We live in a partisan world, of course, and so it is no surprise when partisan Republicans attack Richard Clarke. But I find the attacks from Rush Limbaugh and other partisans particularly disappointing.
For most aspects of economic and social policy, ordinary citizens have access to the same data as the decisionmakers (e.g., unemployment figures, or rates of marriage among teenagers, or whatever). So we feel, justifiably, that we can make some judgments on our own about the wisdom of economic and social policy choices. We may be overconfident about our abilities in this regard, but there are data for our judgments. So when a former official comes forward and makes claims about the real actions and motivations of decisionmakers (e.g., the Administration wanted to help/hurt the rich/poor, and took X actions to effectuate that goal), we can evaluate those claims. The actions will generally be a matter of public record, and we can probably make some educated guesses about the motivations. At the same time, most citizens will not bother to engage in any detailed evaluations. So it does not seem outlandish that a sophisticated commentator might decide that she will take the time to analyze the former official’s claims and then present her conclusions to the world. Many pundits do not engage in such careful analysis, but the point is that there is a role for such analysis by commentators, even if in execution it does not live up to its promise.
The situation is quite different for matters of national security. As every administration notes (e.g., the Bush Administration with respect to Iraq, the Clinton and Bush Administrations with respect to their actions against Al-Qaeda), much of the information that informs their decisions is classified. Their argument is that they cannot reveal this information, because that would compromise national security. This argument strikes me as legitimate (and as a former DOJ lawyer, how could I believe otherwise?), but it means that those outside a pretty small circle of government decisionmakers are in the dark about the data that inform Administration actions. Indeed, the rest of us often do not know what actions have been taken (because they are secret).
This means that, when a former key member of the policymaking team comes forward with an account of actions taken and not taken, and of the underlying data available to the decisionmakers, very few people have any basis for evaluating that account. The only competent evaluators are other members of that small circle. This also means that, if two members of that circle disagree on a question of fact, the rest of us have little basis for choosing one account over the another unless they give us more information (i.e., the basis for their factual assertions). If former key official A says X, and current key official B says not-X, it is hard to justify accepting either X or not-X. We can try to assess their motivations — maybe the former official has an axe to grind, maybe the current official wants to deflect blame and/or protect the President (and thus remain in power) — but A) that assessment is unlikely to yield a clear winner, in terms of credibility, and B) it doesn’t address the basic question of whether or not X is true. Ideally, both sides will put forward not only their factual assertions but also the basis for them, giving us more information on which to ground our own conclusions.
What’s particularly striking in the case of Richard Clarke, though, is that the Administration has not made much of an effort to tell the “not-X” story, much less given us a factual basis for believing the “not-X” story. By and large the Administration has not been contesting Clarke’s factual assertions — and some of their attempts in that regard have backfired (such as Hadley’s suggestion to 60 Minutes that Bush did not meet with Clarke in the situation room on September 12, a meeting that has now been confirmed). We don’t have X versus not-X, so much as X versus “X is not as it seems in context.” And the Administration has given us little factual basis for believing even that story. The Administration’s version may be the correct one, but those of us outside the small circle of policy makers have little basis for so concluding.
In light of all the above, those outside that small circle who are seeking to dismiss Clarke’s allegations seem to be on particularly weak ground. He has made very serious allegations and put forward the basis for them, and thus far the Administration has done little to rebut them. Indeed, as Brad DeLong ably catalogues, many of the Administration’s responses contradict one another (in fact, many statements by the same Administration official are inconsistent). Until the Administration responds more directly to his allegations (and the basis for them), I can’t see the basis on which some can dismiss them. Commentators’ dismissals appear to be a matter of faith, not reason.
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