Here are some good links to how economic models are calling the forthcoming Presidential election. Not surprisingly, the recovering economy is seen as favoring Bush.
Do we have any reason to think these models will be less accurate this time around? I can think of at least one scenario. Perhaps a healthy economy persuades many swing voters. Arguably this election cycle is more partisan than usual. In this view, it is about delivering high turnout for the base, rather than reaching the median voter. The economy might matter less for turnout of the core base. Instead the emotional “hot-button” issues, such as gay marriage and Iraq, may play bigger roles. And of course the economic models do not pick up such factors.
Until the recent prisoner scandals, I was calling this election as a shoo-in for Bush. Now I am less certain. I read the American public as willing to take real military losses for the war, but they don’t enjoy feeling like the bad guys.
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