As the first exit polls are discussed, only certain internal questions are reported. Among them is the percentage thinking that they are better off than four years ago. AP is reporting that only 25% of voters in exit polls report being better off. That contrasts with a Gallup Poll of two weeks ago showing 38% feeling better off than four years ago.
If a smaller percentage (a 13% drop) feeling better off means that the rest are more likely to vote for Romney, then this might indicate that Romney will perform better than expected. (Gallup didn’t report the results on its website in a way that would permit me to check this reasonable assumption.)
UPDATE (from EV): Jim asked me to post this:
While I was preparing analyses of other exit poll questions, most of which tend to be good news for Obama, my computer crashed. Until I return to Chicago in a few hours, I will not be able to provide the updated analyses I had hoped to add.
2D UPDATE (from JL): Among the analyses that I was working on before my computer crashed was one whether the country was on the Right Track or Wrong Track. The percentage on the right track was considerably higher than in pre-election polls, a very good sign for Obama.
The most interesting pro-Obama internal result of an exit poll that I heard in the last 90 minutes is that in New Hampshire, Obama was leading among independents by 8%. Even if these results were to be off by a few percent, if they are even close to accurate (and I assume they are), I don’t see how Romney could win New Hampshire.
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