Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling is contemplating a run for the Senate seat just vacated by Ted Kennedy's passing. And Newsweek's Mark Starr claims that he could actually win. At this point, Schilling is downplaying the possibility of running, but refuses to rule it out. Although I'm a huge fan of Schilling the baseball player, I am skeptical that he would be an effective senator. The viability of Schilling's potential candidacy and others like it is largely a result of widespread political ignorance.
If he does run, Schilling would instantly become a viable candidate - at least as viable as any conservative could be in strongly Democratic Massachusetts. Why would a candidate with no prior political experience and little apparent expertise in public policy be taken serious by voters? Because of his name recognition as a recent Red Sox star. Many former athletes and other celebrities have successfully turned their earlier fame into a political career: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bill Bradley, Steve Largent, baseball Hall of Famer Jim Bunning, and others. Other candidates with few or no qualifications win simply because they are members of prominent families. Ironically, Ted Kennedy - the man Schilling might try to replace - initially won his seat largely because of his own family connections. As his 1962 opponent put it, "[i]f your name were Edward Moore [instead of Edward Moore Kennedy], your candidacy would be a joke." George W. Bush is, of course, another politician who gained high office in large part on the strength of family connections.
Celebrity status and family ties would not be major political assets in a world where voters were highly knowledgeable about candidates and their qualifications. Rational, well-informed voters would be unlikely to pick a candidate with few or no qualifications for the job over an opponent with genuine public policy expertise. However, the real-world electorate is "rationally ignorant," and most voters knows very little about candidates. Moreover, voters also tend to do a poor job of evaluating what little information they do have. As a result, celebrity candidates and scions of famous families enjoy a major advantage thanks to their superior name recognition. Political ignorance causes political nepotism, and also gives a leg up to sports and entertainment celebrities. Although a few celebrity candidates went on to become outstanding political leaders (e.g. - Jack Kemp), on balance the electoral success of celebrities and members of famous families probably reduces the average quality of our office-holders.
This problem is very far from the worst result of political ignorance, But it is yet another way in which ignorance reduces the quality of government.
UPDATE: Some commenters cite Ronald Reagan as an example of a celebrity who became a highly effective political leader. But Reagan was involved in political activism for some 15 years before he ran for governor of California in 1966. Unlike Schilling and others who try to go straight from nonpolitical celebrity into electoral politics, Reagan had quite extensive political experience before seeking public office.
1. Integrity
2. Reasonable intelligence
3. Caring more for the people of your state and the country than about re-election and power
Political experience seems to me of almost no consequence at all. I'd like to know your reasons for thinking it is.
On the other hand I'm not sure the qualifications for public office require public policy experience. If you like Shilling's judgment as a player and a person, what makes you think he wouldn't make a good political leader?
Uh, Ronald Reagan, anyone?
Right, because our current crop of non-celebrities (Pelosi, Reid, Obama) is doing such a bang-up job.
I find this fairly plausible. That said, there are a few (admittedly not overwhelmingly powerful) factors which might cause a rational voter to be attracted to a celebrity candidate over an otherwise comparable non-celebrity candidate:
1) The belief that the voter has insight into the quality of the celebrity's character and/or intellect through long exposure to them
2) The belief that the celebrity's better-than-average connections will enable them to be more effective in office
3) The belief that the skills needed to cope effectively with celebrity have something in common with the skills needed to be a successful office-holder
I hope that Schilling's opponent in such a case would be smart enough not to say anything like that. I've seen it argued that the quoted line generated a lot of sympathy for Kennedy and may have contributed to his election.
First is sport figures. My impression is that candidates from the world of sports tend to turn out to be fairly decent. Jack Kemp was excellent. J.C. Watts was excellent. Bill Bradley was quite good. Steve Largent struck me as good, though I didn't follow him closely. Heath Shuler isn't horrible, and compared to his party leadership, looks positively steller. Those are all of the top of my head.
Entertainment figures seem to fare less well. Reagan was a colossus, and Fred Gandy wasn't bad, but they came from a different era. Today's crop of celebrities (who think their opinions are important just because they're famous) seem to usually be flops. Jesse Ventura and the Governator come to mind, and I have little doubt that Al Francken will follow them quickly.
Then there are the political heirs. Just like the 2nd and 3rd generation of family leadership in a business, some are good, but most aren't.
I'd give Schilling a pretty good chance of being a good legislator.
Because he knows very little about public policy, and probably lacks political skill. Being a good baseball player - or even a good person - say very little about whether you will be a good political leader.
Uh, Ronald Reagan, anyone?
Reagan was involved in political activism for some 15 years before he ran for governor of California in 1966. Unlike Schilling and others who go straight from nonpolitical celebrity into politics, Reagan had quite extensive political experience.
The author seems to think this is obviously true, but I just don't see it. To the extent that those with "genuine public policy experience" favor implementation of policies I dislike, why shouldn't I prefer an ex-baseball player who will obstruct those policies.
I'm not claiming that they're doing a great job, merely that electing celebrities with little or no knowledge public policy won't help matters and could make things worse.
They took Obama serious and his credentials for the presidency weren't any better.
Gary
The irony, of course, is that his opponent in the 1962 campaign to fill JFK's unexpired term was also trading on a famous family name--Edward J. McCormack, Jr. was the nephew of House Speaker John William McCormack (talk about the pot calling the kettle black.)
Ted Kennedy went on to defeat another who was trading on a famous family name--George Cabot Lodge II. GCL was the son of Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr., a former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts and the Republican Party candidate for Vice President in 1960. HCL, Jr. was defeated for reelection by JFK. His grandfather was Henry Cabot Lodge, Sr. who had defeated Kennedy's grandfather John F. Fitzgerald for the US Senate in 1916.
As an aside, a Schilling Republican candidacy will never happen. Though he campaigned for McCain and Bush, he is not a registered Republican in Massachusetts, and you must be a registered member of party for 90 days before the filing deadline in order to run in its primary, in this case it's Nov. 3rd. I guess he likes to see his name in print, though.
Can you list some "qualified" candidates and the current office holders you think weren't qualified?
Some have said that, "Man is a political animal." If man is a political animal, isn't a good man a good politician?
The special election will not be held in November. Governor Patrick has set the special election for January 19, 2010.
He was generally considered a successful congressman and certainly was influential in getting major legislation passed. As much as I dislike the law, he was fairly influential in getting copyright extended for a long time.
Talk about a low threshold.
The filing deadline is Nov. 3rd.
I don't care about his public policy experience. I don't care if he's relatively ignorant or even stupid. I don't care if he has no political experience. All I know is we're slightly less likely to have Big Government take over our health care if he (or any non-Democrat) gets elected.
If he does run, Schilling would instantly become a viable candidate - at least as viable as any conservative could be in strongly Democratic Massachusetts. Why would a candidate with no prior political experience and little apparent expertise in public policy be taken serious by voters?
While I generally agree with Ilya, I'm not sure we can chalk up a strong showing by Schilling to political ignorance. First, many voters in the US are critical of how professional politicians act, vote, run the country, etc. Indeed, Ilya has another post talking about Murtha's various pork-barrelling, which is extreme in quantity but is typical in quality for what many politicians do. Thus, voters might rationally want an "outsider" to become a politician. Of course, many candidates for elected office from Perot to McCain claim to be outsiders to politics and appear to attract voters who want people that are different from the current crop of politicians, but someone like Schilling truly is an outsider. Electing Schilling could be the result of voters rationally wanting a person who will act differently than the current run-of-the-mill politician.
Second, rational voters may want to elect people who do not see political office as the ultimate goal of their lives, but instead will serve a period of time and then return to private life. The battle in the mid-1990's over term limits concerned this issue. Going back farther, some state bills of rights pre-1788 had provisions regarding the people changing their politicians so that they would live under the laws they passed. A rational voter could believe that the quality of laws would be better if people elected to office serve briefly and again become private citizens instead of becoming life-long politicians. Frankly, I think most libertarians would agree with that position (though one could argue that it would exacerbate the influence of lobbyists who promise favors after the politician's term ends). A person like Schilling who has had another career for most of his life is more likely to serve briefly than someone with significant prior political experience of policy expertise.
Third, voters might rationally believe that someone like Schilling will be more responsive to his constituents than someone who has built up particular positions and beliefs over the course of a career in politics. In other words, someone who is a political novice will be less certain that he is right and more likely to be persuaded by a majority of the voters (which is to say the opposite of how Matt Yglesias apparently believes politicians should act from his blog post discussed here a few weeks ago).
Really? I thought he was well known for his spices. Or didn't he also play sports somewhere--I think it was baseball in Boston? And if he runs he will be accused of "waving the bloody
shirtsock!Today, there are a few thousand people playing it (a board game with a rulebook about 200 pages long)-enough to maintain it as a hobby (with conventions, and web meetings, etc), but probably not enough to maintain it as a continuously published product without his financial backing. Google 'multiman publishing' or 'Advanced Squad Leader' to learn more.
Sk
Shilling has been out there on political issues before, though of course one might not care for his politics...
Name recognition in MA is probably more important than his actual politics in terms of getting elected. That seems to be the case in many elections. But he has a record of expressing his views and then acting on them in a personal manner, not expecting the state to do all things for all people.
There's probably nothing that can be done. But it's important to recognise the incentives that relate to information flow as one of the limits on the democratic process. It's tough to run an effective operation when the people who ultimately choose the people who run the operation have no incentive to become informed about political matters.
Aristotle said it, and your suggestion might be correct for Athenian democracy. Unfortunately, our nation is vastly larger, our political system many times more complex, and our citizenry not reducible to the class of eudcated &propertied men.
As a leftie, he was very active in the peculiar politics of California in the 1930s. Obviously the SAG job was highly political too.
I wouldn't use her as an example of someone who isn't a member of a famous family.
Nick
Unlike Schilling and others who try to go straight from nonpolitical celebrity into electoral politics, Reagan had quite extensive political experience before seeking public office.
Of course, political experience and public policy expertise are in some sense distinct. Many politicians are good at politicking and administering (e.g., getting elected, forging coalitions to get bills passed, executing policy, etc.) but don't necessarily have the best grasp of public policy.
Ah, now I finally understand. A long heritage of mendacity and self-dealing in that lineage, I see.
the fact is a plurality of americans think that a random selection of persons from a phonebook would be better than the current congress. this is isn't ignorant; it is sensible
But let's not forget that he was also n owner of the Texas Rangers and then governor of Texas. Not a total unknown riding just on his father's name. (It didn't hurt though)
Seems right -- Schilling was a better pitcher.
I can't imagine Schilling would be any worse than your average congressperson. Certainly, anyone who's familiar with his speechifying would attest to his politician-level long-windedness.
I think Kurt Cobain* would make at least as good a senator as Jim Bunning.
(* in his current or past condition. It doesn't matter.)
We have government filled with those with "genuine public policy expertise". Its not a feature.
Who knows about Schilling but compared to Joe "Hugo" Kennedy II, he cannot possibly be worse.
There's no private sector experience in America that's a better qualification for this Congress than giving money to an unprofitable, unpopular, technologically obsolete organization that's produced a two thousand page rulebook.
Nick
Moreover, I think there are a substantial number of people who like someone who didn't spend his whole life in politics. That is the information that they are voting on, so it's a bit unfair to say that they are acting on ignorance.
Finally, I think its ironic that Prof. Somin, who appears to know nothing about Shillings opinions, would use this rumor as a sounding board for the ills of ignorance.
Also, electing "public policy experts" only to Congress would make our political class completely professionalized - more USSR than US thing.
Isn't there a distinction to be made here between "celebrity" and "achievement"? If you succeed at doing something difficult in one field, you might be able to do the same in another. I think this is more important than "genuine public policy expertise".
Any evidence this is true? Can you prove the majority of political hacks that make up Congress now are in some way more effective than a Steve Largent or a John Hall? A lot of politics is perspective as much as experience and retired athletes and entertainers at least bring a different point of view to the job.
I believe you're arguing about a theoretical world, where Congress is made up of qualified individuals, rather than the real world, where it's made up of people who somehow managed one way or another to get their names on the ballot.
I don't think that's right in this case. Schilling is a conservative. He would be running in a very liberal state - Obama got 62% of the vote. I don't see how it would be rational for MA voters to think that Schilling will be responsive to their concerns.
How many cases must there be of the locally famous athlete who on graduating from high school was given an entry level job far ahead of any of his cohort? Especially as a salesman, where his celebrity status could give him a leg up getting his foot in the door (a combined metaphor that actually works).
Harold Lloyd starred in a sequel to a movie he'd made many years earlier in which he was an accidental sudden college football hero and was told he had a guaranteed job when he graduated. In the sequel, he was still in that drudge of a job, because he never got promoted! But in political hiring -- elections -- frequently promotion isn't an issue because people go directly into a high office.
How about other kinds of celebrities and other kinds of jobs? Are celebrities not frequently sought out as members of the board of directors of non-profits? Suppose some former non-celebrity had gotten that airliner to land safely in Penna. on 9/11/01; would not that person have hir pick of jobs, no questions asked?
*********
There's an Advanced Squad Leader? Did this come about by slow accretion and acceptance of advanced rules over time to the original Squad Leader? Or did the publisher come out all at once with a set of advanced rules that had not come up from the grass roots of gamers? I'm familiar with advanced rules for plenty of games, but a 200 pp. rule book indicates a much higher than usual ratio of advanced to basic rules, counting sets of advanced rules that are self-consistent rather than incompatible variants.
Not only have computer games killed proprietary table games (except for the simplest of them), now the graphic orientation of computer games seems to have killed text-oriented computer games. A friend of mine died a few years ago, David Lindelof (father of Lost's Damon), whose excellent amateur game designs (playable, funny and/or satiric, pretty to look at and use, and in the case of those for mgmt. training, instructional) included a category that was only rarely represented in commercial games: computer-aided table games, or hybrid computer-board or cyber-physical games.
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