Parapundit.com, the insightful polymath Randall Parker, cites a friend as offering the following recipe:
“I’d partition the country into three areas, Kurd, Sunni, Shia. I’d draw those lines in the middle of nowhere and put my troops there so the troops would be out of the cities. I’d then take the strongest group in each area and say “its yours, but don’t dare mess with our guard lines”. Leave the country formally a single republic and give them each representation on a council to talk to each other about things they will have in common (assuming they do). Then tell each of them that they are personally responsible for the safety of the aid organizations and reconstruction, and expend lots of propaganda broadcast time interviewing their leader, their chief of police/militia, and their local ministers of health, education etc. on what their plans are and how they invite foreigners to work on their projects. Let them direct the projects (behind the scenes, insist on some proportion of schools, roads, etc) but not handle the budget (but pay them ample salaries and perks, so their graft is tolerable and formally legal). Any project not successfully kept safe by the militia (not a US soldier in sight) is irrevocably cancelled along with the salaries of the administration. Let them figure out how to keep the hotheads from spoiling the gravy train. Divvy up oil revenues from a national corporation proportional to population, distributed at as low a level (heck, per family checks) as possible. Form a small national army and train it with the occupying troops, out in the middle of nowhere, in desegregated regiments. Build nice barracks facilities they won’t want to dismantle, and dismantle the old ones in cities. After a year or two, as projects wind up, reduce the border US forces to observer levels and invite the UN in to share the familiar peacekeeping role. Arrange national elections on a federation style constitution. Invite the neighbors to the party (who in the meantime, you have been as constructive with as possible). Let the resulting governement kick the peacekeepers out, which they will, and see what unfolds. Don’t pretend you ever had a chance of controlling it anyway.”
Those ideas may well be imperfect, but at least they pay heed to the notion of positive incentives. Right now the Iraqis have very little ownership in what goes on, whether literally, metaphorically, or otherwise. This is starting to change, but there is much we could do to accelerate this process along.
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