A reader says that suspending a driver’s license because the driver told his doctor that he drank over a six-pack of beer a day “[s]ounds like the movie ‘Minority Report.'” “[B]ecause you like to have a few beers, even a few too many beers, you’re considered guilty of driving drunk before the fact?” I’m not sure the state is right to suspend the license in that situation, but I think it’s important to keep a sense of perspective here.
What troubles most people about the “Minority Report” situation, in which people are prosecuted for murder because “precogs” (people with special powers of precognition) say that they’re going to commit murder, is that someone is prosecuted because of what they were supposedly going to do, not because of what they actually did. Even that isn’t necessarily troubling: I think we’re quite right to prosecute someone for attempting to commit a crime, even if they don’t take the final step (which, if I recall correctly, is what happened in at least one of the incidents depicted in the movie).
Sure, there’s some uncertainty about whether the person was really going to go through with the crime. But if the police catch someone sitting at his window pointing a rifle at someone, with a finger on the trigger, and then an investigation shows that the person was almost certainly planning to kill the person, I think prosecuting the person for attempted murder is just fine. Some amount of “precognition” is a normal part of the legal system.
Likewise, say that someone goes to the doctor’s office and says “I’m having these seizures every day or two; I just black out for a few seconds.” It may be “precognition” that the person might well black out while driving, but it’s a pretty sensible precognition. Similarly, if someone fails a driver’s test, it’s “precognition” that the person will likely be a bad driver, but it’s again a pretty sensible precognition. Nor is it “consider[ing the person] guilty of driving [recklessly] before the fact.” No-one is being found guilty, or sent to jail. Rather, the person is being judged to be the sort of driver who ought not be given a license.
If you think everyone should have a right to drive, at least until they commit a serious traffic offense, then you’d think that both of these people should be on the road until they’re caught doing something dangerous. But if you think that driving on the public roads is something that should be licensed, and licenses should be given only to those who the licensing authorities think will be safe drivers (though with the authorities’ discretion suitably cabined, so they can’t just refuse licenses to people they don’t like), then “precognition” is precisely what you’re endorsing: You’re calling for a judgment, before the person kills someone or does something else that seems likely to kill someone, that the person is likely an unsafe driver.
One could, of course, argue that having over a six-pack a day (as opposed to having daily seizures) might not make the person that dangerous a driver. Among other things, if a 175-lb. man drinks a beer every two hours, for a total of 9 hours in a 16-hour stretch, he will generally not be anywhere near drunk enough to be over the legal limit at any time during that stretch. Likewise, if he only drinks at home after work, and doesn’t drive until he gets up in the morning, he may likewise be OK (though if he drinks enough right before bed, he might wake up drunk). So it’s hard to tell how dangerous he will be.
But the principle of driver’s licensing — which is definitely not the principle of criminal punishments, quite a different matter from licensing schemes — is precisely that the licensing authorities should exercise some “precognition” (albeit guided and not entirely discretionary) about who is likely to be a safe enough driver and who isn’t. Maybe we should change principles, or maybe the principle should cut in favor of allowing the person to keep his license here. But analogizing to “Minority Report”‘s use of precognition for criminal punishment is quite a stretch; and the analogy is just as apt when a license is denied when the person fails a test, or is found to be prone to frequent seizures.
Comments are closed.