Let Marianne, Goddess of Liberty

smile upon the protestors. But like you, I have grave fears.

(Update: This op-ed by Jim Hoagland at the Washington Post captures my own overall view pretty well.)

I have no special expertise on Iran and so am only able to add my deep concern, sympathy, and support to the brave people in the streets seeking change in Iran. I also do understand that, from the US government's point of view, it all looks ... complicated. As indeed it is; I am far from indifferent to the concerns of realism and unanticpated consequences of events in places we barely understand.

Still, at this moment, I would hope that the United States government would not only support the specific rights of the protestors to peaceful assembly and free expression - but that it would say unequivocally that the United States stands for liberty and with those who seek it. Is that really so controversial or so hard?

Unable to sleep last night, I found myself picking up two books. The first is a now nearly forgotten Hungarian novel - yet one of the most compelling on the events of the European 20th century, George Konrad's The Loser (1982). I found myself reading the chapters on the Hungarian Revolution, its failure and the aftermath. But of course, the core of the Hungarian Revolution, as the chapter notes, is that it was a revolt less against one's own regime than against an outside imperial power, the Soviet Union.

The second is a book of poetry - short epigrams, passages, sketches from a journal - to which I have often returned in my life, Rene Char's Leaves of Hypnos (1946), his private journal from his years as a Resistance fighter in the Second World War. When I say Resistance fighter, I don't mean one of the "brave" French writers of those years, risking a 'no' from the censor, I mean someone who fought for years, rising to become the commander in charge of reconnaissance of that zone of southern France at the time of D-Day. (The translation to which I have linked at Amazon is by the very fine American poet, Cid Corman.) I found myself drawn to this passage, No. 22:

TO THE PRUDENT: It is snowing on the maquis and there's a perpetual chase after us. You whose house does not weep, with whom avarice crushes love, in the succession of hot days, your fire is only a male nurse. Too late. Your cancer has spoken. The country of your birth has no more powers.

The original French, sorry for the lack of diacritical marks:

AUX PRUDENTS: Il neige sur le maquis et c'est contre nous chasse perpetuelle. Vous dont la maison ne pleure pas, chez qui l'avarice ecrase l'amour, dans la succession des journees chaudes, votre feu n'est qu'un garde-malade. Trop tard. Votre cancer a parle. Le pays natal n'a plus de pouvoirs.

Let Marianne, the goddess of liberty, smile upon the protestors. Yet I hope I will not find myself going back to another passage from Char's poems, one of the justly most famous:

Bitter future, bitter future, a dance amongst the rosebushes ....

Update: Scrolling through the comments, it seems I wasn't sufficiently clear on a couple of points. First, I do take the realist concerns entirely seriously; that's why I raised the Hungarian revolution, and The Loser in particular, which has much discussion of the costs of failing. However, I am not convinced that raising liberty as something the United States supports as such is inconsistent with prudent realism. I do not think that general value is addressed by raising specific freedoms such as assembly or expression, as President Obama has done.

Second, I do not suggest that the administration acts in bad faith in making these difficult judgment calls between realism and idealism; I might well make them differently, but that's what presidents have to do. It is a function of being president, one might recall, however, that applied, or ought to have applied, equally to Bush, Clinton, and those who came before.

Third, if this is not the moment for the President to speak forthrightly on a general American commitment to liberty in the aspirations of oppressed people in the world - and I agree, it might not be, or at least that is a judgment an administration could certainly make in good faith - still, I should want to know under what conditions, if any, it would be appropriate for the President of the United States to express such a sentiment. I do not mean by this a merely general expression of support for liberty as a universal value, but rather that the United States is and has been committed to liberty as a value, and that it should be. If now is not the moment, as it possibly might not be - it would nonetheless be helpful to have some idea of the baseline for when it would be.

TonyR:
A few observations about the situation in Iran that strike me as strange:
- Mousavi and Ahmadinejad are quite similar politically from what I have read and seen. There is little if any evidence that Mousavi would represent anything more that minimal change if elected.
- The protests in Los Angeles by the Iranian/Persian community in favor of Mousavi are confusing. Mousavi has confirmed that the community that fled Iran in the late 1970s are not welcome back (to say the least).
- I have yet to see any evidence of vote rigging on the part of the Iranian government by these protesters, media, or the foreign governments that seem to all be putting in their two cents (besides ours, of course). The argument that we/everyone I know overwhelmingly voted for Mousavi and the results don't reflect this is not very compelling. Young urban people prone to protest don't usually reflect the nation as a whole whether it be in Tehran or New York City.

Much of this is the fault of the Iranian government for not having a more transparent election process. However, I still would like to have something more than accusations. I think, gasp, Obama is handling the situation quite well by saying very little. If vote rigging is exposed then the best thing would be for us to have stayed silent. The only thing that would allow the Iranian government to survive if vote rigging was exposed was if they could rally people around the flag by saying we were meddling.
6.20.2009 6:42pm
Jam:
I have not followed the protests in Iran. Whatever the truth of what is going on over there we will not find out ... at lest not for a while.

And what do folks think would happen in these good ole ewe es of ay if huge crowds gather without a permit, block streets, to protest and the crowd does not disperse when ordered to do so by the cops?
6.20.2009 7:03pm
rosetta's stones:
The key is that Khamanei was forced to come out and speak, with Ahmadinnerjacket sitting in the audience listening along with the rest of us. That's what's critical, perhaps the most critical event recently, to include the election and demonstrations following. People around the world are seeing who's picking these candidates, both of them. That's what's gotta change, and the "opposition" guy may or may not be a vehicle to that change.

Good on the demonstrators, and good on Obama for speaking out for their right to speak out:


The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion.

Martin Luther King once said - “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” I believe that. The international community believes that. And right now, we are bearing witness to the Iranian peoples’ belief in that truth, and we will continue to bear witness.

6.20.2009 7:04pm
Jam:
lest => least

and in case y'all are wondering, ewe es of ay ==> U S of A
6.20.2009 7:05pm
BerkeleyBeetle:
TonyR
I think you're working off an out-of-date set of circumstances. A week ago, Mousavi could be seen as politically similar to Ahmadinejad, but he's now "the opposition leader," and the political realities of that have trumped whatever he was before.

Iranian-Americans do not protest because they want to go back to Iran. They protest because many of them still have family in Iran, and even those that don't will still see Iranians as their own people.

The purpose of an election is not just to pick a new leader. It's to facilitate the transfer of power peacefully, and to do that, it needs to convince the losers that they lost. So saying that the Iranian government is at "fault" while insisting that we should wait for evidence of whether or not the vote was rigged is missing the point. The election was illegitimate, whoever ended up with more votes. Even America's vote audit procedures don't begin with the assumption that the vote was correct, they look for evidence to that effect. (Otherwise, why do an audit?)
6.20.2009 7:16pm
Falsifiabilitor (mail):

If anyone is interested in helping, you might want to try:
Why We Protest - IRAN
http://iran.whyweprotest.net/

I've found #IranElection on Twitter to be a source of up to the second information:
Twitter - #IranElection
http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23IranElection
6.20.2009 7:21pm
interruptus:
Hopefully things will turn out well, though I don't have that much optimism for that. Civil wars are always bloody, and asymmetric ones where one side has the people but the other side has the troops, even more so.

I grudgingly think it's best that the US stay as uninvolved as possible, though. I don't see much likely outcome from stronger US rhetoric on the subject (much less actual involvement) than just providing nationalist ammunition for middle-of-the-road people to rally around their leader against the external threat. Taking sides and making it plain that the US prefers a revolution to succeed makes it easier to paint the Iranian protesters as some sort of 5th column for the Americans, whose victory would serve US interests.

I think focusing on denunciations of government atrocities is better. European countries should also take the lead on that more, because countries like Germany that are major Iranian trade partners have more leverage, and are harder for the Ayatollah to use a bogeymen.

It is interesting, though, how the Bush->Obama change is really making these despots squirm, because Obama is popular with their own people and much more difficult than Bush to hold up as bogeyman. Did you notice how the Khamenei speech spent a bunch of time attacking Bill Clinton (even bringing up Waco!) in an attempt to try to head that off, and convince his people that the Democrats are bad too and it wasn't just Bush/Reagan/Republicans?
6.20.2009 7:23pm
Falsifiabilitor:
jeffjaafar "On 9/11, the world said we were all Americans. Tonight, we're all Iranian" #IranElection
6.20.2009 8:05pm
Kenneth Anderson:
I acknowledge the force of the realist comments here, and certainly I don't suggest the administration is acting in bad faith. I am less enamored of the moral equivalence that Jam, above, implies. The implied moral equivalence arises from taking as the starting point the question of street protests without a permit, etc., etc., with the implication that one can start from the question of violations of law in the protests being the same because the regimes are, on the prior, substantive question of the rule of law, equivalent. Certainly I don't accept that and don't think that makes me all - what was the charming phrase? - 'ewe es of ay'? But perhaps I am being overly sensitive.
6.20.2009 8:07pm
Sharanskian:
Amen. Somebody should really ask Obama this question:

"I would hope that the United States government...would say unequivocally that the United States stands for liberty and with those who seek it. Is that really so controversial or so hard?"
6.20.2009 8:07pm
gab:

Still, at this moment, I would hope that the United States government would not only support the specific rights of the protestors to peaceful assembly and free expression - but that it would say unequivocally that the United States stands for liberty and with those who seek it. Is that really so controversial or so hard?


It's not enough to merely say "is that really so controversial or so hard." The question that should also be answered in this post is, what good would it do?

Prof. Anderson, what good would you see coming out of a statement made in "support," either for the Iranian people or for the US position?
6.20.2009 8:10pm
Public_Defender (mail):
It seems that Obama has been doing an excellent job of balancing idealism and realism. He helped make this possible by not being an anti-Islamic belligerent jerk and by showing respect for the Iranian people and their culture. Now, he is showing restraint when we need restraint, and idealism when we need idealism.

After sixteen years of Clinton and W, it's nice to again have an adult in charge of foreign policy.
6.20.2009 8:12pm
Thackery:
As an antidote to Public_Defender's absurd and immoral remarks, you might want to read some classic Steyn:

The polite explanation for Barack Obama’s diffidence on Iran is that he doesn’t want to give the mullahs the excuse to say the Great Satan is meddling in Tehran’s affairs. So the president’s official position is that he’s modestly encouraged by the regime’s supposed interest in investigating some of the allegations of fraud. Also, he’s heartened to hear that OJ is looking for the real killers. “You've seen in Iran,” explained President Obama, “some initial reaction from the Supreme Leader that indicates he understands the Iranian people have deep concerns about the election . . . ”

“Supreme Leader”? I thought that was official house style for Barack Obama at Newsweek and MSNBC. But no. It’s also the title held by Ayatollah Khamenei for the last couple of decades. If it sounds odd from the lips of an American president, that’s because none has ever been as deferential in observing the Islamic republic’s dictatorial protocol. Like President Obama’s deep, ostentatious bow to the king of Saudi Arabia, it signals a fresh start in our relations with the Muslim world, “mutually respectful” and unilaterally fawning.
6.20.2009 9:10pm
byomtov (mail):
What gab said. The question is not whether making the statement you describe is hard. It's not.

The question is whether it is wise. Like it or not, there's a good argument that such a statement would do more harm than good for the protesters' cause.

Should Obama make feelgood statements at the expense of damaging Iranian democracy?
6.20.2009 9:11pm
ll (mail):
I object.

From the most authoritatively authoritative of all the authoritative authorities http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_(goddess):


Classical examples

The ancient Roman goddess Libertas was honored during the second Punic War by a temple erected on the Aventine Hill in Rome by the father of Tiberius Gracchus. A statue in her honor was also raised by Clodius on the site of Marcus Tullius Cicero's house after it had been razed. The figure also resembles Sol Invictus, the Roman god of sun.


Neoclassical references

In 1793, during the French Revolution, the Notre Dame de Paris cathedral was turned into a "Cult of Reason" and for a time "Lady Liberty" replaced the Virgin Mary on several altars.

National embodiments of Liberty include Britannia in the United Kingdom, "Liberty Enlightening the World," commonly known as the Statue of Liberty[1] in the United States of America, and Marianne in France.

Embodiments of the goddess Liberty in the United States of America include Columbia, which is yet another personification of the goddess Liberty.


It appears to me that "Marianne, Goddess of Liberty" is a French thing, and much much worse, is the "Goddess of Liberty" that gave us the French Revolution, The Reign of Terror, and the Napoleonic State that terrorized Europe.

I, for one, do not wish that "Marianne, Goddess of Liberty" smiles on the Iranians, because they will surely end up worse than they are.
6.20.2009 9:33pm
ArthurKirkland:
What would be absurd or immoral would be devoting any serious attention to the protests of those -- such as Steyn, Kristol, Ledeen, Abrams -- whose brand of impractical ideological extremism caused the United States to misfire so counterproductively throughout the Middle East (and Central America, and South America, etc.) for decades.

The United States does not appear to be turning a deaf ear to pleas from those arranging the protests in Iran, because those people do not appear to be asking for American help (which, against the background of relevant history, would not be surprising).

I root for the good guys in Iran -- to the extent they are identifiable -- and against the authoritarian religious zealots. I also root against more counterproductive American adventurism in that part of the world. When it comes to "helping" Iran, we seem to have done quite enough for a while.
6.20.2009 9:54pm
Kenneth Anderson:
II:

I thought carefully about this. Then I recalled the history of the various Marianne's in France, including 2000's Laetitia Casta as Marianne, then thought about this N-quiteSFW, and there you have it.
6.20.2009 9:58pm
Desiderius:
Interruptus,

"Hopefully things will turn out well, though I don't have that much optimism for that. Civil wars are always bloody, and asymmetric ones where one side has the people but the other side has the troops, even more so.

I grudgingly think it's best that the US stay as uninvolved as possible, though"

Except for that whole collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe thing. Sheesh, has it been so long ago that people have forgotten? Or were you not paying attention due to acute cognitive dissonance?

Pretty convenient the claim that we should stay uninvolved. This neo-isolationism from the so-called Left is a sight to behold.
6.20.2009 10:09pm
Sara:
Ofcourse, one reason the US is in the problematic place it is and it would likely do more harm than good to be more confrontational is what it did in Iran in the 1950's by overthrowing the democratically, elected government.

I also, don't see the difference between what Obama said, professor, and what you say, he should say?
6.20.2009 10:12pm
Fedya (www):
Public Defender wrote:
After sixteen years of Clinton and W, it's nice to again have an adult in charge of foreign policy.


Maybe he can give the Iranians a "reset" button so that they can start anew as though nothing ever happened, the way he had Hillary give the Russians one. Sadly our politicians of all stripes insist on engaging in policy-by-PR-stunt.

I suppose Obama can solve all the domestic problems by pressing his "easy" button while he's at it....
6.20.2009 10:13pm
Desiderius:
We'll be scapegoated whatever we do, including nothing at all. Or rather there will be those who attempt to scapegoat us. In the long run they will fail in direct proportion to the extent to which our actions are principled and those principles true.

It is not only the opinions of the xenophobes that matter. Not in the short run, as it happens, and even less in the long.
6.20.2009 10:14pm
interruptus:

Except for that whole collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe thing.

The collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe was more of an independence movement, of countries freeing themselves from the Russian Empire, than it was an internal revolution. Sure, the governments they overthrew were nominally domestic, but they were propped up by Russia, in some cases pretty directly, by Russian tanks. The exception is in Russia itself, of course, but there actually wasn't much of a "collapse" at all there except in name, as evidenced by the fact that the KGB still runs the country.

If we were talking about an independence movement here, I could see US support being useful.
6.20.2009 10:24pm
Tom952 (mail):
"...would say unequivocally that the United States stands for liberty and with those who seek it. Is that really so controversial or so hard?"

Well, in the Iranian theocracy, liberty and those who seek it are enemies of the regime that rules Iran for God. What could be more important? They do not see things the way we see things. I do not think a theocracy is a desirable form of government, but I also do not think it is prudent for the U.S. to take action that would antagonize Iran unless it somehow serves a clear national interest.
6.20.2009 10:29pm
The River Temoc (mail):
...I would hope that the United States government would not only support the specific rights of the protestors to peaceful assembly and free expression - but that it would say unequivocally that the United States stands for liberty and with those who seek it. Is that really so controversial or so hard?

It is ironic that you write these words one moment before talking about Hungary in 1956, and one minute after admitting you have no expertise on Iran.

During the 1956 uprising in Hungary, and to some extent during the 1991 shi'a uprising in Iraq, the U.S. took a position much along the lines of what you propose — "we stand with the revolutionaries." The protesters took this as a sign that the U.S. would intervene with force.

But of course the U.S. was in no position to deliver on this expectation, and the revolutionaries felt betrayed.

All people are perhaps allergic to foreign powers intervening in domestic political struggles — but Iranians especially so.

The Tobacco Rebellion of 1890, which was one of the first times the traditionally quiescent shi'a clergy entered the political arena, came about when the shah granted the British an unpopular tobacco concession. Russia supported the monarchy during the constitutional revolution of 1906. Then there is the whole issue of the U.S. role in overthrowing Mussadiq and the illegitimacy it lend to the shah. The Soviet Union also tried to influence the course of the revolution after 1979 by supporting the Tudeh Party; when this became public knowledge, the Tudeh was purged.

The common thread in all these events seems to be that foreign powers who intervene in Iranian politics at revolutionary moments do so at their peril — the intervention usually backfires.

Recall one lesson from a much darker revolutionary moment. During the summer of 1918 (July, IIRC), Lenin was on the verge of seizing power in Petrograd. The revelation that he was on the German payroll, effectively acting as an agent of Imperial Germany, prevented him from doing so (temporarily, alas).

In the recent revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, the ancien regime had but one leg to stand on: "all those protesters are the agents of nefarious foreign NGOs seeking to destabilize our country." But President Bush tread lightly, in a way very reminiscent of Obama today, immediately discrediting the dictators' position.

Proclamations of solidarity with the Iranian protesters may salve your conscience. But they will do no good, and might well inflict a lot of damage. (It is unsurprising, therefore, that some news reports claim the protestors are asking the U.S. *not* to issue such proclamations.) Do you really want the U.S. to play into the hands of the likes of Putin and Khamanei?

If Iranians see the uprisings to be authentically Iranian, they are more likely to succeed.
6.20.2009 10:51pm
Bama 1L:
Is that the Corman translation? It's what anyone would get with a French-English dictionary, and rendering "garde-malade" as "male nurse" is just odd.
6.20.2009 10:52pm
The River Temoc (mail):
Maybe he can give the Iranians a "reset" button so that they can start anew as though nothing ever happened, the way he had Hillary give the Russians one. Sadly our politicians of all stripes insist on engaging in policy-by-PR-stunt.

And yet, Fedya, you remember the reset button.

Would you have been able to quote chapter and verse from some kind of bland "General Communique on Mutaul Cooperation between the United States of America and the Russian Federation"?
6.20.2009 10:55pm
Kenneth Anderson:
Bama 1L: It is the Corman translation - there is a new translation out, much more literal, and possibly I'm simply wedded to the Corman translation, but I think closer to the spirit of the source. I don't think Char was very good with English, but he seemed to like the Corman, at least that's what a curator of the Char exhibit at the National Library in Paris told me a couple of years ago.

But you know how it is with translations you read when you are a teenager - they get intertwined with your feelings about the original, even if you've read the original - I can't help but love the Montcrieff translation of the Red and the Black, even though it really does feel utterly unlike the sharp staccato writing of the original.
6.20.2009 11:03pm
Desiderius:
River Temoc,

"If Iranians see the uprisings to be authentically Iranian, they are more likely to succeed."

Of course. But the protesters are not protesting because the see the Supreme Leader as insufficiently Iranian, are they? We would do well to support them in their grievances, to the extent to which those grievances appeal to universal (ok, pomos, transversal) values.

I should think that speaking to those values should be sufficient, as I perceive Obama to be attempting to do, with less alacrity than I might prefer.
6.20.2009 11:08pm
MCM (mail):
It is ironic that you write these words one moment before talking about Hungary in 1956, and one minute after admitting you have no expertise on Iran.


It's a long tradition on volokh for the posters to admit they have no particular knowledge of the topic at hand and then immediately criticize, impliedly or directly, Democratic politicians for their positions.

My personal favorite was "Hey look someone wrote an article about privatizing trademark. I don't know anything about trademark, but privatizing stuff is good, right?"
6.20.2009 11:16pm
Bama 1L:
Hmm. I do not think there is a more literal way to translate that passage. The difference must be elsewhere in the volume.

"Garde" is noun whose masculine and feminine forms are identical. A "garde-malade" is a sick-minder--someone who helps you go to the bathroom and get dressed but not someone who helps you get better, because you're past that; an in-home caregiver--and is usually female. For instance some dictionaries, feeling obliged to give every noun a gender, will list "garde du corps" (bodyguard) as masculine and "garde-malade" and "garde-enfant" (babysitter) as feminine.

TO THE PRUDENT: It's snowing in the back-country and we are always hunted. You whose house doesn't weep, in whom greed has crushed love: during all those hot days, your "fire" was just a sick-minder. Too late. Your cancer has spoken. Your native land has no more strength.
6.20.2009 11:18pm
TonyR:
BerkeleyBeetle-

You refer to the election as illegitimate. Why? In my earlier post I mentioned that I was perplexed by the opposition, media, and many countries' comments that the election was rigged or otherwise unfair. I've seen no evidence or even reports of ballot boxes missing, people being turned away from polls, people being intimidated from going to the polls, etc. Mousawi was allowed to campaign freely. I agree that there are aspects of the election process in Iran that seem odd too us such as government newspaper endorsements or religious endorsements but these don't alone make for a "rigged" election. In fact, there wasn't a single news report election day that mentioned any irregularities and Iran was blanketed with foreign reporters eagerly looking for such a story. Iran is a conservative, religious country that just re-elected a conservative, religious president. The L.A. Times headline currently reads "Streets of Tehran erupt in fiery chaos" not "Streets of Iran erupt in fiery chaos." The Times then goes on to mention that "thousands continue to protest" in "two protest sites" and that crowds continue to battle police although the police aren't seen in any of the pictures. Wow. I live in L.A. That's a normal Saturday night. I have my doubts about the election but I would still like to have some evidence.
6.20.2009 11:28pm
Bob from Ohio (mail):

He helped make this possible by not being an anti-Islamic belligerent jerk and by showing respect for the Iranian people and their culture.


He had nothing, nothing to do with it.

The regime in Iran caused this by being so blatant in their fake results. If they had said Ahole got 43% and Mousavi 35% and there would be a runoff, there would have been grumbling but since those results are plausible, no mass movement.

The regime got greedy or stupid. Or both.

The regime stirred embers that have been smoking for far longer than January 20, 2009 or the Cairo speech.

After 30 years of repressive and incompetent government, a sizable number of people in Iran had enough.

O had nothing to do with what has happened in the last week. It would have happened with George Bush or Bill Clinton or John McCain or Sarah Palin or Joe Biden.
6.20.2009 11:31pm
Dave N (mail):
Tony R,

Two pieces of evidence caused at least some people to cry fowl--at least from what I have read.

1) There was a very fast count. My understanding is that Iran uses paper ballots, which means it should be slow and meticulous. That the results were in so soon after the polls closed caused many to suspect fraud.

2) The results didn't make sense. For example, Ahmadinejad carried Mousavi's home town by a landslide, which seems suspicious. It would be akin to Barack Obama carrying Utah. Yes, it is theoretically possible, but just not likely.
6.20.2009 11:59pm
Baseballhead (mail):
O had nothing to do with what has happened in the last week. It would have happened with George Bush or Bill Clinton or John McCain or Sarah Palin or Joe Biden.
Then it's probably a very good thing Obama didn't spend the last few months thundering away at Iran, giving the Mullahs rhetorical ammo against the new American President. (God knows, they invent plenty for themselves.) As you say, the election wasn't about us. Let's not pretend anything Obama could/should say will do any good, so it's silly to criticize him for not saying much at all.
6.21.2009 12:09am
Johnny Canuck (mail):
TonyR:In my earlier post I mentioned that I was perplexed by the opposition, media, and many countries' comments that the election was rigged or otherwise unfair. I've seen no evidence or even reports of ballot boxes missing, people being turned away from polls, people being intimidated from going to the polls, etc


You haven't been paying attention. I have seen claims:
in 130 towns there were more ballots cast than registered voters; truck arrived with 70 ballot boxes- 30 sealed; 40 seal broken- those with seals broken were heavily for incumbent; in Tehran out of ballot papers by mid morning.
6.21.2009 12:12am
Johnny Canuck (mail):
Bob from Ohio:

He helped make this possible by not being an anti-Islamic belligerent jerk and by showing respect for the Iranian people and their culture.

"He had nothing, nothing to do with it."

I believe you are wrong. That Obama was speaking with respect was noticed. Many Iranians didn't wish to be isolated from the international community. Obama was offering negotiations.
Mousavi played on how much better he would do speaking for Iran.
6.21.2009 12:27am
Johnny Canuck (mail):
Bob from Ohio, the following is from Aziz Poonawalla in a posting titled "Iran doesn't need Obama to speak

Let's not forget that Obama has spoken directly to the Iranian people before the election - Obama's Nowruz greeting to the Iranian people was an end-run around the regime and a tangible encouragement for the Iranians to seek change, as this anecdote from an Iranian-American girl visiting family in Tehran illustrates:

Arguably, it was Barack Obama who brought down the virtual wall between Iran and the West with his conciliatory and hopeful Nowruz (Iran's New Year) message on YouTube. I looked on as my friends and family watched his message with adoration in Tehran. "Why can't he be our president", one aunt gushed. It hit a chord, mainly because it made Ahmadinejad look foolish.


I don't think you understand how highly regarded Obama is in other countries. It is what he says when he speaks. It is the tone he uses.

You underestimate the significance of his greeting to Iran, and his Cairo speech. It is hard to characterise him as The Great Satan- he doesnt look or act the part.

He gave Iranians hope that a better President could negotiate with Obama.
6.21.2009 12:52am
interruptus:

It is hard to characterise [Obama] as The Great Satan- he doesnt look or act the part.

This might be why the old refrain of "Death to America!" was, in Khamenei's friday speech, bizarrely changed to "Death to England" (England as 21st-century bogeyman, really?). Also why he spent such a large portion of his speech trying to attack Democrats, while dancing around Obama specifically, spending more time on the Clintons as a way to try to tarnish him by proxy. I mean, when an Iranian Supreme Leader has stooped to complaining about Waco, you know he's on the defensive. I almost wonder if he actually set out to find anti-Democratic-Party propaganda, and came across some militia-type right-wing stuff, which would explain how Waco, of all things of the past 20 years he could've chosen, found its way into his speech.
6.21.2009 1:06am
Johnny Canuck (mail):
Possibly, but Britain has even longer history of interfering in Iran; moreover, the BBC Persian service is apparently still heard in Iran. Waco, was the most recent example he could use of US killing its own citizens.
6.21.2009 1:35am
BerkeleyBeetle:
TonyR-

As others have noted, there was evidence of vote-rigging. But my point was a different one: An election is legitimate only if those conducting the election do so in a way that allows the electorate to conclude that is the results reflect the vote. Otherwise, it's just what some guy in the government says, and has no legitimacy beyond the power of that guy. It's the same as not holding an election. If no one is allowed to look for evidence of vote-rigging, none will be found, but that doesn't mean we should sit back without judgment while saying "Well, how do we know the vote is rigged?"

Initially, the opposition demanded that the government prove that a legitimate election took place. The government's response didn't give them evidence that the vote was rigged, it showed that the government was not interested in a legitimate election, and the Iranian people responded to that. Who actually had more votes just doesn't matter anymore.
6.21.2009 2:05am
rosetta's stones:

Proclamations of solidarity with the Iranian protesters may salve your conscience. But they will do no good, and might well inflict a lot of damage. (It is unsurprising, therefore, that some news reports claim the protestors are asking the U.S. *not* to issue such proclamations.)


Agreed. Obama is too young to remember, as are most reading this post no doubt, but in the mid 70's college campus sidewalks across this land were spraypainted with "Down with the Shah", nicely stenciled markings, very tasteful, and all the tasteful pink academics were on board with the effort to remove this obviously evil man, emblematic of US imperialism, scourge of all mankind... it was the good fight... an extension of the good fight... the one they seemingly still haven't stopped fighting.

We see how that all worked out... human waves died as martyrs... small children sent out into the minefields in front of the assault... so no surprise that it's taken a generation to raise up a generation to speak out in Iran... as we're seeing now.

The mullahs seized power in a revolution. Be careful what you wish for, and be especially careful of what you actively support.

Obama's support for free assembly and speech are enough here.
6.21.2009 9:57am
corneille1640 (mail):
I have not read through this thread, so I apologize if the point has been advanced by another commentator. I would just like to say that while I think I disagree with Mr. Anderson, I find his thoughts quite insightful and worth considering.

Mr. Anderson's post is definitely more substantive than other conspirators' posts at Volokh Conspiracy that express "utter disgust" at the administration's approach to this issue. Also, I'd like to thank Mr. Anderson for choosing to leave his post open to comments.
6.21.2009 11:20am
Jam:
Mr. Anderson: I guess I am more cynical than you. A long time ago I reached the conlusion that peace police officers, who have become a para-military system BTW, will shoot protestors if ordered to do so.

Here is a link to an old piece by Greenwald (HT LewRockwell blog): here
6.21.2009 12:01pm
Jam:
I do wish all in Iran the freedom they wish to attain but we elect people to our Federal government to govern in their sphere of authority. Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc are not mentioned in our Constitution. We have no business in their internal affairs. We only need to be prepared to act in our defense.

1) Assuming there was pervasive fraud, then what?
2) Assuming there was no pervasive fraud?

Either way I can see how peaceful protests would beneficial to Iran and these uSA. I can also see how violent protests would benefit Iran and these uSA. And I do not put it beyond Iran and these uSA to use provocators. I just do not know enough. I read somewhere that the opposition leader was involved with creating Hizzbolah in Lebanon. True? I do not know.

If these uSA must say anything then let it be a statement that encourage restraint on all sides, that violence not be used, that protestors respect property and the government not abuse peaceful protests.

We have fraud in our elections here too. Pervasive enough to alter a, say, Federal election? I do not know. I do know that the process to try to invalidate an election due fraud renders the excercise worthless.

Remember old jokes about Florida borrowing Chicago voting booths and Chicago politicians winning the election? How about the origins of "do you need a roof on your church" or "walking money" or "little Jose crying because his father came out the grave to voe for LBJ but did not pay him a visit?"
6.21.2009 12:24pm
drunkdriver:
Jam,

the protests are about a lot more than the elections now. The grievances have broadened, first to protest the brutality of the reaction to the first protests, and second to air general dissatisfaction with the autocratic regime.

Like others here I sympathize enormously with the protesters (the clip of "Neda" being shot really got to me), and sadly realize there's nothing we can do for them but to express our sympathy- and even that might backfire.
6.21.2009 12:56pm
jukeboxgrad (mail):
rosetta:

Obama is too young to remember, as are most reading this post no doubt, but in the mid 70's college campus sidewalks across this land were spraypainted with "Down with the Shah", nicely stenciled markings, very tasteful, and all the tasteful pink academics were on board with the effort to remove this obviously evil man, emblematic of US imperialism, scourge of all mankind.


You might be too young to remember, but the Shah imposed extreme brutality: "torture methods [that] included electric shock, whipping, beating, inserting broken glass and pouring boiling water into the rectum, tying weights to the testicles, and the extraction of teeth and nails." As Joe Klein has pointed out:

There was the U.S. support for the Shah, who ran a regime every bit as repressive and arguably more brutal than the Mullahs


Klein goes on to say:

There was the U.S. support for Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war--and this remains a bleeding wound in Iran: I spoke with a woman in South Tehran last week whose husband is incapacitated by the poison gas Saddam used during the war (and which all Iranians, including those in the streets, are convinced was supplied by the Americans). There are many chemical victims of the war in Iran, and many war dead, a constant reminder of U.S. meddling.


Reagan and Rummy assisted Saddam with lots of useful goodies, like cluster bombs, anthrax, bubonic plague and deadly pesticides (deadly against humans, that is).

Iranians remember the way we supported the Shah, and Saddam, even if we don't. So the best thing we can do for the protesters is shut up, and try to learn something from our mistakes.
6.21.2009 1:59pm
Jam:
Juke: I know of some of what the Savak did, for 20+ years, and these uSA had a hand in setting up the regime that did it. Let's not get in this now, though.

If protests erupt in Saudi Arabia, even smaller in scale, the Sudis would react in an incredibly brutal way. We need consistency on how we treat other governments. I have have heard that the Saudis have used machine guns against protestors. True? I do not know but if they did no one would be surprised. It is not our business what Suadi Arabia's government does within the confines of their borders but if condemn Iran we must also condemn Saudi Arabian electoral frauds ... oh, wait, they do not have elections began holding some sort of election.

Is Iran a more open society than Saudi Arabia? I think so but the house of Saud is our bud.
6.21.2009 5:25pm
Repulsed:
Oh my, the Fascist Left is in full bloom with this comment thread. Why don't the majority of you just go over and shoot a few protesters yourself?

Shame on volokh.com.
6.21.2009 8:37pm
MCM (mail):
Oh my, the Fascist Left is in full bloom with this comment thread. Why don't the majority of you just go over and shoot a few protesters yourself?


Why don't you do the world an even bigger favor and shoot yourself in the head before your brain manages to find the "Post Comment" button again?
6.22.2009 1:08am
jukeboxgrad (mail):
the house of Saud is our bud.


That's for sure.

===================
shoot yourself in the head


I hope he does it with one of these.
6.22.2009 2:02am
Andrew Myers:
I thought one of the best arguments that the election was rigged was the statistical analysis reported in this Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post.
The upshot: just by looking at the last two digits in the official reported totals, one can determine that the numbers were likely (>99% certain) completely fabricated. The election was stolen not by hard-to-execute measures like fake ballots, but just by writing in different numbers!
6.22.2009 9:10am
rosetta's stones:

I know of some of what the Savak did, for 20+ years, and these uSA had a hand in setting up the regime that did it. Let's not get in this now, though.


And the USA, specifically Jimmuh Cahtuh and that blithering idiot Brzezinski, had a hand in setting up the mullahs, and then encouraging Saddam Hussein to frickin invade them after their creation. Call it: Foreign policy by ADD.

For half again as long as the Shah, the mullahs have been prime motivators and paymasters for international terrorism and holy war, in addition to their internal heinousness, the results of which we're seeing on YouTube now. A bad situation made much, much worse. Thanks, Jimmuh.

I agree with you, best not to get involved heavily in this process.
6.22.2009 9:30am
[insert here] delenda est:
I find it awfully hard to reconcile accounts of Obama's magnificent personal popularity in the ME, and the argument that he is right not to support the protestors.

Anyone else struggling?

And, finally, who cares if we are used as scapegoats by Khamenei? When since WWII has there been a facist in the world who did not blame America and the Jews? Do we really credit the Iranian people with so little intelligence - ah, of course, they will cry, mine lying eyes doth deceive, the Americans are shooting my friends!

He doesn't have to 'take sides', but he could call for a recount and condemn the use of irregulars, the blatant suppresion of free speech and the barbarism. He could even say that any regime which resorts to the same against its own people is not legitimate at all.
6.22.2009 12:01pm
rosetta's stones:
Maybe Obama should threaten to sic the WH press corps on 'em?
6.22.2009 12:09pm
Jam:
jukeboxgrad: he he he

delenda: I agree mostly with your also blaming the mullah. At some point they take ownership of their problems. But you cannot easily discard 20+ years of KGB Stasi style repression.

As to how our own governments would react to massive protests here, LewRockwell provided a link to wikipdia's Free Speech Zones. Let's take the beam off our own eyes first.
6.22.2009 2:20pm
davod (mail):
"But you cannot easily discard 20+ years of KGB Stasi style repression."

20 plus years? Are you sure.

Free speech zones are not kill zones/beat the crap out of the opposition zones.
6.22.2009 6:32pm
davod (mail):
Just maybe the US response is based upon Obama's world view. Andrew McCarthy's Understanding Obama on Iran elaborates (Just remember this is based upon Obama's politics. Politics conveniently left out of the election).

"The fact is that, as a man of the hard Left, Obama is more comfortable with a totalitarian Islamic regime than he would be with a free Iranian society. In this he is no different from his allies like the Congressional Black Caucus and Bill Ayers, who have shown themselves perfectly comfortable with Castro and Chàvez. Indeed, he is the product of a hard-Left tradition that apologized for Stalin and was more comfortable with the Soviets than the anti-Communists (and that, in Soros parlance, saw George Bush as a bigger terrorist than bin Laden).

Because of obvious divergences (inequality for women and non-Muslims, hatred of homosexuals) radical Islam and radical Leftism are commonly mistaken to be incompatible. In fact, they have much more in common than not, especially when it comes to suppression of freedom, intrusiveness in all aspects of life, notions of "social justice," and their economic programs. (On this, as in so many other things, Anthony Daniels should be required reading — see his incisive New English Review essay, "There Is No God but Politics" , comparing Marx and Muslim Brotherhood theorist Sayyid Qutb.) The divergences between radical Islam and radical Leftism are much overrated — "equal rights" and "social justice" are always more rally-cry propaganda than real goals for totalitarians, and hatred of certain groups is always a feature of their societies."
6.22.2009 7:04pm
Jam:

20 plus years? Are you sure.


I was working from memory. wikipia says Savak was in business from 1957 to 1979:



Free speech zones are not kill zones/beat the crap out of the opposition zones.


What do you think would happen if the ewes get out of the pen, en masse? Silly Iranian mullahs. If they only had setup a Free Speech Zone they could have avoided bad PR.
6.22.2009 10:16pm
[insert here] delenda est:
This thread needs a reality check.

Obama is profoundly uncomfortable with Iranian mullahs, this is self-evident since for starters they have a religious injunction against recognising his official awesomestness. More seriously, it actually is self-evident.

And anyone who holds Jam's views on America should really live somewhere else. God knows I would not live in such a country as s/he describes.
6.23.2009 11:30am
Jam:
It is Mr. to you.

Actually, if I was king you would like it very much.

Would you care to answer the question, What do you think would happen if protestors, en masse and against police orders, decide to leave the reserved Free Speech Zone?

If I become convinced there is a "foreign monster" that that needs destroying, I will first arrange to take care of my family and financial house (it is my first oath) and then I will volunteer and go into battle. And I do not mean joining the uSA's military. I will go and join those on the ground. I will not grab your son and enslave him in my quest.

Would you accord my sons the same courtesy?
Would you also join the battle of your own free if you believe in a cause strong enough?

BTW, I do have causes that I am perfectly willing to go to war over. Do you?
6.24.2009 10:28am

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