Someone I was talking to at 4 pm Pacific today — a thoughtful and intelligent person who knows quite a bit about probabilities and predictions — predicted that by 9 pm Pacific the major networks would be calling a winner. (He said he believed this with 80% certainty; I set aside the mathematico-philosophical debates about what exactly that means.)
I am skeptical, given that the election in many states seems likely to be within the margin of error of the exit polls (though I hope not within the margin of error of the balloting technology). I doubt that the exit polls and the early returns will give people enough to call the national race with any confidence by then. I hope that it would be called when most of the returns are in considerably later tonight. I fear that we won’t know the answer until a good deal of recount-related activity and litigation takes place.
But if by 9 pm Pacific a winner is announced, I’ll happily eat crow (though perhaps tomorrow morning, since I probably won’t have a chance to blog tonight).
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