Did the recent judicial appointments deal — in which the Democrats promised to let through some relatively uncontroversial judicial nominees in exchange for the Bush Administration’s promise not to make recess appointments until the next inauguration (whether of Bush or of someone else) — give the Bush Administration more than what they had before they started making recent appointments? If so, it would be something of a political victory for Bush. Or did it just free up nominees who were bottled up because of the recess appointments, and who would have been confirmed this year anyway had Bush not started the recess appointments? If so, it would be something of a political defeat for Bush.
I had thought the answer was the former, because I thought that even some of the noncontroversial appointees were being held up, partly because the Democrats figured they could do it, and partly because in recent years, people have generally tended to get held up in the last year of a Term (so long as the other party has had the power to hold them up). But various correspondents have suggested that the answer is the latter. Byron York at NRO likewise agrees.
I’m not expert enough on the politics of the matter to have a confident opinion (and I don’t have the time to try to acquire one now), and given these counterarguments, I think I ought to withdraw even my tentative opinion. Perhaps the matter is yet more complex than the York column describes — for now, let me just say that I no longer have any confidence in my earlier stated view.
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