I have an article up on NRO this morning examining the potential implications of the Presidential election on the composition of the federal appellate courts. In it, I suggest that the next President is likely to have a greater effect on the federal appellate courts than on the U.S. Supreme Court, particularly if Barack Obama occupies the Oval Office.
Right now, just over one-third of active judges on the U.S. Courts of Appeals were nominated by President Bush, and just over one-half were nominees of a Republican President. This is what one would expect given that Bush has been in office for eight years, and that Republicans have occupied the White House for 20 of the past 30 years. Yet given the courts’ composition, it is possible that a President Obama could select nearly a third of the appellate judiciary in just his first term. A President McCain, on the other hand, would be somewhat limited in his ability to expand the percentage of Republican nominees (particularly those who would be considered “conservative”) because of Democratic control of the Senate.