From an AP story yesterday:
[An AP] poll found that 59 percent [of respondents] say Bush should choose a nominee who would uphold the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion. . . . 31 percent, said they want a nominee who would overturn the decision . . . .
Sounds pretty striking (and I should note that it’s important even given the substantial correction that I note below). But here’s what the poll actually asked, courtesy of the ever-valuable PollingReport.com:
“As you may know, President Bush may have the opportunity to appoint several new justices to the U.S. Supreme Court during his second term. The 1973 Supreme Court ruling called Roe v. Wade made abortion in the first three months of pregnancy legal. Do you think President Bush should nominate Supreme Court justices who would uphold the Roe v. Wade decision, or nominate justices who would overturn the Roe v. Wade decision?”
But wait — Roe didn’t just make abortion in the first three months of pregnancy legal. It also made it legal at any time before viability (limiting government regulation to that related to protecting “maternal health”); the Court said viability would be at about six or seven months (though over time, the line has moved up a bit, as the 1992 Casey decision recognized). I suspect that such months-four-to-six abortions would be considerably more controversial than ones in months one through three.
Now I should say the poll is still pretty significant, because it shows broad support for the constitutional protection of first-trimester abortions. But it doesn’t show equal support for all aspects of Roe, especially its protection of second-trimester abortions. And while I realize that poll questions have to be kept simple, (1) I suspect that the polltakers shouldn’t have oversimplified things this much — to the point of material inaccuracy — and (2) at least they should alert media organizations that the question contains this oversimplification.
And, of course, this is yet another reminder to be highly skeptical of media reports of surveys. Good thing that PollingReport.com now lets us check them more closely, though I suspect that no more than a tiny percentage of readers will ever check them this closely.
Incidentally, when will news organizations that post online stories actually start linking to the survey text?
UPDATE: Reader Paul N. points me to another poll, this one also on Pollingreport.com, done in January 2003:
“Thinking more generally: Do you think abortion should generally be legal or generally illegal during each of the following stages of pregnancy? How about [see below]?”
Legal Illegal Depends (volunteered) No Opinion “In the first three months of pregnancy” 66% 29% 3% 2% “In the second three months of pregnancy” 25% 68% 4% 3% “In the last three months of pregnancy” 10% 84% 4% 2%
More evidence, I think, that “would uphold the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision” isn’t the same as “would uphold a right to abortion in the first three months of pregnancy.”
Note also that the question might also yield a different result if it were made clear that though “Roe v. Wade decision . . . legalized abortion” in 1973 — a few states, including California and New York had already legalized abortion, but throughout most of the nation it was largely illegal — overruling Roe wouldn’t criminalize abortion as such, but would just leave the matter to the states (most of which would likely leave it legal in the first three months). But I’m not sure about that. I do strongly suspect, though, that describing Roe accurately, as protecting abortions in the first six months (or at least first five months, depending on where the viability line is drawn) rather than just in the first three months, would indeed yield a different result.
Of course, none of this goes to what the right answer should be, constitutionally, statutorily, or morally. I am speaking here only of misleading survey reports.
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