There are hints of a very slight move toward Bush in recent polls. As usual, RealClearPolitics.com is a good place to follow trends. At the moment they show recent polls averaging 49.0% for Bush, 45.2% for Kerry among likely voters. This is influenced by the latest Gallup poll, showing 52% for Bush, 44% for Kerry. Given Gallup’s wide swings in the last month, it is hard to credit that poll too much.
Although the 3.8% average difference is within the margin of error for one poll, it is probably just outside the margin of error if one were to combine these polls using meta-analytic techniques.
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