Democrats Favored in Betting on Individual Senate Races, But Not for Taking the Senate.–

Late Monday Night, Nov. 6

According to the betting at Iowa Electronic Markets, the Republicans have about a 70% chance of retaining the Senate.

According to the betting at Tradesports, the Republicans have a 66-69% chance of retaining the Senate, which is down from a few days ago.

Yet the Democrats are ahead in all of Tradesports’ closest Senate races (probabilities are approximate, within the bid/ask spreads):

Implicit Probability of Democratic Victory in contested Senate Races:



VA: 57%

MO: 60%

RI: 66%

MD: 73%

MT: 77%

The closest race in which Republicans are leading is TN: 15% probability of Democratic victory.

I look at such things because I’m terrible at predicting elections myself. If I were inclined to bet on this election, I would take the 7 to 3 odds and bet on a Democratic takeover of the Senate, since I think that the chance of the Democrats taking the Senate is closer to 50/50, even though the Iowa Markets are almost always correct.

Powered by WordPress. Designed by Woo Themes