Over at ConfirmThem, Jan Crawford Greenburg is doing a very interesting Q&A (part 1 here, part 2 here, part 3 coming soon) that includes the following:
Given the current political climate, who do you think President Bush will nominate to the Court if a third SCOTUS retirement occurs during his presidency?
Answer: Janice Rogers Brown or Maureen Mahoney. Now I know you’re asking how in the world I could possibly mention those two very different contenders in one breath, right? Ok, here’s why: It all depends on which justice leaves and when. President Bush will tap a solid judicial conservative (i.e., Brown) if he gets a nomination this year. He wants to change the subject, and this is about the only issue he’s got left to rally the base. (If you guys can think of another issue that will keep conservatives together with Bush, let me know.) Judge Brown would be an exciting nominee: She’s getting very high marks from colleagues on the D.C. Circuit, and her experience, compelling life story and demeanor (she’s fast on her feet and would be a terrific witness) would present those moderate southern Democrats (there are still a few of them) with a very difficult choice. . . .
The closer we get to 2008, the better are Maureen Mahoney’s odds, because she’s a conservative who could get confirmed.
Obviously Bush would be able to nominate whoever he wants if an opening occurred, so I take Greenburg’s take to be her best guess of what would happen rather than who would necessarily be the smartest pick. Still, my own completely uninformed pet theory for who Bush might nominate if he has an opening is Senator John Cornyn.
To be clear, I don’t know enough about Cornyn’s personal relationship with the President or his Senate colleagues to know if this is even a remote possibility. But from my outsider perspective it seems to me that Cornyn could be a very savvy pick. He’s an undisputed conservative; he’s a former state Supreme Court Justice with 13 years of experience as a judge and experience in all three branches of government; and he is someone who I gather would be relatively hard for the Senate to reject (as a Senator himself). If the President wants a confirmable solid conservative, Cornyn would seem to be a very good pick if a vacancy occurs.
Of course, John Cornyn is a man, baby, and perhaps the President would not consider naming another man to the Court in the event of a vacancy. I don’t see how the politics line up for such a judgment, but the President would of course be free to make that call. And if Supreme Conflict is a reliable guide, the President has a genuine commitment to gender diversity and would likely not want to nominate another man.