In reviewing the betting at Tradesports (the Irish betting/trading outfit; on the left side of its main page, click on “Legal”), the probability that President Bush will nominate a Hispanic for the US Supreme Court is about half, with the probability that he will pick a woman about one-third. This suggests what should be obvious–that in filling Justice O’Connor’s seat on the Court, Bush is highly unlikely to pick a white male.
The current (10:15pm ET) bid-ask spreads are:
1. Gonzales 25.0/31.0
2. Garza 23.1/24.1
3. Brown 13.1/13.7
4. Luttig 10.2/11.3
I was not surprised to see Justice O’Connor resign before Chief Justice Rehnquist (she is less tenacious and less vain), but since both had not fully followed their prior practices in choosing clerks for the distant future, I expected resignations from both sometime between late June 2005 and October 2006. Perhaps Rehnquist will wait only until Bush nominates O’Connor’s successor or until that successor is confirmed. As to why Rehnquist might wait even if he intends to step down soon, perhaps he does not want to give Bush the freedom to cut a compromise deal on a pair of nominees. Perhaps he wants to see how nasty the fight will be, or how good Bush’s judgment is in picking a replacement. Or perhaps Rehnquist is hoping for another justice joining the court in order to try to resurrect a legacy on federalism, in which case Rehnquist might hang on another year.
Personally, I think Rehnquist should step down now. He is the longest-serving justice currently sitting, having been appointed by President Nixon. (As I have argued before, I think justices should not serve for three decades on the Court (I favor 18 year terms).) Last, of course, Rehnquist was very sick this year.
UPDATE: Ann Althouse is suggesting that Gonzales may be the choice of the women in Bush’s life.
Comments are closed.