world is now. I think they will continue to be practiced by corrupt regimes in order to impoverish and destroy the political power of their poor enemies or to create a source for future terrorists.
1.7.2009 2:35pm
SeaDrive:
I think it's possible that there will be a consensus on abortion, one way or the other. Denying rights to gay couples will be abhorrent. We are about half way to understanding that there is no "away" to throw trash to; everything will be reprocessed, if not re-cycled.

It's possible that the current prohibition against drugs will be seen as a failed crusade like the former prohibition against booze, but I wouldn't bet on it.
1.7.2009 2:40pm
DangerMouse:
As incest and pedophilia are not considered sexual orientations, those would be outside of this discussion.

I don't think that your prediction and my prediction are at odds, though. In fact, I suspect that they'll go hand in hand.
1.7.2009 2:46pm
wm13:
It seems plausible that an understanding of the genetic and hormonal causes of homosexuality, combined with parental autonomy, will result in the disappearance of homosexuality in the next 100 years. That doesn't mean that people will look back and condone discrimination against gays, but they also won't care much about gay rights, much less gay marriage. A whole set of issues will simply go away.
1.7.2009 2:47pm
PubliusFL:
Randy R.: Let me be more specific. Any laws or morals based upon discriminating against a person based on their skin color, race, gender or sexual orientation will be considered barbaric, as they should be,and we are in fact moving towards that already.

In other words, you missed the point. :) This is about trying to anticipate which things you are okay with now will be abhorred in the future, not predicting how you will be proven right in the future.
1.7.2009 2:51pm
ShelbyC:
pedophilia is not considered a sexual orientation? I'd imagine most folks consider it as such.
1.7.2009 2:54pm
Andy Rozell (mail):
"All relationships will be virtual, making the concept of in person sexual relations offensive."


Or people will just take a pill like in Barbarella
1.7.2009 3:18pm
Angus Lander (mail):
Ilya,

This strikes me as a facially plausible (and consistent) position on animal rights: (1) there is a moral obligation not to do certain things to animals (so they have certain rights), but (2) they do not have a "right to life" (i.e. a right not to be killed and eaten). Here's an argument for (1)

(A) if doing y to x makes x feel pain then there is a prima facie moral obligation not to do y to x.
(B) [e.g.] Stuffing cattle in tiny unclean cages makes them feel pain.
(C) There is a prima facie moral obligation not to stuff cattle into tiny unclean cages. [from A&B]

(1) quite clearly follows from (C), and (A)-(C) is sound. Does (A)-(C), mutatis mutandis, support the conclusion that animals have a right to life?

(A) If doing y to x makes x feel pain then there is a prima facie moral obligation not to do y to x.
(B') Killing [e.g.] cattle makes them feel pain.
(C') There is a prima facie moral obligation not to kill [e.g] cattle.

(C') follows from (A) and (B'), and "animals have a right to life" follows pretty directly from (C'). Unfortunately, (B') is false - there are ways of painlessly killing animals. So (A)-(C') is unsound and does not support that animals have a right to life. It is thus consistent to hold (1) and (2). But is (2) independently supported by some other argument? How about this:

(i) If x has or will have goals and projects of value to him, or desires not to die, or, by dying, would cause others great suffering then it is wrong to kill (and eat) x.
(ii) Cattle have goals and projects of value to them, or desire not to die, or, by dying, would cause others great suffering.
(iii) It is wrong to kill (and eat) Cattle.

(i) is an attempt (cribbed to some extent from Don Marquis) to enumerate the necessary and sufficient conditions of its being wrong to kill something; it seems roughly correct insofar as it generates the correct results (it basically allows euthanasia to be performed on lonely old men, those who are irrevocably comatose and not many else). It also, happily, does not entail that it is wrong to kill and eat Cattle, because (ii) is quite clearly false. Unlike (most) humans, cattle do not have goals and projects at all, nor do they have a desire not to die (they don't have the cognitive faculties to form such a desire) nor would their death cause others great suffering (or, at least, I imagine we could make it so that their deaths don't bother anybody).

In short, (A)-(C) supports (1) but not (2), so one can justifiably hold (1), and hold (2) and be consistent. On the other hand, animals have a right to life iff (i)-(iii) is sound. But (i)-(iii) is unsound, so (2) is true. One should hold (1) and (2).

Hope that helps...
1.7.2009 3:20pm
Randy R. (mail):
Pluribus: "This is about trying to anticipate which things you are okay with now will be abhorred in the future, not predicting how you will be proven right in the future."

I guess you are right. However, that hasn't stopped other people from taking issue with my comments!

Shelby: "pedophilia is not considered a sexual orientation? I'd imagine most folks consider it as such."

If so, then most people would be wrong, of course. Sexual orientation refers to which sex one is attracted (oriented) to. Some people are attracted to the opposite sex, some to the same sex, and some to both, in varying degrees.

Pedophiles, on the other hand, are attracted to very young people of either sex, so there is no specific orientation towards any gender. Of course, some pedophiles are gay, and some are straight, but that in itself has nothing to do with pedophilia.
1.7.2009 3:35pm
Randy R. (mail):
To further clarify, there is a difference between sexual orientation and sexual practices. One can be into S&M, for instance, but that isn't an orientation. Sexual practices is the catchall phrase you are looking for, and orientation is a subset of that, not the other way around.

Furthermore, orientation deals with our ingrained desires, not outward practices. One can be gay or straight and be a complete virgin, for instance. One can be gay but have engaged in only heterosexual activity, but that doesn't change the fact that you are gay.

Likewise, being a virgin ins't a sexual orientation either. It's just means you have never had sex.
1.7.2009 3:40pm
wm13:
"One can be gay but have engaged in only heterosexual activity, but that doesn't change the fact that you are gay."

That is very essentialist. Can you go to church every Sunday but still *be* Jewish? Can you register Republican and vote for Republicans but still *be* a Democrat? Can you graduate from Harvard but still *be* a Yalie? I find these possibilities highly problematic.
1.7.2009 3:47pm
Michael B (mail):
You're positing dogma, Randy, you're guessing, insisting, declaiming, asserting and preaching - and claiming it as positive knowledge when in fact it is not.

We've covered the same ground previously, upon firm epistemic and scientific grounds.
1.7.2009 3:55pm
JoeSixpack (mail):
This is an interesting game but ultimately futile as the progress of social mores and technology are both essentially random walks notwithstanding that we look back at them as if they were logical and predictable.
1.7.2009 3:58pm
Ari Tai (mail) (www):
The majority assumes "progress" proceeds with time's arrow. That's not guaranteed, if history is a guide. Consider the Victorians. Our children's children could certainly revolt against the past. More puritan than Puritans.
1.7.2009 3:59pm
Michelle Dulak Thomson (mail):
Randy R.,

But never in history has there been a population such as the US that is so morbidly obese. I predict that there will be a pill or procedure that will be made available cheaply and easily to keep us from overeating.

You mean cries of "Eww! Fat people!" aren't going to do the trick?

Seriously, which is it we're going to think immoral: Eating too much "while others starve," or not being "slim"? I don't see anything in there about actually shipping our excess food to the starving, only about making sure that we don't eat ourselves into aesthetically unpleasing shapes.

Incidentally, pedophilia is obviously a "sexual orientation," in that there are people who are not sexually aroused by adults of either gender but are by children. It is an orientation whose expression we suppress on the grounds that its objects are harmed by it, but it's obviously an orientation.
1.7.2009 4:02pm
JoeSixpack (mail):
Randy your definition of sexual orientation is limited to gender by your choice alone. A more reasonable definition of "orientation" is a relative position as between any mutually exclusive alternatives. Thus a sexual attraction to or preference for children as opposed to adults is just as much of an orientation as a sexual attraction to or preference for your own gender as opposed to the opposite gender or vice versa. You are therefore the one who is, of course, wrong.
1.7.2009 4:04pm
rjs:
I hope neck ties don't go. They are the only things that disguise how few suits I own.
1.7.2009 4:55pm
FoolsMate:
Individual real property rights will be resented as immoral and selfish.
1.7.2009 4:58pm
Kevin P. (mail):

Randy R.:
Guns will be looked at like we look at rapiers. In the future, there will be something developed that will be much more lethal and accurate than either, and it will be concealable, lightweight and easily transportable. It will likely be very difficult to detect when a person is carrying it. The NRA, of course, will be lobbying for the right for everyone to own that new thing.


The Second Amendment does protect the right to keep and bear arms, so this would be entirely consistent for the NRA.
1.7.2009 5:57pm
Kevin P. (mail):

wm13:
It seems plausible that an understanding of the genetic and hormonal causes of homosexuality, combined with parental autonomy, will result in the disappearance of homosexuality in the next 100 years. That doesn't mean that people will look back and condone discrimination against gays, but they also won't care much about gay rights, much less gay marriage. A whole set of issues will simply go away.


I fear that this is indeed possible. If homosexuality is indeed innate, then it is likely that it has a genetic component, acting alone or in combination with environmental influences. If this gene can be detected in utero, very few homosexually-oriented children will be born thereafter.
1.7.2009 6:02pm
David Schwartz (mail):
Government prohibition of plural marriage.

Limitations on people moving from country to country.

The right of a human being to privacy in his thoughts.

The right of people to impose social costs on others by engaging in risky behavior such as skiing and overeating.
1.7.2009 6:15pm
Randy R. (mail):
"That is very essentialist. Can you go to church every Sunday but still *be* Jewish? Can you register Republican and vote for Republicans but still *be* a Democrat? Can you graduate from Harvard but still *be* a Yalie? I find these possibilities highly problematic."

Sure. I know many gay men who had only heterosexual sex with women, een to the point of getting married. Some hope that getting married will "cure" them. It of course did not, and they certainly were not happy. Eventually, they stopped the farce, got divorced and came out and lived as happily gay men. Unfortunately, there are still a great many men out there living as straight men when in fact they are gay.


Michael B: "You're positing dogma, Randy, you're guessing, insisting, declaiming, asserting and preaching - and claiming it as positive knowledge when in fact it is not. "

Coming from someone who's antipathy towards gays is well known, I really wouldn't be calling other people dogmatic, guessing, and so on. However, I base my conclusions not upon dogma or antipathy towards any group, but what the experts and scientists say. For instance:

From Wikipedia:"Pedophilia is a medical diagnosis, it is defined as a psychological disorder in which an adult experiences a sexual preference for prepubescent children.[1][2][3] According to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), pedophilia is specified as a form of paraphilia in which a person either has acted on intense sexual urges towards children, or experiences recurrent sexual urges towards and fantasies about children that cause distress or interpersonal difficulty.[4] The disorder is frequently a feature of persons who commit child sexual abuse;[5][6][7] however, some offenders do not meet the clinical diagnosis standards for pedophilia.[8] In strictly behavioral contexts, the word "pedophilia" can also be applied to the act of child sexual abuse itself, also called "pedophilic behavior."

Seeing as how none of the major psychological or psychiatric or medical associations term pedophilia a 'sexual orientation' I follow their lead. If you want to come up with your own definition, by all means, go ahead, but it won't be supported by any scientific evidence.
1.7.2009 6:22pm
Randy R. (mail):
Michelle: "Seriously, which is it we're going to think immoral: Eating too much "while others starve," or not being "slim"?

In 18th century France, it is estimated that about 17% or so of the total expenditures of France were going to maintaining Versailles as a palace for the king, queen and assorted nobility. (I may be off by the percentage, but it was huge). When one factures in the clothes, meals and living expenses of the aristos, that number jumps even higher. Today, we are righly appalled that while people starved in France, so much was spent on maintaining such luxuries.

Today, the US has about 7% of the population, but consumes about 25% of the energy. In a hundred years, this will be seen as appalling as 18th century France. Obesity is merely a part of that 25% consumption.
1.7.2009 6:49pm
Michelle Dulak Thomson (mail):
Randy R.: If someone who experiences sexual desire towards adults of his/her own sex has a homosexual "orientation," and someone who does likewise towards adults of the opposite sex has a heterosexual "orientation," then are you saying that someone sexually attracted to adults of neither sex, but to children of one or both sexes, has no sexual orientation? Never mind DSM for the moment; just try to define "sexual orientation" in such a way that everyone has one (which you believe, yes?), and then try to fit pedophiles into the schema. Can you imagine a male "heterosexual" repulsed by all adult females? A male "homosexual" repulsed by all adult males? I can't.
1.7.2009 7:01pm
gattsuru (mail) (www):
Seeing as how none of the major psychological or psychiatric or medical associations term pedophilia a 'sexual orientation' I follow their lead.


I don't think homosexual behavior was considered a sexual orientation in the 70s copy of the DSM, either. I'm not sure how the dictionary definition changes what observed behavior is.

I can also think of far easier lines to draw in the sand here than what a random group defines a topic as. Like, say, the phrase "disparity of power".
1.7.2009 7:05pm
Pat C (mail):
Maybe the idea in Fritz Leiber's "Coming Attraction" that exposing your real face in public will become offensive. Concept also appeared in Jack Vance's "The Moon Moth".
1.7.2009 7:35pm
ForestGirl (mail):
I think most people are missing the most interesting part of this question--your answer should make you uncomfortable. It's akin to asking yourself whether you really would have been an abolitionist in the 19th century. You would like to think so, but are you sure you would have seen what are now obvious moral pitfalls? So you ask yourself what modern-day situation is similar to slavery?

And I (pro-choice) would answer that abortion is one strong possibility. As I wrote in answer to Orin's earlier post, the parallels between slavery and abortion are interesting and thought-provoking when framed around this concept of future morals. We avoid questions of the morality of abortion by arguing that a fetus isn't "fully human," much like slave owners once argued that black men and women weren't "fully human." Do we really believe this? Or is it an argument that is contrived to make us feel better about something we find necessary?

As technology once made slavery obsolete, it will also eventually make abortion irrelevant (through the creation, someday, of foolproof, comfortable, and cheap birth control that is switched on at puberty and switched off on demand). I think it is very possible that 100 years from now our great-great-grandchildren will be shake their heads in disbelief that we thought fetuses weren't human and we claimed to need the option of abortion because birth control was uncomfortable/awkward/embarassing/expensive. Just like paying someone a proper wage to pick cotton was difficult and expensive.
1.7.2009 8:58pm
Brett Bellmore:
Death. Letting people rot, just because we can't presently return them to full health.

When cryonics, or some other form of backup of the contents of one's mind, becomes feasible, declaring people "dead", and letting their bodies rot away, destroying their minds, will be viewed as barbarism. Today it's almost universally accepted, chiefly because it's unavoidable.

One day people will look back on this era, and wonder why we let billions of unique individuals suffer entropic decay when plopping them into liquid nitrogen for fifty or sixty years until technology could fix what ailed them was perfectly feasible.
1.7.2009 9:35pm
Waldo (mail):
Going back to the original post,

"What are the ideas or practices that are uncontroversial and widely accepted today — and that you personally find unobjectionable — that you think might be seen as barbaric or immoral one hundred years from now?"

On OKs issues, I won't comment on the death penalty, since I don't believe it's unobjectionable.

I think eating meat will be considered immoral, but not solely due to animal rights. Meat production consumes far more grain calories than it produces for humans (about 10:1 IIRC) When you add 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians to the 700 million North Americans and Europeans, I don't believe that level of consumption will be morally sustainable. Add that cows produce methane that contributes to global warming, and meat will increasingly be seen as immoral by people who think warming is our highest priority.

I don't honestly think that opposition to "national service" will catch on, though. Call me a cynic, but most moral exhortations to work for the common good have failed (Pilgrims, Communism, etc.) All seem to fall to the notion, "They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work."

Two ideas/practices that I think will be seen as immoral in the future are:

Privacy: This goes beyond James of England's post above. I don't disagree that businesses will favor electronic payment to speed checkouts (and gather marketing data). There are already other uses of tracking data. These tools will (are) also be harnessed to fight terrorism and political/corporate corruption.

If you stretch Glenn Reynolds' idea, everyone will be able to track everyone else's information. All financial records, personal data, and contracts will be public and accessable to anyone who cares to search. If you think people will mind, consider what personal information high school and college students are willing to post on-line. Once they start making hiring decisions, full transparency will be the norm. (This is not my original idea. See David Brin's Earth.)

Marriage (government recognition of and benefits related to): In short, fewer people are married. Less than half of households are now married couples This will inevitably reduce the number of benefits tied to marriage. According to Prof Coontz in the article, “we have an anachronistic view as to what extent you can use marriage to organize the distribution and redistribution of benefits.” After all, why should who a person sleeps with affect their insurance?

Marriage will also decline due to the migration of norms from minority communities. This has occurred for about the last 50 years (think of the popularity of hip-hop and its message on marriage), and the marriage rate among black women is significantly lower than that of other ethnic groups. Increasingly, marriage will be considered "white" and white will be considered uncool.
1.7.2009 9:48pm
Randy R. (mail):
Michelle: "Randy R.: If someone who experiences sexual desire towards adults of his/her own sex has a homosexual "orientation," and someone who does likewise towards adults of the opposite sex has a heterosexual "orientation,"

Correct.

" then are you saying that someone sexually attracted to adults of neither sex, but to children of one or both sexes, has no sexual orientation?"

As far as I know, there have been no cases of anyone not having any attraction to either sex. Therefore, your question doesn't make any sense.

All pedophiles HAVE a sexual orientation -- towards either their own sex, or the opposite sex. This is how the FBI has classified pedophiles, and it states that the vast majority of pedophiles are actually heterosexuals. So -- a heterosexual pedophile will be attracted to little girls, and a homosexual pedophile will be attracted to little boys. If, as you argue, pedophilia is itself a sexual orientation, then we would see equal interest in boys AND girls from all pedophiles. However, that is not the case.

It is strange, I find, that people such as Michael B and other strive so hard to include pedophilia as a sexual orientation, just like heterosexuality. Me, I consider it a disease (because that's how the professionals regard it), and I certainly don't want a disease classified as something that I am a part of. But that's just me.
1.7.2009 11:57pm
Randy R. (mail):
gattsuru: "I don't think homosexual behavior was considered a sexual orientation in the 70s copy of the DSM, either. I'm not sure how the dictionary definition changes what observed behavior is. "

Prior to the 70s, homosexuality was considered a form of mental illness. However, there was no science to back that up. It was just an assumption made. Dr. Beverly Hooker, (I know, ironic name) did extensive studies throughout the 60s and 70s to determine whether homosexuality was a mental illness, using the definition of mental illness that is still used today. After exhaustive and thorough peer reviewed research, she found no basis to conclude that it is a mental illness, and her reports were crucial for the APA to vote it off the list of mental illnesses. Since then, more evidence has come in to strongly support that notion.

therefore, the dictionary didn't not change it's definition, but our understanding of sexual orientation has. Again, if you have any credible scientific research that shows otherwise, we can all take a look at it. In the absense of such, however, we accept the latest findings.

Bottomline: Everyone has a sexual orientation, and it is one of thre general categories, heterosexual, bisexual and homosexual. (There are other very small categories to cover people who are hermaphrodites, or consider themselves transsexuals). If you don't like this, please take it up with the authorities, but not me, okay?
1.8.2009 12:04am
darrenm:
With the increasing advancement of video technology, it will be possible to easily simulate child pornography. No actual children will be harmed. You see this today already. This will coursen society in the long run. Child pornography will become more mainstream. The common age of consent will be lowered to maybe 13 or 14.
1.8.2009 12:21am
Michelle Dulak Thomson (mail):
[Apologies to all & sundry for remaining OT]

Randy R.:

a heterosexual pedophile will be attracted to little girls, and a homosexual pedophile will be attracted to little boys.

(Assuming that all pedophiles are male! Do we know that?)

My point, such as it was, was that if you find adults of both sexes sexually off-putting, but are aroused by children, it's a little misleading to call you either "straight" or "gay." You aren't "oriented" towards adult sexual beings at all.

I am surprised, though, to learn from you that male pedophiles interested in boys are actually gay men, only sick ones. Other people I've read on this subject (in connection with the abuse scandals in the Catholic Church, for example, where the victims were nearly always boys) have been quick to say that pedophilia is something quite apart from sexual orientation, such that a man might be sexually interested in adult women and nonetheless molest boys. Not true?
1.8.2009 12:23am
einhverfr (mail) (www):
ForestGirl:

Good Points. My parents had many good friends who were deeply involved in the Sanctuary Movement, and while they weren't directly involved, they certainly offered real support. Twenty years later, there is a recognition that we sponsored some fairly brutal behavior in many parts of Central America and this is distasteful.

However, there is another element as well, and this is how we continue to whitewash our own history in order to avoid looking at it too closely. Any time one brings up arbitrary killing or expulsion of Jews due to antisemitism in Europe, everyone thinks of the Holocaust, forgetting that deep problems occurred elsewhere and the holocaust was only the worst instance (though probably not bad enough to be worse than the aggregate experience of Jews in Europe during the few centuries prior).

How many people think the South was much more racist than the North around the time of the Civil War?

As always it is easier to point out the spec in the neighbor's eye than to see the timber in our own.
1.8.2009 12:26am
Michael B (mail):
Randy R.,

I said - absolutely - nothing - about pedophilia. Nada, nil, zil, nihil, zero.

Likewise, I do not have and have not expressed "antipathy" toward gays, I have stood for genuine conceptions of science, for thoughtfulness and compassion, and I have stood against gay marriage. You're the one who assumes, who imputes "hate," "antipathy," etc., not I. Such imputations and assumptions, at best, are strawman arguments.
1.8.2009 12:36am
Randy R. (mail):
Michelle: "My point, such as it was, was that if you find adults of both sexes sexually off-putting, but are aroused by children...."

But that's the issue. As far as I know, there are NO cases (or perhaps very rare), in which a person is not attracted to either sex. They may not like sex with adults, but they are still attracted to one gender or another.

" You aren't "oriented" towards adult sexual beings at all. misleading to call you either "straight" or "gay." You aren't "oriented" towards adult sexual beings at all."

Perhaps not. But you are still oriented towards either female children, or male children. In other words, the sexual orientation comes first -- toward either females or males. But your attraction may not be towards adults, but only children. Fine, but it doesn't change the fact that you are either gay or straight. (or bi)

"I am surprised, though, to learn from you that male pedophiles interested in boys are actually gay men, only sick ones. Other people I've read on this subject (in connection with the abuse scandals in the Catholic Church, for example, where the victims were nearly always boys)"

Not true. The majority of sexual abuse cases have been women both within the Catholic Church scandals and in the greater society. It's only that the males who were abused have been more vocal with regards to the Church. The fact is that about half of all members of the victims' organizations of the Catholic Church are female. (Furthermore, FBI stats show that the vast majority of pedophiles are heterosexual men who abuse young girls.)

There are likely cases of females abusing children, either boys or girls, but again that is rare. The vast majority of pedophilia cases are commited by men.

" have been quick to say that pedophilia is something quite apart from sexual orientation,"

True. That's exactly what I have been trying to say! pedophilia is not a sexual orientation! It is, however, a disease.

"such that a man might be sexually interested in adult women and nonetheless molest boys. Not true?"

Not true. Or,at least I have seen no cases in which that is true. Perhaps there are some, but I'm not aware of it. In any case, it would be quite rare.

Men who are sexually oriented towards women and are pedophiles will molest young girls. Men who are sexually oriented towards men and are pedophiles will molest young boys.

Michael B: "You're the one who assumes, who imputes "hate," "antipathy," etc., not I. Such imputations and assumptions, at best, are strawman arguments"

Well, then. I didnt' say you hate gays, yet you just said I did. Furthermore, you attacked me by saying that I merely used dogma, preaching, etc when in fact I used a reasoned argument grounded upon the current scientific consensus, and you said so regarding my statements saying that pedophilia was not a sexual orientation. You are free to disagree, but you should at least be thoughtful enough to use rationality. In other words, if you want to be treated with respect, then please use some yourself. Thanks.
1.8.2009 1:30am
trad and anon (mail):
As far as I know, there have been no cases of anyone not having any attraction to either sex. Therefore, your question doesn't make any sense.
There are definitely people who claim not to experience sexual attraction to anyone of either sex. I have yet to see any evidence that they're mistaken or lying. I would describe these people as having an "asexual" sexual orientation (which is also the term they use for themselves).
Bottomline: Everyone has a sexual orientation, and it is one of thre general categories, heterosexual, bisexual and homosexual. (There are other very small categories to cover people who are hermaphrodites, or consider themselves transsexuals). If you don't like this, please take it up with the authorities, but not me, okay?
Nonsense. People experience wildly differing degrees of sexual attraction to members of the same sex, from exclusive homosexuality to a few sexual fantasies over the course of their lifetime. Situational homosexual behavior it is not uncommon among people who are otherwise straight (students at girls' schools who are "bi until graduation"; same-sex rape in prisons; a naval tradition of rum, sodomy, and the lash, etc.). And there are people who are almost exclusively heterosexual (or homosexual) who experiences occasional attraction to a member of the same (or opposite) sex, possibly resulting in one or two same-sex (or opposite-sex) sexual encounters over the course of a lifetime. You can declare that all these people have a "bisexual" orientation if you want, but at that point you're just playing word games.

Of course, as a categories suitable for everyday life, "straight," "gay," and "bisexual" do just fine. But it's a mistake to assume that the three-category scheme reflects some deep truth about the nature of human sexuality.

As for intersexuality and transsexuality, I don't see why you need different sexual orientation categories for them. Use the appropriate sexual orientation for whatever sex you consider them as having.

BTW, there are no true hermaphrodites.
1.8.2009 1:33am
Randy R. (mail):
The victims' sex abuse organization is SNAP,and you can find it online. INterestingly, there is a whole page devoted to female abuse victims, and while many are priests, turns out nuns were abusing young girls as well. Therefore, female pedophiles may not be as rare as I thought, at least within the Church. I stand corrected.

"There are definitely people who claim not to experience sexual attraction to anyone of either sex. I have yet to see any evidence that they're mistaken or lying. I would describe these people as having an "asexual" sexual orientation (which is also the term they use for themselves)."'

I stand corrected. However, these people are not pedophiles either, and my overall point remains. If you are not sexually attracted to either sex, then that pretty much precludes you from being attracted to either sex, regardless of age.

"Of course, as a categories suitable for everyday life, "straight," "gay," and "bisexual" do just fine. But it's a mistake to assume that the three-category scheme reflects some deep truth about the nature of human sexuality. "

Of course you are correct. I am well aware of the Kinsey scale. But as this is really a bit off topic, I didn't want to get into all the specifics. That's why I was careful to say "generally" and to include bisexuals. The fact remains that everyone falls into one of the categories at any one time. Over a lifetime, who knows? The real point is that we know very little about human sexuality, which I'm sure you will agree. I just wanted to argue the specific point that pedophilia is not considered a sexual orientation, and so far no one has provided any proof that it is.
1.8.2009 1:42am
trad and anon (mail):
Perhaps not. But you are still oriented towards either female children, or male children. In other words, the sexual orientation comes first -- toward either females or males. But your attraction may not be towards adults, but only children. Fine, but it doesn't change the fact that you are either gay or straight. (or bi)
This is more word games. The interesting question is whether someone's attraction to children exclusively targeting a particular sex has the general cause as someone's attraction to adults exclusively targeting a particular sex. We don't know this, just as we don't know what causes sexual orientation generally. (Including heterosexuality; we can be quite sure it's somehow biological, but we don't know anything about the biological mechanism at work.)
1.8.2009 1:42am
trad and anon (mail):
Of course you are correct. I am well aware of the Kinsey scale. But as this is really a bit off topic, I didn't want to get into all the specifics. That's why I was careful to say "generally" and to include bisexuals. The fact remains that everyone falls into one of the categories at any one time. Over a lifetime, who knows? The real point is that we know very little about human sexuality, which I'm sure you will agree. I just wanted to argue the specific point that pedophilia is not considered a sexual orientation, and so far no one has provided any proof that it is.
Fair enough.
1.8.2009 1:44am
Michael B (mail):
"The majority of sexual abuse cases have been women both within the Catholic Church scandals and in the greater society." Randy R.

In terms of institutionally based sex scandals there are three (3) loci of note:

1) private and public primary schools
2) the United Nations
3) the Catholic Church

The fact the first two receive little attention is a reflection of media-driven and other priorities, not the realities, not the facts on the ground. And there are other loci still, such as prison populations, but in terms of primary institutions which should better police itself, those three institutions are particularly noteworthy.

"I didn't say you hate gays ..."

In this thread, no, so if that reflects a change, ok, but elsewhere, in other threads, you have suggested it. Likewise, I didn't "attack you," I took note of the fact you're argument is not as you represent it. I did that by pointing to a prior comment here - a "rational" argument by most any standard. By contrast you do little more than allude to a purported "consensus" and posit it as science and fact upon positive epistemic grounds. It is no such thing.

And again, I said nothing as pertains to pedophilia per se. My view, one substantiated by the varied anthropological evidence and as reflected in this earlier comment and thread, is that human sexuality is polymorphous and learned. That too reflects the "rationality" you're seeking.

Thanks, and don't confuse rationality with arguments that appeal to your own sensibilities and preconceptions. The two are not synonymous and the fact you are confusing the two reflects upon an inability to engage in more probative and more demanding forms of self-criticism.
1.8.2009 3:02am
Michael B (mail):
Clarification: human sexuality is not simply polymorphous and learned, a more expansive explication is of course needed. There are all manner of biological, morphological, environmental, familial, psychological, socio-cultural, etc., etc. factors, but the science does not support the dichotomized view, the purported "orientation" of either homosexual or heterosexual, or some variation upon that more or less dichotomized view.
1.8.2009 3:09am
Duncan Frissell (mail):
I think the basic question of these posts is difficult to answer because of the strong possibility that societies will split and realign on the basis of affinity groups governed by different laws and ethical obligations.

This is already starting to happen with religious and sexual minorities.
1.8.2009 10:52am
Randy R. (mail):
B: "My view, one substantiated by the varied anthropological evidence and as reflected in this earlier comment and thread, is that human sexuality is polymorphous and learned."

Perhaps. As we all agree, no one knows the cause of anyone's particular sexuality. What we DO know is that there is no evidence a person can change their sexuality. in other words, a homosexual cannot change and become heterosexual, or vice versa. So learned or not, its' pretty much set at a very early age and doesn't change significantly. One can certainly suppress one's sexuality, i.e., deny that one has some or total attraction for a person of the same sex, but that doesn't change the over all orientation.

Frissell: Really? You mean that gays have one set of laws, and straight have another? And our ethics are compeletly different? Any evidence, or are these just scare tactics?
1.8.2009 10:04pm
Aaron Armitage (mail):
Responding to Rich B., way up thread:

"Congressional Districts are varying populations based upon the prohibition of crossing state lines to draw districts."

It's interesting that it never occurs to you to simply increase the size of the House. Even the very large increase needed to eliminate almost all variance would be easier than amending the Constitution and creating a federal redistricting scheme.
1.9.2009 2:51pm
Michael B (mail):
No Randy, I disagree almost entirely with the sentiments expressed.

Firstly, I said "substantiated," not proven in some type of absolute, deductive and never again to be questioned sense. I substantiated my position on rational grounds, in fact rather thoroughly, so there's no "perhaps" about it.

Secondly, that substantiation (of the polymorphous pov) calls into question the dichotomized, reductionist view as reflected in the term "orientation" (which is why arguments are forwarded to claim a "genetic" basis - and therein a putatively "scientific" determinism), so that general framework is itself being called into question.

Thirdly and finally I'll simply emphasize that when I used the term "learn" I was doing so simply as a shorthand expression and was not used in some simplistic sense. So I wouldn't have a problem with the "orientation" term in a softer, more fluid, non-deterministic sense, but that doesn't appear to be the manner in which you're using the term.
1.9.2009 3:39pm
cmr:
Perhaps. As we all agree, no one knows the cause of anyone's particular sexuality. What we DO know is that there is no evidence a person can change their sexuality. in other words, a homosexual cannot change and become heterosexual, or vice versa. So learned or not, its' pretty much set at a very early age and doesn't change significantly. One can certainly suppress one's sexuality, i.e., deny that one has some or total attraction for a person of the same sex, but that doesn't change the over all orientation.


Randy, we don't even know for certain that people are entirely one thing or another.

Your sexual identity doesn't come fully intact at birth, and I do believe that people can be pushed a certain way in terms of their sexual identity. I think it's absolutely true that a lot of lesbians aren't so much "I'm actively attracted to women" so much as they are "I don't want a man". I think there are a lot of young gay males who assume they are gay because of sexual abuse and act on it.
1.10.2009 12:45am

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