These days, we are repeatedly told that we have to pass a massive new infrastructure spending bill in order to fix our "crumbling" roads and bridges. Everyone seems to have forgotten that just three years ago, in August 2005, Congress enacted the biggest federal public works program in American history, spending a massive $286.4 billion on the 2005 highway bill. At that time, President Bush and congressional leaders from both parties told us that the new highway bill was needed to fix our infrastructure problems.
Before passing a new and potentially even bigger infrastructure spending bill, I would just like to know what happened to all that money Congress appropriated for the same purpose back in 2005? If that act succeeded in its purpose, it's not clear why we need another huge federal infrastructure bill now, less than four years later. If it failed, we need to know why.
One reason why the 2005 bill may have failed is that much of the money was spent on various porkbarrel projects, such as the notorious "Bridge to Nowhere," which is the only thing most people now remember from that bill. It's certainly possible that the 2005 money was largely wasted because most of it went to politically connected interest groups and districts rather than genuinely valid infrastructure priorities. But if the 2005 bill indeed failed for that reason, why would we expect a different result this time around? You have to be a very committed partisan to believe that today's Democratic Congressmen and senators are any less committed to lining the pockets of their favored interest groups than their Republican predecessors were in 2005. Certainly, Democrats such as Barney Frank have been more than willing to do that with the funds allocated in the bailout bill. Whether Congress is controlled by Democrats or Republicans, it is almost inevitable that much of the money appropriated in in large spending bills will be allocated on the basis of political power rather than economic rationality. Congressmen who refuse to channel money to politically influential constituents are unlikely to hold onto power long.
I know, of course, that many argue that we need an infrastructure bill today in order to provide economic stimulus. Economists actually disagree among themselves over the question of whether a stimulus bill would do more harm than good. I personally lack sufficient expertise on macroeconomics to adjudicate this debate intelligently. But even if we assume that stimulus is necessary, there are lots of ways to provide it without enacting a massive infrastructure bill where much of the money is likely to be diverted to pork and other inefficient projects that consume more wealth than they produce. My George Mason colleague Alex Tabarrok has a good summary of the alternatives.
I'm not categorically opposed to all federal highway spending. But before we enact a massive new infrastructure bill, we need a clear explanation of why the 2005 highway bill wasn't enough, and why if it wasn't we should expect better results this time around. So far, these questions have hardly been asked, much less answered.
UPDATE: For clarification, it should be noted that the current draft of the Obama stimulus bill contains much less infrastructure spending than the 2005 highway bill. However, state and local governments, and many commentators are advocating much higher levels of new infrastructure spending. It is unlikely that the current bill will be the end of the issue.
You should be. It's perhaps the biggest intrusion into the free market that the government makes (outside of maybe healthcare and education), and is likely responsible for a good deal of our environmental problems (both macro issues like global warming, and more localized issues arising from suburban sprawl). Then again, there's also a case to be made that zoning and parking mandates are more to blame than highway spending, which is relatively "free market"-y due to its reliance on user fees (gas taxes, registration fees, etc.). Then again, if these "stimulus" package is large enough, the user fee-to-spending ratio might fall even further.
It's funny that Democrats are always down to waste money on mass transit projects (which, given America's regulated density, are unlikely to ever cover as much of their costs as highways), but very few realize that there was once a time when mass transit was actually private, profitable, and widespread, and that it was destroyed by government.
I have to admit a certain amount of perplexity for the way that an over $800 Billion bill that spends less than 5.3% on highways and transportation-related projects is being sold as “repairing our nation’s crumbing infrastructure.” Or how it’s somehow a “stimulus bill” that is needed “immediately” when most of the money doesn’t actually even get spent for the first couple of years. Even if one believes that the government by taking another $800 plus billion away from the private sector during a recession would “stimulate” rather than hamper an economic recovery, this isn’t even good policy from a Keynesian perspective as most of the new outlays won’t be for years later (which is the other major flaw in “stimulus” bills).
Per the Congressional Budget Office, roughly two thirds (65 percent) of the spending in the House Democratic Bill would be spent by the end of September 2010.
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/safetealu/index.htm
Note that the act seems to expire in 2009, so a new one that deals with allocation of the Federal Highway Trust Fund is not unreasonable. It also appears that much of the bill was simply a redistrbution of FHTF funds that would have been doled out anyway, and not some new apportionment that was previously unimagined.
Reading is FUNdamental. From the link you provided, the CBO stated that:
emphasis added
Just because some liberal hack in the media wants to try and distort the effect of this "stimulus" program, doesn't mean you don't have to bother reading the articles.
I would be more supportive of a massive highway bill if I believed it reflected a consensus that development is a net positive rather than an excuse to increase the power of politicians. I don't see any evidence of the former; many of the same people pushing "stimulus" still live under the rape of virgin Gaia mythos.
I think that's a valid criticism of highway projects that add capacity to the transportation system. Our nation's transportation system, though, has significant needs that don't add capacity. For instance, repairing the nation's 170,000 structurally deficient bridges alone would cost $140 billion. Unfortunately, I don't believe that's where the spending in the stimulus bill is going.
As far as I can tell from skimming over the summary from the House Appropriations Committee, this stimulus package isn't really an infrastructure bill. Only a relatively small percentage of the spending ($63.5 billion or 7.8 percent) of the proposed spending would go to traditional infrastructure. According to Representative Oberstar, Chairman of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure:
The package allocates a laughable $2 billion toward our nation's drinking water infrastructure, despite the fact that the House Appropriations summaryacknowledges a $274 billion funding gap (see page 8).
I'm pretty bitterly disappointed that Congress failed to take this opportunity to seriously address our nation's crumbling infrastructure. It looks to me like they've instead taken the opportunity to push a lot of other spending initiatives that they've long sought.
And some of you are shocked and disappointed. Given their history of doing the exact same thing, over and over again, why would you expect this time to be any different?
The vast majority of the benefit of having such bridges is received by the folks who live near them. Yet, those folks don't think that fixing them is worth the cost. So, why should we pay to do the job? Why should we tax those folks to pay for bridges elsewhere?
I agree that reading is fundamental. Let's try reading the next paragraph instead of stopping at the first sentence.
That, by the way, is precisely what I wrote in my earlier post. Now let's go back to that first sentence which you quoted:
A careless reader might conclude that there is a conflict between these two paragraphs. A precise reader, however, realizes that there is no conflict. The "of the spending and tax cuts" in that sentence refers to the $816 billion total cost of the package (which includes both spending and tax cuts), not the $526 billion that will be spent by September 2010.
I suppose it is possible that when the author of the article wrote that "approximately $526 billion, or about 65 percent, would be spent by the end of September 2010," the author intended to include both funds that the Government would spend by allowing tax cuts and funds that the Government would spend by making an appropriation. I don't know. I haven't read the full CBO report to check. Perhaps I will do that later. Even if that is the case, however, there's nothing incorrect about the comment that I wrote above. Spent is spent.
The stimulus package is being justified as infrastructure, but the spending isn't really going to infrastructure. Frankly, I think the meme that infrastructure spending will take too long is simply an excuse that Congress is using to allocate funds to "sexier" things than infrastructure. Representative Oberstar has a response to the claim that infrastructure spending can't occur quickly:
If you are talking about new highway construction, then you are correct that it will take years. Right-of-way acquisition and environmental clearance alone will ensure a delay of several years. There is no reason that projects like repairing a structurally deficient bridge on its existing alignment could not occur on a rapid pace. These projects will fit within categorical exclusions from NEPA's requirement for an environmental impact statement. There is no right-of-way acquisition if you are staying in the same alignment, and no need to prepare a 4(f) statement (which would address taking historical properties). All that you need to do is design the project, get your Section 404 and NPDES permits and then proceed with letting and construction.
Remember, there are 170,000 structurally deficient in this nation. Surely, we could find a way to spend a significant chunk of change on some of them in the next 18 months..
You could offer that same criticism of the entire interstate highway system. I think most people consider contributions toward highways a valid use of federal dollars. I know that I like being able to drive far from home on good roads.
I wonder if, in retrospect, the interstate highway system has been a positive for the country? Would alternatives have developed? Would urban-sprawl + class-based greenbelting have been less-likely to occur without urban superhighways?
I know that I like being able to drive far from home on good roads.
Me, too. Although the old two-laners through the hills are more fun in a small car. :)
That's a decent argument to favor transit projects over new highway construction or capacity-adding highway projects. Unless you think that we're going to rip up the asphalt and force re-urbanization, though, we're going to need to maintain the existing system (which includes spending to repair structurally deficient bridges).
Those old two-laners through the hills are part of the interstate highway system. =)
I doubt that we'll get around to tearing-down the mistaken infrastructure of yesterday. But it's worth thinking about before building more; the worst consequences of spending of this sort are probably unforeseeable and, like you point out about the interstates, unlikely to ever be undone.
You are right. I was being a bit careless in my categorizations. For our purposes, though, does it make any difference? Highways in the National Highway System are built with federal funding and administered by the states pursuant to stewardship agreements with the Federal Highway Administration.
People are going to look back on this period of time and think we were complete fracking idiots, no exaggeration. We have a credit crisis, so we decide we need to borrow a trillion extra dollars. Made on the governments magic printing press? And people actually think this is a good idea. What is wrong with us? If these programs are so important why not just write them into the 'real' budget?
We are going to turn a natural part of the business cycle into a death spiral of stagflation if we aren't careful. Most of this money is going to hit the economy when the recovery is underway and inflation is going to skyrocket... right about the time oil shoots back up because growth is revived (hows that offshore drilling coming btw?)
Democrats believe in this nonsense and fundamentally refuse to understand the leaky bucket problem with government spending. Republicans have no excuse. Word of warning- if Republicans don't oppose this bill, WHAT DO THEY OPPOSE? Aside from writing mandatory abortion into the bill, i can't think of how this could be fundamentally more in opposition to everything conservatives claim to stand for.
The question nobody seems to be asking is where is this stimulus money coming from? The answer is it is coming from you and me. The Fed Funds rate is essentially 0%. The banks are sitting on the bailout money to cover the expected losses from the housing crash. Once the banks start using the bailout funds were going to see inflation like we have never seen before. We are going to pay for the stimulus package through inflation. The beauty of taxing by inflation, from the politicians point of view, is you don't take money away from the taxpayers. What inflation taxing does is take a portion of the wealth that the money represents and transfers it to the government. IOW, the "stimulus" for all practical purposes, changes who decides how to spend the wealth. How is that suppose to stimulate the economy?
I hardly think they are "shovel ready", unless they are projects that already have funding designated for them. It appears from the AASHTO's 23 Jan 2009 Press Release (which doesn't note a dollar total) that projects are, at a minimum ready to be let in 120 days. What let means is questionable -- I'd have said it means the point at which the government/municipality approved the contract with the construction contractor -- but in this undated video, but clearly made after Obama's inauguration, John Horsley, AASHTO Executive Director stated that the states had identified 5,000 projects (again $ value not noted) that are specifically termed "ready to go" and can be under contract in under 180 days. So, really, they are six months to "shovel ready".
Just a note, it would be another two months at a minimum before the contractor gets his first stimulus driven check but I don't count won't count it since the contractor starts paying his workers after only one week. Still, the construction contracts signed might be a duration anywhere from three months to 18 months.
Question the hype. Also question the assumptions, such as what embedded process waivers would be required. The devil is in Mr. Oberstar's response, whether he knows it or not.
That was my thought as well, in which case what’s being proposed then is to use borrowed federal tax dollars to fund projects that have funding designated at the State and/or local level. So instead of funding new construction and/or or maintenance with the 5.28 percent of the spending bill that’s actually being designated for highways and infrastructure, what we’re doing is we’re paying at the federal level for projects that would probably already be proceeding and funded by the people most likely to benefit from them. This would enable State and/or local governments to use the money that they already allocated for their infrastructure for other “priorities” like sports stadiums, subsidies to encourage businesses to relocate from other areas, etc.
Renovation is not maintenance.
From the examples:
I find it hard to believe Missouri has $9M to $12M bridge renovation projects ready to bid that they do not have already dedicated funding for and can put under contract in 90 days or just add to an ongoing maintenance contract. If they did, they can just stimulate their economy themselves by building it.
Portland Oregon could easily get a $15M interchange project out and start construction in 2009. Just about anyone could, but that's not shovel-ready.
In the Transit department, there is a $550,000,000 project to rehabilitate two dozen NYCT subway stations. From even the obviously obtuse description of the NYC's work and the general description of the work on this project, they are certainly "shovel-ready".
I'm certainly not arguing that any of these projects are unworthy. I'm also not arguing at this time that the stimulus, in abstract, is not be reasonable. What I object to is the lying that is being done as in an effort to sell it.
$66B and $15B in shovel-ready projects? Pfui. That is flummery.
Right. I think a lot of the shovel ready projects identified by AASHTO are maintenance projects, not renovation or new construction. I get that from this sentence on page 2 of the document that I linked above: "For example, State DOTs often have open-ended contracts in place for resurfacing projects, which means that work could begin immediately upon receipt of additional funds." (Resurfacing is maintenance, not renovation.) Perhaps I am reading too much into one sentence, but I have no doubt that states could easily spend a significant portion of the funding stimulus bill on maintenance. Pennsylvania alone faced a $536 million shortfall in its 2007-2008 funding just to preserve its existing highway and bridge system.
Your skepticism about renovation or new construction projects being shovel worthy, but unfunded, is well taken. I think, though, that you are failing to take the current transportation funding climate into account. Its entirely plausible to me that states may have canceled projects in final design due to budgetary shortfalls.
I agree that resurfacing, such as a chip and seal, is maintenance. So is skim coating rutted rural roads for runoff purposes. I'll even give you 1" overlays, though it starts to become a problem when state and county roads are uncurbed as become much more than an overlay and often requires individual evaluations and documents of the work to be performed, even if simplified. IOW, you don't just add a bunch of roads to a list and say go do these. They are time specific because conditions are time specific therefore the work to be performed is too.
It's not a lot of money, however, and what money there is is pretty limited in scope and not very labor intensive. I suspect that if the numbers were shown for the shovel ready maintenance you are so attached to, it will be a rather small percentage, no more than 5% of the money to be dedicated to this industry.
Now for the examples given, the only ones that are "shovel ready" don't need shovels since they are purchases of equipment -- locomotives, buses and the like. None of the transportation projects listed are shovel ready. Neither, I'll bet, are the water quality projects or the Transit projects. Oh, and contrary to what I typed in the previous comment, I doubt very highly that the $550,000,000 NYCT subway stations project would even be ready to bid for at least a year.
As for your indication that "Pennsylvania alone faced a $536 million shortfall in its 2007-2008 funding just to preserve its existing highway and bridge system," is this really true? 2007-2008? This is the year before the economic problems surfaced and if this is so and I were a Pennsylvanian, I'd consider that a dereliction of duty by those responsible for this fiasco and want them tarred, feathered and run out of town. As a NY'er, I don't think the national government should be bailing out states for their utterly irresponsible mismanagement. And you can say the same about Paterson and the NY legislature if so please, 'cause I do constantly.
States have faced significant problems in transportation funding for several years now; it predates the current economic crisis. Its a result of aging infrastructure, inflation and dramatically escalating costs. The issues in Pennsylvania are discussed in the report that I linked above. Its not the result of dereliction by state officials.
Although, there is a decent argument to be made that Pennsylvania simply has too many roads. There are as many state-owned highway miles in Pennsylvania as there are in New York, New Jersey and all the New England states combined.
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