Earlier this week I heard a provocative talk on migration by Philip Martin of the University of California at Davis. In short, Martin argued that pressure for international migration will increase in coming decades for both demographic and economic reasons. Incomes are substantially higher, and population density is lower, in industrialized nations, making them more attractive places to live than many developing countries. Moreover, the income gap between rich and poor nations appears to be on the rise. At the same time, technology and globalization have made it easier for people to cross borders. Combined, these factors suggest a substantial increase in global migration.
Efforts to restrict or control immigration have generally failed, Martin suggested, in part because “people are very difficult to manage” and they fail to address the causes of population shifts. If anything it will be even more difficult to control national borders in the future than it is today, particularly without increased economic development in the developing world.
Martin also suggested that escalating immigration, legal and otherwise, could force industrialized nations to scale back their welfare programs. This could improve assimilation, however, as participation in the labor force is a powerful integrative force. I don’t know much about immigration policy, but it was a provocative talk.
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