As I noted the other day, a fight over any Supreme Court nominee is inevitable because the interest groups already have the money and it is earmarked for this purpose (what are they going to do, give it back? decide not to run the ads they have planned?).
Perhaps the best analogy is World War I–once the first domino falls (O’Connor’s retirement) the alliances on both sides will take on a life of their own.
Michael Barone predicts a fight for similar reasons:
Nor is there any indication that People for the American Way or the Alliance for Justice will not oppose any Bush nominee with every ounce of strength they have.
These groups exist for the purpose of defeating Republican judicial nominees, and their financial supporters — the big money people and those sending in small amounts in response to direct mail appeals — would be furious if they meekly accept a Bush appointee as Republican senators accepted Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg when they were nominated by Bill Clinton. Not opposing nominees would be an act of self-destruction for these groups, and Washington lobbying groups are not in the habit of self-destruction.
As for Democratic senators, they have almost unanimously accepted direction from these groups. As independent-minded and candid a senator as Russ Feingold of Wisconsin was seen reading questions to a Bush nominee off the papers supplied by these groups. A major Democratic constituency, the feminist left, expects a fight against any Bush nominee. The Democratic senators surely will not disappoint.
This means that Democrats will filibuster any Bush nominee, while the left groups attempt to tar them with any charge they can dream up.
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