This is a close race, and I’ll certainly agree that Bush may well lose it. But the pro-Kerry inference that some people are drawing from 50-49 exit polls strikes me as mighty odd.
I suspect the mathematical margin of error on those polls is at least +/-3%. Add to that the margin of error that flows from the possible differences between the late afternoon vote and the earlier vote, or between those who like to talk to pollsters and those who don’t, and the 1% difference is way, way within the margin of error. Even if you are looking for 70% confidence rather than 95% confidence, the exit polls can’t give you that.
People desperately want to know the future now, even if the future is only several hours away. But let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that these are anything more than wild conjectures. And, yes, I’d have said exactly the same thing if Bush were up by 1% in those exit polls.
UPDATE: The same applies to 51-49 exit polls as well as the 50-49s.
FURTHER UPDATE: Exit polls also don’t include absentee ballots.
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