[UPDATE: The post below reflected the betting consensus early to mid afternoon. By 5:50pm ET, the betting at Tradesports.com had switched, and the favorite was Edith Jones of the 5th Circuit (40-52%), not Edith Clement (19-29%).]
ORIGINAL POST:
According to Tradesports.com betting, Bush will choose Edith Clement to fill the O’Connor vacancy on the Supreme Court. The odds on all other nominees have collapsed. The last trade on Clement was at 88 (an 88% probabilty), and the current bid/ask spread is bid 60 / ask 85.5. So, according to the traders at Tradesports.com, there is a 60%-85.5% probability that Bush will choose Clement.
The next highest bids are Jones (5.2) and Owen (5.1), followed by Gonzales at 3.0.
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