The Volokh Conspiracy - Crystal Ball A Little Bit Off:

The news that Justice Souter has informed President Obama of his intent to resign reminds me of a post I wrote on election night back in November:

[Orin Kerr, November 5, 2008 at 1:03am] Trackbacks
A Prediction about the Next Move on the Court:
At the end of the OT08 Term, in late June 2009, Justice David Souter informs President Barack Obama that he is resigning from the Supreme Court. A month later, President Obama nominates Elena Kagan, currently the Dean of Harvard Law School, to replace him.

Rats, my timing was way way off. The crystal ball was saying Souter would inform Obama in late June, not late April. Can't trust those crystal balls, I guess.

UPDATE: Incidentally, my favorite hint that Souter was retiring, other than the law clerk bit, was Justice Ginsburg's comment about the official Supreme Court photograph back in March:

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg told law students Friday there could be an opening on the Supreme Court soon but didn't hint at who might be leaving. Ginsburg, who spoke at New England Law's annual "Law Day," said the nine justices only take pictures together when a new member is added. "We haven't had any of those for some time, but surely we will soon," she said.

(link)

Just an Observer:

Okay show-off, will Obama still nominate Kagan to the court?

5.1.2009 12:00am

Let me pledge my allegiance now, Overloard Kerr, in the hopes that during your bloody rise to psychic power I might share in that power before you devour my head.

5.1.2009 12:01am

J. Aldridge:

Still a good call, OK, assuming of course he picks Elna.

5.1.2009 12:13am

Kedar Bhatia (mail) (www):

Show-off.

5.1.2009 12:22am

Gilbert (mail):

nominate Kerr!

5.1.2009 12:44am

theobromophile (www):

Prof. Kerr: your crystal ball would have been correct, but for the superseding issue of Specter's defection from the GOP and the change that the recount has wrought on the MN Senate seat. The GOP is down two Senators from 04 November, and the Dems now have a filibuster-proof majority.

5.1.2009 12:45am

Eds:

I thought Kagan was openly gay, which would seem pretty important. Is this not true?

5.1.2009 1:03am

Oren:

Sotomayor works on more levels and is a heck of a moderate.

Then again, he might want to save her for replacing a conservative.

5.1.2009 9:23am

Kerr May Still Be Right:

Your prediction could still turn out to be right. The WH is responding to inquiries by stating that Souter has not formally informed the WH of his intent to resign. If the intent is not formally conveyed until June, then you could technically claim to be accurate.

5.1.2009 12:31pm

Arturito:

That's the problem with old-style analog crystal balls. You must assess the time of year by unreliable methods, such as the color of the leaves in the trees and the size of the little lambs in the fields. Allow me to sell you my newest digital crystal ball upgrade that will give you a read-out of the exact time and date of your prediction in glorious red digits like those of the bombs in James Bond movies. It would be cheap at double the price. Just imagine, a single correct prediction could recoup the small price of the upgrade many times over.

I also have a wifi interface if you are intested.

5.1.2009 3:13pm

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