Prowling around the web while taking a break, I stumbled across some interesting information on the Republican Presidential nomination that I figured I’d pass along.
If I’m reading the most recent set of polls correctly, it looks like the major impact of a Fred Thompson entry into the race for the Republican nomination would be to draw from John McCain. In fact, the RCP Poll average has Thompson now leading McCain and eyeballing the chart it looks like Thompson’s recent rise in the poll largely mirrors McCain’s fall.
Of course, this is all national data. Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire look somewhat different, as Romney does much better in those state polls than nationwide (John Edwards has a similar scenario on the Democratic side in Iowa).
One interesting observation is that Rudy Giuliani seems to be polling unusually well in Florida, compared to other states. This may be in part because of one factor I hadn’t previously consideredthe high level of migration of New Yorkers into Florida:
The 2000 Census revealed that, between 1995 and 2000 alone, 308,000 people moved from New York to Florida