Late Monday Night, Nov. 6
According to the betting at Iowa Electronic Markets, the Republicans have about a 70% chance of retaining the Senate.
According to the betting at Tradesports, the Republicans have a 66-69% chance of retaining the Senate, which is down from a few days ago.
Yet the Democrats are ahead in all of Tradesports’ closest Senate races (probabilities are approximate, within the bid/ask spreads):
Implicit Probability of Democratic Victory in contested Senate Races:
VA: 57%
MO: 60%
RI: 66%
MD: 73%
MT: 77%
The closest race in which Republicans are leading is TN: 15% probability of Democratic victory.
I look at such things because I’m terrible at predicting elections myself. If I were inclined to bet on this election, I would take the 7 to 3 odds and bet on a Democratic takeover of the Senate, since I think that the chance of the Democrats taking the Senate is closer to 50/50, even though the Iowa Markets are almost always correct.